by Viper » Wed 23 Jul 2008, 00:32:26
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he only real options they have are get serious about stopping their violence right now and figure out how to help the Palestinian leaders stop their people from being violent and hope they can become "accepted" in 50 to 100 years, or continue using overwhelming force to suppress their neighboring countries with pre-emptive attacks.
So long as there is some country out there (Iraq, Iran, Syria...) promising the Palestinian people that there is some hope of a world where Israel doesn't exist, the Palestinian people will never be capable of being reliable partners for peace. There will always be some faction (PLO, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, ad nauseum) who are not willing to suspend hostilities until Israel ceases to exist. Iran and Syria are not waiting for the day that Israel gives the Palestinians a state to make peace with Israel. They are inciting the Palestinians into continuing the war with Israel for their own purposes. Notice how fast Egyptian support for the PLO melted away once they got the Sinai desert back. You don't see Jordan giving them aid either. If Israel trades the Golan back to Syria for peace, you'll see Hamas lose Syria as a base of operations.
What Iran wants is to be a regional power in the ME. The fact that there are Palestinians available for bringing down Israeli influence in the region is convenient for Iran, and Iran makes very effective use of them. If Israel offered an alliance with Iran that would involve handing Iraq and Saudi Arabia to Iran, you would see Iranian support for the Palestinian cause evaporate in an instant.
More to the point, Saudi Arabia has as much if not more to worry about with a nuclear Iran than Israel does. Saudi Arabia also spends an inordinate amount of money on US military equipment and has an immense air force.
The thing I'm really surprised about is that no one is even discussing the possibility that it's Saudi Arabia that might wind up bombing Iran's nuclear facilities. Check out the specs on the Saudi military some time. It's comparable (at least numerically) to Israel's. (around 350 advanced strike aircraft.) And Saudi Arabia doesn't have to go too far or through any one else's air space.
Saudi AF and
Arabian Army
All of that said, I am really thinking this is not going to become a shooting war. Iran is being hit by a serious case of Wheat Rust right as they are suffering a drought. They are already hurting from sanctions, and if they start to experience food shortages, the existence of the regime will be in serious jeopardy. So, I expect they'll hold out for the best deal they can get and then will fold. Some modicum of security guaranties will be established between Iran and the US, and the US will act as a go between to establish a pseudo peace with Israel.
By the way, as an aside. I am always amazed at the level of attention people pour on Israel's nuclear arsenal while totally ignoring the fact that Israel has one of the most advanced genetic engineering programs on the planet and is NOT a signatory of any anti-biological weapons treaties while they ARE a signatory to an anti-chemical weapons treaty. As with their nuclear program, they make no statements positive or negative regarding their position of bio-weaponry. Bio engineered viruses make nuclear weapons look like children’s toys. You think the worst thing Israel could do to Iran is a nuclear missile strike? How about one disgruntled Iranian student with a vial?