[PeakingAroundtheCorner]

Where is the absolute bottom. I read here somewhere that it's $110. But here we are just one dollar from breaking that supposed limit.

Are we completely discredited now? What is causing oil to go down? What happens below $110? Will people begin buying SUVs again?

Almost everything I've read here in the past months is now being smashed. How much money have you lost in this process?

[firestarter]

Well, if we get a global depression, or real deep recession, then oil could bottom well below what you're seeing now. My WAG for the short term, pre election, is somewhere in the $90's, but I wouldn't be shocked to see a temporary 80's or even 70's print. Think back to fall 2006 when GS did their reweighing in the energy complex if you need an example of short term moves to the down side. It is an election year. Strange things happen in this environment.

[ROCKMAN]

Peak,

It all depends on your time frame. Oil at $110 is right where I projected it to be. I don't plot oil on a monthly let alone a daily basis. At a minimum I use a 6 month running average. A 12 month RA is even better. On a RA basis oil would be around $110 right now. It did bump higher for a while just as it bumped lower for a while some months ago. using a RA takes the edges of those bumps. Remember: the avg oil price in July, despite the drop towards the end of the month, was still higher than the June avg. That made a 7 month run in increasing oil prices. Now Aug will be another matter. Probably not higher than July but probably not too much lower. If the running avg holds true at the end of the year oil will be back up around $140 - $150. That's not a prediction, mind you...just a projection of the RA. Any number of unpredictable events could cause a spike up or down at the end of the year.

[sjn]

It's bouncing around the 200 day MA. Kudos to those who predicted it! I expected an earlier and stronger rebound.

Lost money? Short-term commodities trading is a mugs game!

[Evan]

I think you're missing the idea of peak oil completely. There are several reasons why the price of oil has gone down, speculation plays a big role. Its not just as simple as the 'oil price up = bad, oil price low = good' mentality that so many people have.

Too many people see the price rise $30 and think it is the end of the world, then see it drop and act like everything is perfect.

I'm not sure what you mean when you say we "are just one dollar from breaking that supposed limit."?

[kiwichick]

PATC when everyones selling thats a good time to start looking

as warren buffett says its like being an oversexed guy in a whorehouse

you don't know where to start first!!!

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', 'W')here is the absolute bottom. I read here somewhere that it's $110. But here we are just one dollar from breaking that supposed limit.

Are we completely discredited now? What is causing oil to go down? What happens below $110? Will people begin buying SUVs again?

Almost everything I've read here in the past months is now being smashed. How much money have you lost in this process?

[Ferretlover]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', 'A')re we completely discredited now? What is causing oil to go down? What happens below $110? Will people begin buying SUVs again? Almost everything I've read here in the past months is now being smashed.

[Micki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', 'W')here is the absolute bottom. I read here somewhere that it's $110. But here we are just one dollar from breaking that supposed limit.
Are we completely discredited now? What is causing oil to go down? What happens below $110? Will people begin buying SUVs again?
Almost everything I've read here in the past months is now being smashed. How much money have you lost in this process?

[TheDude]

Tcha. This won't be 1986 redux - where you going to get that glut of oil from? Consumers and peak oil are in a real ugly abusive relationship here.

Not obsessed with the day to day specifics of the time scale as I'm not an investor. I'm thinking we have a few more years of really unstable BAU, now's the time to prep.

[gnm]

Obviously its because of the massive new supplies being found. Or the huge increases in production...

/sarcasm

What I don't get is how the dollar is managing to gain so much. Inexplicable.

-G

[Ronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'N')o matter what anybody says, oil is a finite resource and it is still being consumed at an amazing pace by the entire planet. Patience, grasshopper.

[ROCKMAN]

evan,

You make some good points but pay attention to the time frames some of us use. In my world oil prices are not down when plotted on a 6+ month running average. They've been steadily climbing for many months. Ups and owns along the way but the trend (over periods of months) has been up. I don't trade futures so I could care less if it's lower today then it was last week or even last month. I'm in the business of selling oil/gas at the well head. We make decisions on price forecasts 1 to 5 years out. Talk about predicting the unpredictable!

And I'll point out again: I don't "predict" oil prices....way to complex. But plotting trends is easy. What to do with those trends is another matter, of course.

[joeltrout]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', 'W')here is the absolute bottom.

[ROCKMAN]

Micki,

I read a post this morning from a guy who seemed to understand weather patterns and had his finger on the current meteorological data base. He said that the jet stream had been turning the depressions northward for the most part this season. But the data also suggests a rapid swing in the jet stream will soon start guiding them into the GOM. You players might want to dig for some confirmation.

[ROCKMAN]

To back up Joel's point there was a silver lining to the price drop for me too. I've been wanting to buy a couple of oils for a few months. When oil fell those stocks dropped 25 - 30%. They still looked good on the high end but who wants to buy there. As others just said: the fundamentals haven't changed. The market will always be schizo... but Mother Nature doesn't lie.

Unlike Joel I was never interested in day trading. But if we see oil doing the see saw act for a while I might be tempted.

[Carlhole]

Oil Seen Dropping Under $90 by Year End
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barron's', ' ')First Global
OIL AT $30-$50 A BARREL? We don't know about you, but this wouldn't surprise us at all.
Our Quant side flagged the move in crude oil prices on May 30. They were, as nearly always, right on the money. And now it's time for the data crunchers like us to get into action. It is our firm belief that crude oil represents a true bubble. The tests of a true bubble are that it should have little connection with fundamental data; that the bubble's very existence should create ample nonsensical stories as to why the bubble is for ..

[AirlinePilot]

I think folks are forgetting we've been here before. The only difference is the swings are larger due to the level of the price. Do not pay attention to the man behind the curtain.

Watching day to day and week to week swings in price are not healthy and investing that way is not going to be very lucrative. Its more like gambling.

As others have pointed out where is the commensurate demand destruction?

Where is the huge increase in supply?

Without these, the price moves are not warranted and the only thing you can bet on is that wild swings, both ways will continue. Now If oil prices can stay lower over the longer haul, thats when to start paying attention to why. Right now the fools rushing in to say "All is well" are the real crazies.

Nothing fundamentally has changed over the short term,and as most of us tend to agree here, the longer term shows little promise of turning the current paradigm of consumption around.

Patience is the watchword.

[joeltrout]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'U')nlike Joel I was never interested in day trading. But if we see oil doing the see saw act for a while I might be tempted.

[ROCKMAN]

Joel,

That's exactly the game plan I'm thinking about. For months one of my oil seesawed up and down 10% or so evry coule of weeks until this last big drop. With cheap and easy online trading you can collect those small gains and reinvest. I didn't calc what I would have made over those several months but it would have easily been 20% per annum. I hoping it's ready to start that cycle again.