As for whether its the economy slowing down or the effects of peak oil, I think we need to remember one thing. There seems to be a very large dichotomy in the US. There are the haves, who can keep spending pretty much as always (so the iPods are still selling) and the have-nots, who are now scraping the very bottom of the barrel to just get by.
If too many of the have nots fall into bankruptcy we'll see a really deep recession as that many folks not paying their bills on top of the stress on the economy from the housing fiasco will be to much.
FWIW, I'm currently on vacation and I've driven up and down a good bit of the east coast. I can tell there is less traffic than usual on the interstates. Not a whole lot, but enough to notice.
On top of that, my family owns a convenience store approximately 4 miles from the nearest town. The number of people using plastic instaead of paying cash is at a record, as is the number of people emptying out the jar and paying with change.
Personally, I fear that if gas does not go below $3.00 before October we are going to see the bottom fall out economically.
TF




