[seahorse]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')overnment Holdings of Wheat are at Zero By Benjamin Gisin
IDAHO FALLS, ID - Quietly, the last of the U.S. government’s wheat reserves, held in the Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust, were sold in late May o­nto the domestic market for cash. The cash was put in a trust for food aid. With no other government wheat holdings, U.S. government wheat stocks are now totally exhausted.

The following recent statements by Rebecca Bratter, director of policy for U.S. Wheat Associates, provides insights:
“While U.S. wheat industry strongly supports the administration’s goal of maintaining current food aid programs to prevent rampant hunger worldwide, there is concern regarding the impact of selling reserve wheat o­n the domestic market and over the lack of commitment from the administration to replenish the Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust. U.S. Wheat Associates has shared these concerns with high officials at USDA and o­n the President’s staff and has asked about the Administration’s intent regarding replenishment of the Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust.
Staff from the office of the President’s Special Agricultural Assistant noted that while there is no commitment at this time, the administration intends to replenish the Trust o­nce the supply and price scenario stabilizes.” (Note: U.S. Wheat Associates works in 90 countries promoting U.S. wheat exports.)

The Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust was established in 1980 by an act of Congress and is authorized to hold up to 4 million metric tons of wheat, corn, sorghum and rice as a reserve for global food crises. The wheat is purchased and managed by the Commodity Credit Corporation and included in the total amount of wheat owned and held by the U.S. government. Holdings by the Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust for corn, sorghum and rice are also zero.

For the decade of the ‘80s, government wheat holdings (including those in the Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust) averaged 358 million bushels. For the decade of the ‘90s, government wheat holdings averaged 133 million bushels. Since 2000, government wheat holdings dropped steadily until recently when the last of the government-owned wheat was sold.

With no formal plan for wheat stocks by the U.S. government, wheat stocks have defaulted to the arena of the private free-market sector. Unfortunately, the private sector has no plans for any kind of minimum wheat stocks that would protect from a price and/or availability standpoint the American public.

Private wheat stocks are divided into two major categories — o­n-farm wheat stocks owned by farmers and off-farm wheat stocks owned by warehouses and grain companies. These two together held 305.6 million bushels of wheat as of June 1 — or roughly 1 bushel per person living in the United States — the lowest level in 60 years.

Of these stocks, o­n-farm wheat stocks are at 25.6 million bushels, the lowest level of o­n-farm wheat stocks since the USDA started keeping tabs back in 1934. So as you are driving in rural America before wheat harvest, the farmer’s bins have never been so empty.

The USDA, projects America to have a bumper wheat crop in 2008 — producing 2.43 billion bushels and consuming and exporting 2.30 billion bushels. This leaves a meager 133 million bushels (5.5 percent of production) as a margin for error. Globally, the USDA projects wheat production to be 24.36 billion bushels, consumption to be 23.74 billion bushels for a relatively smaller margin of 622 million bushels or 2.6 percent of production.

The recent wheat crises in America was sparked by the nation exporting more wheat than it produced. This means the true 2008 wheat margin for Americans is really the global margin of 2.6 percent. Any decline from global projections could precipitate greater wheat exports from America and further draw down already low domestic and global wheat stocks.

Food security is emerging as a global focal point. With the U.S. government and the private sector lacking visions for stocks, food security is poised to grow as a grass-roots issue around the nation.

About Benjamin Gisin: Gisin has visited hundreds of farms in his agricultural banking, farm consulting and publishing careers. Today he writes and lectures extensively o­n the promise of local food systems, agricultural sustainability and food security.
For more information visit Touch the Soil magazine: www.touchthesoil.com

[Arsenal]

I ordered a grain mill and 4 buckets of wheat. 4 months ago! They keep telling me that it will be here in a couple of weeks. Blah. I got the grain mill in about 2 weeks but it just sits there with nothing to do.

Arsenal

[Ferretlover]

From the article: "The recent wheat crises in America was sparked by the nation exporting more wheat than it produced."
How do you export MORE than you produce?
In any case, the lack of wheat, like corn, is going to be a Big problem in the near future. And the general public doesn't have a clue....sigh...

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '
')How do you export MORE than you produce?

[Ferretlover]

*giggle* "When all else fails, manipulate the data."

[Kingcoal]

Hello, world food crisis!

[Maddog78]

Flour price is up over %44 in Canada already this yr.

[Neptune]

Wheat is being grown in larger quantities, problem is higher demand since corn is in short supply.

[Specop_007]

Interesting seeing as the wheat harvest is almost done for the year. They may still be harvesting up north, but if the .gov wanted to now is the time to replenish stocks.

Not that I would realyl be too worried. The article tries to make this out to be worse then it is. The governments supply is gone, doesnt mean wheat is gone. Private traders will be up to their eyeballs in wheat right now. And frankly, I never liked the idea of my tax money feeding starving people in Africa so....Well...My give a damn is real low that the .gov cant send our tax money and grains elsewhere.

[Hawkcreek]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')nteresting seeing as the wheat harvest is almost done for the year. They may still be harvesting up north, but if the .gov wanted to now is the time to replenish stocks.

[Cparkinson]

hello everyone,
I do hope you all are correct and it is all just scare tactics, to keep us consumers feeling depressed! They do talk about a global food shortage soon, but what to believe???? See this yet----- article on food crisis

For me, I am very grateful for the fruit season and my new job to pay for buying it with. I guess all we can do is go day to day, keep looking for the wheat for the grinder and it will come together somehow.

real estate at deep creek lake

[Specop_007]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hawkcreek', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')nteresting seeing as the wheat harvest is almost done for the year. They may still be harvesting up north, but if the .gov wanted to now is the time to replenish stocks.

[mystiek]

aresenal-what type of grain mill did you order? I have been looking at them too and I think next week I'm going to order the Family Grain Mill for about $160.00. I'd like to get the fancier ones but $$$$ is an issue at times. We have some wheat stored, our friends at the CSA farm is hand harvesting some, and we are picking up some more at the co-op feed store.

[Maddog78]

No reason to panic yet.
There should be plenty of wheat this fall.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ri, July 25, 2008 Canadian Wheat Board says futures markets have moved lower during past month By THE CANADIAN PRESS
The Canadian Wheat Board says futures markets have moved lower during the past month due to favourable weather conditions for the winter wheat harvest in the United States and improved row-crop prospects.

World wheat production continues to be a negative factor in international markets as the Northern Hemisphere winter cereal harvest is underway. International wheat prices have dropped in response to the harvest, especially in the Black Sea and Europe.

World wheat production is still forecast to be a record, with the U-S-D-A's most recent estimate at 664 (m) million tonnes - up by more than 53 (m) million from last year.

Prices have been supported by concerns about winter wheat crops in the Southern Hemisphere because they have experienced a poor start to the growing season. Lingering drought conditions in Australia and Argentina have lowered expectations for crop production from those countries.

[kpeavey]

I have the Country Living Grain mill, its a peach.
For inexpensive wheat, check the local livestock feed suppliers. Its the same wheat as is fed to humans, just has a few extra pieces of debris. $12.75 for 50#.
---
Worked the restaurant this night. Talked with the owner about beef. Seems beef prices are coming down. With grain prices having risin so much over the past year, the cost of feeding the livestock has broken the backs of many livestock farmers. Herds are being dumped on the market as being too costly to feed.

This will have some impact over the next 6 months to a year. First, beef prices will come down. Figure 25% on the low end, 50% as a high estimate. This may also expand to other meats-pork, chicken, turkey, but beef eat a lot of wheat per pound. Come Christmas, beef prices will go through the roof due to limited supply. If beef prices begin to climb in the fall, you may want to stock your freezer. It will take a couple of years to expand the cattle population, so high prices will stay high. The scale of this feed price induced culling is not yet known. I would expect this will become big news over the next few months if the sell off continues.

Without so many cattle, more grains will be available. This may help to drive down grain prices, but it will also have the effect of making ethanol and biodiesel cheaper, allowing those industries to make hay while the sun shines. Does the grain freed up from the cattle industry get used in the biofuel industry to such an extent that grain prices stay high? I don't have enough information to make a determination.
---
This is how the interrelated global economy works. Oil impacts biofuel costs. Biofuel impacts grain costs. Grain costs impact beef production costs. It all impacts the cost of putting food on the table and getting to work.

I've spoken before of bottlenecks in the system, these are ideal examples. It takes a year to produce a grain crop. It takes 2 years to grow a cow. Start messing with the flow, things get turned upside down in just a few months. Does the grain price drop enough for farmers to restart their herds? Do they go for bigger herds to take advantage of high beef prices? What would a sharp increase in cattle population do for the grain situation? Does veal become unavailable in order to grow them to beef?

Looking at other products in the same domain. Beef liver-they'll be giving the stuff away. Leather may also drop in price with a sharp increase in supply. Would be a good opportunity to get a warm, durable jacket and boots. Burger companies may make higher earnings with cheaper production costs, may be a good time to buy stock for dividends or short term holdings, but dump them when the price of beef starts to come back up. Lots of money to be made when prices make wide swings in a short period. Be on the lookout for $5 Big Macs in a couple years. Blood meal ad bone meal may have price decreases and increases in a similar fashion. If hay demand takes a tumble, farmland may become available for a fine price. Do grazing lease rates crap out? How many ranch hands will be out of work? This thinking can keep going on and on but it is hurting my brain so I shall stop here.

[Vogelzang]

I got this grain grinder a long time ago. I've used it for grinding coffee and spices, but never grain.






I like this grain alcohol.

[Arsenal]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mystiek', 'a')resenal-what type of grain mill did you order? I have been looking at them too and I think next week I'm going to order the Family Grain Mill for about $160.00. I'd like to get the fancier ones but $$$$ is an issue at times. We have some wheat stored, our friends at the CSA farm is hand harvesting some, and we are picking up some more at the co-op feed store.

[bobaloo]

If the grain grinder is a tool that you think you actually need, then don't cheap out on it. The difference between a cheap one and a good one, in terms of performance and longevity, is huge.

I wanted a Country Living Mill for a long time and finally found one in a pawn shop of all places. It's a tool that will go forever and makes great flour.

The Corona mills, like the one posted above, are made for grinding corn in to meal. They work great for cornmeal but not so good for wheat. OTOH, corn is still pretty affordable, stores well and is very nutritious. We have a lot of whole kernel corn put away in storage, it's good stuff and nothing wrong with cornbread.