[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')Pompei?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'a')ll of his skills are "city" skills.

[DrillBites]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I') was living in Los Angeles during those riots, Drill. I did not flee the city, nor did anyone, to my knowledge.

[DrillBites]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')Those who "flee" urban areas after sudden collapse would need to somehow have the skills of a mountain man or a Comanche. What percentage of the urban population would this represent? 1/100 of 1%?

It would be a death sentence for most people, I think.

[XLMike]

I believe that everyone is right.
people will try to move as best they can to a more hospitable location (and probably die trying) until word gets out that there is no where that is more hospitable. Any examples in history that anyone can bring up do not fit into the global scenario that we are discussing. It has never happened in recorded human history (please don't bring up Noah's ark). eventually it will be global and there won't be anywhere to run.

But all of this is mute since it won't go down this way. I would be far less afraid of well traveled zombies than a military convoy rounding up stragglers to take to the FEMA death camps. I know, you're thinking oh no he's put his tin foil hat on. But all of the different little pieces of information out there lead me to believe that there is some type of plan. I'm not saying that it is a conspiracy. If you and your friends were very powerful banker / industrialists and you knew about PO and that TS was going to HF pretty soon wouldn't you try to put something together to save your ass and keep your power. I think that a conspiracy implies that the conspirator actually caused the thing to happen. I think these guys just have enough influence to think about their doomstead in a bigger way than you or I ever could. (i.e. let's round up and eliminate the zombies before they become zombies and get out of hand, and while we're at it let's make sure that we will always be able to control those that survive).

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DrillBites', ' ')Please note I have always said the “affected areas”.

[anarky321]

for 99% of the people there will be nowhere to run to and they'll know it

this is going to be slow and painful

the people that will do the best (by do best i mean survive) are:

psychopaths>criminals>homeless>ex./current military

in that order, although psychopaths are nicely interspersed in all those groups

your average housewife/worker drone is going to be a helpless sacrificial sheep on the altar of chaos

the best quality that will raise your chances of survival (besides psychopathy or sociopathy) is independence, as in you can survive and think on your own, and that takes life experience you cant learn it from books; the homeless and the career criminals have it because their lifestyle demands it, the military have it because they also have experience with survival in horrible conditions, and psychopaths just roll over anyone that stands in their way one way or another

everyone else...chances are pretty poor unless they band together and have some strong defenders among them

although all of this is still far off people no need to worry yet or stockpile arms, you are more likely going to die from a heart attack or car accident in the next 10 years than from starving looters or hunger

so relax, smoke a cig, then call your parents and thank them for bringing you into this ****ed up world

ps.: anyone that wants to watch a pessimistic movie watch 'Der Untergang' aka Downfall uncut directors' version...very psychological film and all about death and how people deal with it

[Ludi]

I'm not so sure psychopaths will do well because people will notice them and likely kill them as a threat to the community. Successful communities are likely to be very closeknit and suspicious of creepy weirdos.

I could be wrong, of course.

Homeless also not likely to do well because of needing excess scraps/handouts to survive. Many homeless are also mentally ill and don't do well in any situation.

Some kinds of criminals might do well (really good con men, for instance), most won't (see above re psychopaths). Criminal behavior is likely to be strongly guarded against, in my opinion.

But again, I could be wrong!

Very enterprising criminal types might do okay, being raiders or highwaymen, but this is an extremely risky and difficult way to make a living.

Military might do ok, but, might be too used to following orders and being fed.

[DrillBites]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DrillBites', ' ')Please note I have always said the “affected areas”.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DrillBites', '
')I don't know about you, but I have never seen a riot in a forest or a corn field.

[MadScientist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('XLMike', 'I') believe that everyone is right.
people will try to move as best they can to a more hospitable location (and probably die trying) until word gets out that there is no where that is more hospitable. Any examples in history that anyone can bring up do not fit into the global scenario that we are discussing. It has never happened in recorded human history (please don't bring up Noah's ark). eventually it will be global and there won't be anywhere to run.

But all of this is mute since it won't go down this way. I would be far less afraid of well traveled zombies than a military convoy rounding up stragglers to take to the FEMA death camps. I know, you're thinking oh no he's put his tin foil hat on. But all of the different little pieces of information out there lead me to believe that there is some type of plan. I'm not saying that it is a conspiracy. If you and your friends were very powerful banker / industrialists and you knew about PO and that TS was going to HF pretty soon wouldn't you try to put something together to save your ass and keep your power. I think that a conspiracy implies that the conspirator actually caused the thing to happen. I think these guys just have enough influence to think about their doomstead in a bigger way than you or I ever could. (i.e. let's round up and eliminate the zombies before they become zombies and get out of hand, and while we're at it let's make sure that we will always be able to control those that survive).

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anarky321', '
')the people that will do the best (by do best i mean survive) are:

psychopaths>criminals>homeless>ex./current military

[anarky321]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I')'m not so sure psychopaths will do well because people will notice them and likely kill them as a threat to the community.

Military might do ok, but, might be too used to following orders and being fed.

[Cloud9]

To my mind, it would require the end of farming to produce the catastrophe imagined in the die off scenarios. There are a hand full of disasters man made and natural that could produce this circumstance. There is conjecture that we as a species have been through such a bottle neck at some time in the past. Genetic studies seem to bear this out. So, massive die off is certainly plausible.

Still, it should be remembered that we had farming on a massive scale before we had oil. It was much more labor intensive, but we cultivated millions of acres.

We all know that with greater difficulty oil can be extracted from shale or synthesized from coal. Assuming that none of the above mentioned scenarios occur, there will be gasoline and diesel for military vehicles and farming equipment for as long as any of us on this board are alive.

Shortages will occur, but these will be the result of distribution problems. Food will be available; it just may not be where it is needed. As a result, there will be food riots. Vagabonds will abound and their will be thievery.

Gangs of a dozen or so may go on cross country pillaging sprees. This happened in the 1930’s. Most of them either died in a hail of bullets or went to prison. The things most of us will have to worry about will be the guy down the street stealing our lawn mower to sell at a pawn shop.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anarky321', ' ')a psychopath would be an asset even to such a small community because he/she is able to do when others break down and cry

[anarky321]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'i')t would require the end of farming to produce the catastrophe imagined in the die off scenarios..

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')"A person with an antisocial personality disorder, manifested in aggressive, perverted, criminal, or amoral behavior without empathy or remorse."

[XLMike]

Cloud9 wrote:
[Still, it should be remembered that we had farming on a massive scale before we had oil. It was much more labor intensive, but we cultivated millions of acres]

But that was when the world had thousands and thousands of small farms tended by millions of farmers. Now we have far fewer, yet enormous, farms that can be tended by a handful of people using hybrid seeds that are mostly sterile, massive amounts of herbicides and pesticides, gigantic equipment, and a massive transportation / distribution network. Farming has become big business that requires a lot of expensive inputs to maintain. The farms of old didn't require a great deal of outside input to run. They where pretty self-sufficient and catered to a more localized market. As oil becomes more expensive today’s farms will pass that expense on to the consumer. We already see food price inflation. (at least I do where I am) As economic stresses increase more and more of the population will have to decide whether to buy food or buy heating oil / gas. Some will freeze some will starve. At some point the economics of today’s farm falls down. (nobody can afford to by your product) The farm fails and the land produces nothing. Which becomes a self feeding cycle of food price inflation and farm failure. Eventually millions or even billions will die because they won't be able to afford or find adequate nutrition. And going back to the farming methods of the past on a global scale will take a generation to accomplish. We will go back to the population size that existed during those times, hence Die-Off.

Madscientist, thanks for the Argentina link, it was insightful. People that stay in the cities are going to be screwed. I’m 100 miles from the nearest modestly sized city (Bangor, Maine or St. John, New Brunswick) and I’m very happy about that.

[Cloud9]

What is going to erase the thousands of acres of grain and the millions of head of cattle? Where is all that produce going to go? Is the government going to sit down on its haunches and allow the big cities to starve? I don’t think so.

If price doesn’t reallocate fuel supplies then the government will. Transport of commodities, security and agriculture will take priority.

I do not doubt that many people will lose their jobs, cars and homes. I have no doubt that we are sliding off into a second great depression. What is different between 1929 and now is the attitude of government. Most people in 1929 did not see the welfare of the citizen as the government’s concern. Personal welfare was seen as a private matter.

Today the nanny state is a cradle to grave service industry. Neither the Republicans nor the Democrats argue that point. Their argument lies in who gets to distribute the spoils. Neither party is going to sit back and watch the system fall apart. Both parties are parasites. If the host dies they die.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('XLMike', '
')At some point the economics of today’s farm falls down. (nobody can afford to by your product) The farm fails and the land produces nothing. Which becomes a self feeding cycle of food price inflation and farm failure. Eventually millions or even billions will die because they won't be able to afford or find adequate nutrition. And going back to the farming methods of the past on a global scale will take a generation to accomplish. We will go back to the population size that existed during those times, hence Die-Off.