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THE Heating Oil Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Unread postby Homesteader » Wed 13 Aug 2008, 13:23:56

sorry, you've gone on the ignore list.
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heat

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 13 Aug 2008, 13:29:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')
Of course. I'm just pointing out that it isn't very useful to lament about the absence of oilfields producing royalties that might be used for heating assistance in New England without facing the reality that liberal politicians from New England are blocking offshore oil exploration in New England.

Your ignorance of this political reality is surprising....I wonder if lots of people in New England don't understand this simple political reality. 8)


Your ignorance of reality is not surprising to many here. Read a little further down the thread. . . . Exploration occurred and the results were conclusive that there is little oil to be found.


??? Exploration has already occured offshore from New England? Seismic work was done and drilling occurred? When was that, pray tell?

Sadly, some people will probably believe your silly lie. However, in reality the vast majority of the offshore areas of New England, and all of the deepwater areas, have never been explored for oil. The area has been closed by Congress for almost three decades, and as a result there has been no modern seismic imaging, no leasing, and no drilling to explore for oil in areas offshore from New England.

Cheers! :roll:
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Wed 13 Aug 2008, 13:45:12

Image

There was a major oil field found off the coast of Eastern Canada that is currently producing a sizeable amount of oil.

There's no reason to automatically assume that the coast of Maine or Massachusetts is completely devoid of oil.

I doubt there's enough oil there to have a major impact on US heating oil supplies, but it's certainly something to investigate.

Even if we only find a billion barrels of oil...that's $115 billion worth of oil. 8)
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 13 Aug 2008, 14:01:01

Thanks Tyler. Its important to realize that the Canadians are finding oil in offshore areas just north of New England.

Some of the confusion evidenced here about the oil potential offshore from New England may be deliberate obfuscation, but some it probably stems from a lack of knowledge about the nature of the local geology. The offshore geology in New England is completely different then the geology on land.

There isn't a great deal of potential for oil in onshore areas of New England, because the rocks found throughout most of New England are metamorphic and were formed during at least five different mountain building events, including the Late Ordovician Taconic, the Late Silurian to Early Devonian Acadian (420-385 Ma), the Late Devonian to Early Mississippian Quaboagian (370-350 Ma), the Late Pennsylvanian Northfieldian (305-285 Ma), and the Permian Alleghenian (270-260 Ma) (Robinson et al., 1998).

The rocks in the offshore areas around New England are quite different. The structures in these areas were formed during Mesozoic extension associated with the opening of the modern Atlantic. Marine sediments collected in these structures, and such sediments can produce oil. These kind of tectonic areas are called "passive margins" and huge amounts of oil are being found and produced from marine rocks off Norway, Scotland, Nigeria, Brazil, Texas, Louisianna and many other places with similar geologic histories. And, as Tyler shows just above, the Canadians are developing significant oil fields in offshore areas just north of New England.

Structures offshore from New England might be very large--- faulting with vertical displacements as great as 8 km dating to this period occur onland in New England, for instance at the Connecticut Valley Border Fault. Extensional structures of similar size may also occur in offshore areas, but we won't know until geophysical surveys are done. Even then, we won't know if oil is present until we explore further by drilling the large structures. Even then we won't know how much oil is present until we further delineate the structure by additional drilling. And, of course, we'll never know unless Nancy Pelosi and the Congressional dems relent and allow the Congress to vote on ending the ban on offshore oil exploration off the eastern seaboard, and to permit local states to authorize offshore exploration as they choose. 8)
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Unread postby obixman » Wed 13 Aug 2008, 15:32:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('obixman', '
')While it is true that the whole stratigraphic column wasn't drilled - in fact most of the traps were looked at..


1. No comprehensive seismic surveys have ever been off the east coast. See the discussion of the need for such surveys to evaluate oil potential off the east coast in Mathew Simmon's book "Twilight in the Desert".

2. Modern drilling technology can operate in much deeper water and can go to far greater depths then was possible decades ago when a few shallow holes were drilled on the east coast. The deepwater areas were never "looked at" decades ago.

2. Geologists can't determine if oil is present by "looking at" sursurface traps and structures in any case. They are far under the water and buried deeply by more recent sediments. They have to be located and delinated and analyzed using modern 3D seismic imaging AND then tested using drilling. 3D seismic has not been done off most of the eastern seaboard. Even where very limited old-fashioned surveys have been done decades in the past, they are basically worthless as much more modern techniques are available today. See the discussion of the need for such surveys to evaluate oil potential off the east coast in Mathew Simmon's book "Twilight in the Desert". Simmons believes the US should conduct geophysical work to at least identify and inventory the structures off the east coast so we have a foundation of knowledge to work with. As usual, he is right. :)


In this case he is wrong - the structure on the east coast of the US is flat - pancake flat. What few traping structures there are have been drilled. You need both hydrocarbons and a trap to produce oil. Off New England you have neither.

You do not need 3D surveys to do exploration - they are useful/needed for production/development and are vital where complex structures exist.

Neither exist on the East Coast.

No one is promoting the New England coast as a viable exploration area.

You want oil - try off the West Coast of Florida. A fair number of wells - some drilled in the 50's - which would be major finds these days, but were abandoned when drilled. Major problem with that area is the rock types - carbonates - and the reservoirs - secondary porosity plays - neither of which are easily found via seismic.

People think somehow that there has been a vast change in exploration technologies but there hasn't - what has happened is the technologies have gotten cheaper and some that were kept (somewhat) secret are now widely known and used. 3D seismic is now widely used - but it was developed around 1980. Geochemical has come --- and gone -- as an exploration technique.

The oil industry is pretty ruthless - if a technique works it is kept and used - if it doesn't it is discarded. There are only so many physical signals which travel through rock.. and only so many ways to look at them. Seismic amplitude vs offset seeems to be popular now, but I was working on it in 1986.

All these new techniques are applicable under certain conditions and in certain areas... but the basics remain.

...

and if you've drilled an area to basement and found NOTHING, no one will drill ithat area again.... ever.
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heat

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 13 Aug 2008, 15:52:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '
')I don't recall the details but New England had some of the highest density pops (statewide) in the world.


I think comparing population density to the total landmass of the state is deceptive. Look at the states with the lowest population density and some of them have HUGE tracts of no-man's land, like Nevada with all that government-controlled desert. A more useful statistic would be population density relative to already-developed residential areas.

Look how much greenery pokes through MA


Vs. Metro Los Angeles (same scale) which looks like a computer chip of criss-crossing roads. The concrete jungle.


Las Vegas


Portland Oregon


You could easily find yourself in a more cramped living condition than MA in a state that is lower on the list.

I can also say that VT being close to the middle of the pack tells you nothing because I drove through there and while it's comparatively a small state, it's almost entirely empty. You have a few medium sized cities like Montpilier and Burlington and a lot of dairy farms and hills and that's it. It's basically The Shire.
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Unread postby rider » Wed 13 Aug 2008, 16:18:40

Excuse me mos6507, but could you please use the HyperLink button for posting links. It would keep the page from getting a mile wide.
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Wed 13 Aug 2008, 16:28:50

Mos,

There is far more rainfall in New England than Vegas or LA.

All of that green area is forested because it is so easy for trees to grow here. Leave a piece of land alone for a decade and maples will take over. Most of the forested land is actually pretty empty. There are lots of parks and conservation areas, punctuated by the occasional highway and McDonalds but it's hardly suburbia.

In LA, if it's not paved or irrigated...it's empty.

Boston has a more sophisticated transportation network than Vegas or LA. As a result, Bostonians spend 1/3 less time stuck in traffic compared to LA drivers.

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Re: WSJ: Ditching Oil, Converting to Gas (home heating)

Unread postby MarkJ » Wed 13 Aug 2008, 17:06:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dirthoser', 'A')nyone using heating oil to heat their house has a screw loose.

Electricity is much cheaper in most places, it is made from COAL.

If you buy a heat pump you can heat your house for a third of the cost of electricty

exampl 1 gallon propane costs $2.77 for 100,000 Btu
electricity for that would cost $1.77
and heat pump for that would cost 60 cents.

no matter what your electric costs are, even if they are 30 cents a kilowatt hour, heat pump is the cheapest.


We don't see many heat pumps in regions with sub zero temperatures.

Hydronic Heating Systems (Boilers, Indirect Water Heaters, Baseboard/Radiators/Panel Radiators/Floor Radiant) are king in my region of the Northeast whether they're natural gas, propane, oil, wood or pellet fired due to comfort, efficiency, quality, longevity and the incredible selection of fuels, boilers, burners, and controls.

Electricity @ 30¢/Kwh, = $87.90 per million BTU

Electricity @ the New York State January 2008 average of 16.9 ¢/Kwh, electricity = $49.53 per million BTU.

Propane @ $2.77 per gallon = 30.33 per million BTU

Heating Oil @ $3.50 (C.O.D.) = $25.24 per million BTU

Wood Pellets @ $225 per ton = $13.65 per million BTU
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Unread postby cube » Wed 13 Aug 2008, 17:28:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '.')...
Boston has a more sophisticated transportation network than Vegas or LA. As a result, Bostonians spend 1/3 less time stuck in traffic compared to LA drivers.
If you mean "sophisticated" as in a viable public transit system well yes.
*looks at Tyler_JC's location*
I've never been there but this is the image that I get of Boston.
Image

Image

Image
That looks like a textbook example of "New Urbanism" the type of living arrangement that James Kunstler has been preaching like it's the best thing invented since the advent of sex.
I've argued many times if society wants a viable public transit system then they'll have to give up on "suburbia" and move into a living arrangement that looks somewhat like the examples above or higher density.
however...
I am not arguing in favor of government "intervention". The best thing to do is just sit back, do-nothing, and let gasoline go up to $10 / gallon and the chaos will "organize" itself.
I think society is ignorant of how amazingly "adaptive" the free market can be.
The "free-market" DOES adapt.......it just does so "reactively" NOT "pro-actively". :)
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 13 Aug 2008, 18:03:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('obixman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('obixman', '
')While it is true that the whole stratigraphic column wasn't drilled - in fact most of the traps were looked at..


1. No comprehensive seismic surveys have ever been off the east coast. See the discussion of the need for such surveys to evaluate oil potential off the east coast in Mathew Simmon's book "Twilight in the Desert".

2. Modern drilling technology can operate in much deeper water and can go to far greater depths then was possible decades ago when a few shallow holes were drilled on the east coast. The deepwater areas were never "looked at" decades ago.

2. Geologists can't determine if oil is present by "looking at" sursurface traps and structures in any case. They are far under the water and buried deeply by more recent sediments. They have to be located and delinated and analyzed using modern 3D seismic imaging AND then tested using drilling. 3D seismic has not been done off most of the eastern seaboard. Even where very limited old-fashioned surveys have been done decades in the past, they are basically worthless as much more modern techniques are available today. See the discussion of the need for such surveys to evaluate oil potential off the east coast in Mathew Simmon's book "Twilight in the Desert". Simmons believes the US should conduct geophysical work to at least identify and inventory the structures off the east coast so we have a foundation of knowledge to work with. As usual, he is right. :)


In this case he is wrong - the structure on the east coast of the US is flat - pancake flat. What few traping structures there are have been drilled. You need both hydrocarbons and a trap to produce oil. Off New England you have neither.


???

Back to curious claims that simply aren't true.

There has never been any drilling in deepwater areas off New England. Never. The area has been closed by Congress for 3 decades, and the technology to do deepwater drilling in extremely deep water didn't even exist 30 years ago. Unless you secretly took a modern deepwater drill ship back in time to 30 years ago your claim is utter nonsense.

Second, the claim that the structures are "flat - pancake flat" also isn't likely to be true. We already know that there are major structure associated with the opening of the Atlantic rift in onshore areas. These structures (mainly grabens and associated extentional fault structures) extend into deep water around other parts of the Atlantic and likely do so off New England. No one has ever done modern 3d seismic surveys off New England----like Mathew Simmons, the famous peak oil guru, I think we should.

Finally, your curious belief that the marine sediments off eastern Canada could produce oil but marine sediments of the same age and same type a few hundred miles farther south off Maine or Massachusetts are incapable of generating oil also seems questionable. I suggest we lobby Nancy Pelosi to allow Congress to vote so we can drill and find out.

Cheers! :)
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 13 Aug 2008, 18:18:58

Here's how the Geological Survey of Canada describes the creation of structures during the rifting of the Atlantic Ocean in the Mesozoic (...Canada lies just north of the US, and the rifting occuring at exactly the same time and in generally the same way in New England and maritime Canada.

"The Atlantic ... continental margin (located beneath the continental shelf and slope ) developed along the edge of the ocean basin after the continent ... broke up and the pieces began to drift apart. The initial North Atlantic Ocean was small and shallow; salt and other evaporates which formed when seawater evaporates, precipitated to form thick layers at the bottom of the basin. As the ocean basin widened, sediment that was carried by river systems to the edge of the continent was deposited into the basin. Additional material was added from marine organisms and other sources. Large sedimentary basins developed as sedimentation continued and the compacted layers built up thicker and farther from the shore. Presently, some of the basins along the Atlantic .... margin contain sedimentary rocks up to 15 km thick.

Plant and animal matter were swept into the basin and buried beneath other sediment. This provided the organic material that was necessary to form present day petroleum. The formation of petroleum deposits was influenced by the later development of complex structures and faults within these sedimentary rocks, in response to compressive stresses and the deformation of the evaporite layer."

----------


Someone forget to tell those Canadians that there were no oil source rocks and no structures off the Atlantic coast......ehhh?
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Wed 13 Aug 2008, 18:49:42

Cube,

I forgot to type "public" but public transportation was what I was talking about.

Older cities like New York and Boston tend to invest more in their public transportation networks than new Sun Belt cities like Dallas or Phoenix.
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Unread postby basil_hayden » Wed 13 Aug 2008, 19:48:14

Plant -

As obixman stated and I'll paraphrase, the most likely targets - something like the Connecticut River Valley - have been explored, I believe the latest round was in the late 1980s.

The structure southeast of Hartford, and most of Rhode Island, consist of suspect terranes similar to the Wrangell (sp?) Mountains in Alaska only the Wrangells are younger. With all of the faulting and upturned fold structures - mashed potatoes - there are no traps, and there's no source below. I don't think there's any oil in the Wrangells either for the same reasons, correct me if I'm wrong.

However if you'd like to waste your money, we can certainly find someone to take it for you and do some offshore drilling, especially if you get Congress involved.

Fortunately, getting back to the topic, in Connecticut the discussion has lead, at least, to a loan guarantee to the small oil delivery companies (less than $5 million) according to a news article on PO's front page. This of course sounds like it won't help the actual poor residents purchase the oil, however heating assistance programs have reportedly grown, just not exponentially as I think we'll need in the next few winters.
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heat

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 13 Aug 2008, 21:21:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '
')That looks like a textbook example of "New Urbanism"


It's really just "old urbanism" that never went away. That kind of housing is only in the innermost area: Boston proper, Brookline, Cleveland Circle (Brighton), places like that.

It fades out pretty quickly into pastoral colonials in towns that were built long ago in the old-world star pattern. Open up street view here and go on a virtual trip for yourself.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '
')I've argued many times if society wants a viable public transit system then they'll have to give up on "suburbia" and move into a living arrangement that looks somewhat like the examples above or higher density.


It solves the transportation issue, and as long as you don't feel the cities will not be able to feed themselves in the future, that will work. If you feel that industrialized agriculture will collapse to the point of everyone having to feed themselves off their own lawns, then living in a brownstone apartment won't cut it.
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 13 Aug 2008, 21:29:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', 'P')lant -

As obixman stated and I'll paraphrase, the most likely targets - something like the Connecticut River Valley - have been explored, I believe the latest round was in the late 1980s.

The structure southeast of Hartford, and most of Rhode Island, consist of suspect terranes similar to the Wrangell (sp?) Mountains in Alaska only the Wrangells are younger. With all of the faulting and upturned fold structures - mashed potatoes - there are no traps, and there's no source below. I don't think there's any oil in the Wrangells either for the same reasons, correct me if I'm wrong.


Thanks....no offense, but there isn't much similarity at all between the geology of New England and the geology of Alaska.

The Wrangell Mountains aren't a suspect terrane at all. They are Miocene to Pleistocene volcanoes....and there aren't any of those in New England.

Maybe you are thinking of "Wrangellia".....a suspect terrane whose geochemical characteristics indicate it is a bit of sea floor basalt now found in various places from Vancouver to Alaska? As chance would have it, I've worked with colleagues on "Wrangellia" rocks...both on Vancouver Island and here in Alaska.

You don't find oil in volcanoes or in sea floor basalts. You find oil in sediments, and there are sections of marine sediments as much as 15 km thick (about 9 miles thick) offshore from New England. That means the best place to look for oil in New England isn't in the schists of Rhode Island or the granites of Maine....its in the sediments OFFSHORE. The geology OFFSHORE is completely different then the onshore geology, as I've explained in a couple of posts above. The vast majority of the OFFSHORE, and in particular all of the deep water part of the OFFSHORE found 50-200 miles from the modern coastlines of New England, has never been explored for oil......no modern seismic has been done, and no drilling has been done in this area at all.

Deep-water exploration is very difficult and very expensive, but it can find some interesting targets that no one would've suspected were there only a few years ago. For instance, the new finds off Brazil are all in very deep water. Like Mathew Simmons, I think the US should at least take a look at its own deep-water areas, and the sooner the better.

Cheers! 8)
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 13 Aug 2008, 21:39:49

There has been some drilling by the Joides Resolution (the international scientific drilling ship) on one of its North Atlantic drilling legs quite a few years ago. They've drilled off New England, and in other similar areas all across the Atlantic.

The Joides has some decent seismic data to help locate scientific drilling targets....that seismic shows that there are a LOT of structures that involve the sediments on the shelves in the North Atlantic. The claim that they are "flat like pancakes" is a lot of hooey. There are salt diapirs, and there are onlap structures within large grabens. Both would make great targets for oil exploration.

The Joides typically chooses spots to drill that were on structurally "high" blocks on the sea floor precisely to avoid the very deep and thick piles of sediment, and to avoid accidentally drilling into any hydrocarbons....the Joides is a scientific drilling ship, and doesn't have heavy duty blowout protectors and other equipment to protect the ship from "blowouts" if our drilling encountered hydrocarbons and especially gas......the scientific drilling efforts reject lots of potential places to drill precisely because they were worried about accidentally hitting oil and gas.

If Americans want to reject offshore drilling in New England to preserve this precious natural scenic area, thats fine, but people shouldn't falsely describe its geology or falstly claiming its already been completely explored. T'aint so. The ocean is very very big place, and the US had by no means explored all of the outer shelves for hydrocarbons prior to the three decade long closure Congress instituted.

:)Image
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 13 Aug 2008, 21:57:18

Image

The picture is seismic image of subsurface geology off part of the US eastern seaboard obtained using the "CHIRP" instrument.

Notice the numerous structures and faults.

Notice the sediments are not "flat as a pancake" as wrongly claimed by one poster above, and are not crystalline rocks as wrongly claimed by another poster above, but in fact are sediments that locally are gently folded and slope upwards against topography (i.e. they "onlap") and in places are disrupted by faulting.

Oil sometimes accumulates in these kind of traps...... "onlap structures" weren't really of interest to oil companies in the "old days" but with the advent of modern "seismic stratigraphy" such structures are important targets. These are small structures.....much more exploration is needed to find the biggest ones in deep water.

This is one image along one seismic line from the east coast. It will take hundreds and hundreds of new lines to adequately describe the structures along the eastern seaboard.

Don't believe the Hooey......there are plenty of reasons to do new seismic and look for oil traps, and there is some potential to find interesting targets to investigate for oil on the US east coast. Given the realities of peak oil, the sooner we start on this the better IMHO :)
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heat

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 13 Aug 2008, 23:02:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Given the realities of peak oil, the sooner we start on this the better IMHO :)


It will be of little use to pursue remote locations for oil and suck up every last possible drop if we don't simulataneously use the time that buys us to ramp up alternatives. We'll just be right back where we are today in no time, with that much more CO2 in the atmosphere.
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heat

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 14 Aug 2008, 00:03:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Given the realities of peak oil, the sooner we start on this the better IMHO :)


It will be of little use to pursue remote locations for oil and suck up every last possible drop if we don't simulataneously use the time that buys us to ramp up alternatives. We'll just be right back where we are today in no time, with that much more CO2 in the atmosphere.


1. Offshore New England and other parts of the Atlantic and Pacific offshore coastal zone, even 50-200 miles offshore, are not especially remote locations.

2. I agree completely, moss....Of course we should ramp up EVERY kind of alternative energy there is....and personally, I'd start by putting a very big wind farm somewhere in the ocean just offshore of Hysannis Port so the Kennedys could admire it as they sail by. I'm sure that way even the Kennedys would eventually come to support alternative energy.
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