I consider myself to be sort of a middle-grounder. I think there are people on this forum that would classify me as a cornicopian (sp?) (I'm just going by the comments such as me and "my kind" will all be dead soon, etc.) but in the world at large people consider me to be a bit of a doomer. My family and friends think that I've lost my mind and I can see myself becoming a bit of a social outcast in the near future. They don't want to hear what I have to say so when I talk about PO they change the subject or roll their eyes.
But I think that this forum is not representative of the general public, which is unfortunate really because so many people are unaware of peak oil and its related issues. I think there needs to be more information available to the public, because you can easily avoid PO if you don't want to hear about it. It's much harder to avoid the irrelevant doings of celebrities like Paris Hilton, Lindsay Lohan, etc., which are all over TV and Internet, and that's a really sad statement about our society I think.
I do think that our standard of living here in the Western world is going to change, and it's going to be a difficult adjustment for most people, but I still think there's a chance that we can avoid the level of catastrophe predicted by the Cannibalism Enthusiasts around here.
I already posted something to this effect yesterday, but I will eat many things, such as insects, before I eat people. I am a sort of vegetarian (I try, but it's very hard to avoid meat in Korea, so I just choose vegetarian dishes whenever possible). I have yet to meet a Korean vegetarian, it's just not a trend here. My reasons for avoiding meat are environmental; I read somewhere that if we stop grazing our McCows on arable land, we could feed many more people by growing vegetable crops, and the land wouldn't be turned into desert by the grazing. I think that an increase in vegetarianism, or at least if people committed to, say, cutting their meat intake in half, it would help the food crisis. Of course, nobody will ever agree to that ... sigh.
I also read that, according to the Canadian Cancer Society, the average Canadian eats three times as much meat as what is recommended for a healthy diet, so I think that cutting back on the fatty red meats would be good for us Westerners in so many ways (I don't know the data for Americans, but I'm assuming it's similar, and obesity is slightly more prevalent in America than in Canada).
But eating insects is one possible scenario, and preferable to cannibalism ... think about it! They're plentiful, full of protein and non-fatty, and harvesting them would do zero damage to the environment. People in many parts of the world are already eating insects. Here in Korea a popular snack among the schoolchildren is bondegi (not sure if that's spelled correctly), which is some kind of boiled larva dish. I haven't tried it because it smells awful, but the kids love it!
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Re: Any middle grounders here?
by CherBear1983 » Thu 24 Jul 2008, 00:17:07
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Re: Any middle grounders here?
by timmac » Thu 24 Jul 2008, 00:43:15
I will be a Moderate here if we can get real change in the White House this Nov,, but if things stay the same then I will be a Doomer,, the 2 knuckle heads that are in the news everyday, McCain and Oboma are not the correct change..
215,000 people are added to this world every day and that number is growing.. [that in itself is a big problem], where will the oil, food, water, etc all come from just to keep up with population growth,, 7 billion by 2015................
215,000 people are added to this world every day and that number is growing.. [that in itself is a big problem], where will the oil, food, water, etc all come from just to keep up with population growth,, 7 billion by 2015................
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Re: Any middle grounders here?
by seldom_seen » Thu 24 Jul 2008, 01:55:36
The explosive growth of petroleum based industrial civilization was anything but moderate. It was hells bells, balls to the wall, exponential growth on roids.
There was no middle ground on the way up. I don't see any middle ground on the way down.
There was no middle ground on the way up. I don't see any middle ground on the way down.
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Re: Any middle grounders here?
by TheDude » Thu 24 Jul 2008, 02:15:34
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jtmorgan61', 'A')dd it all together and even assuming no efficiency gains in these sectors (which is of course likely) it adds up to just 30.1% of the current oil supply - i.e. we can just about cover it with what we're pumping now.
Assuming they can continue to function under such a stringent rationing scheme. The ongoing theft of fuel is an alarming bit of news.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut it's not all sunshine and roses. Some sectors have to get downsized pretty significantly to make the math work, particularly personal transport and air travel. Demand destruction in these other sectors is serious enough that it's hard to imagine all of it coming from efficiency gains. That means price signals will have to be bad enough for people to give up their daily commute so they can eat. It means some nasty recessions in the pipeline.
One of my big concerns is whether there'll be much of any capital to funnel into any kind of projects, whether CTL, efficiency, EVs, renewables, given how central driving is to growth in the first place:
GDP has taken the lead somewhat recently, owing to online commerce and telecommuting. But in the face of rationing will anyone bother to pay for an end table off eBay, or for the services of a homebody graphic designer? And will the internet continue to function in the first place?
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
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And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
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Re: Any middle grounders here?
by phaster » Thu 24 Jul 2008, 03:26:26
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Interfector', 'B')y that I mean, anyone who believes that the era of cheap oil is over, and that life will probably get steadily tougher for the majority of people, but doesn't think that we'll be resorting to cannibalism to survive within a decade, but that could be a potential scenario in the future if the right action isn't taken now.
Yup "middle grounder" is an apt description of my outlook. For quite a while now I've seen so much potential in the USA to become so much more efficent with our environment and our economy.
I've been looking at and been interested with the global warming problem since about 1989 or there abouts when I read hanson report at university, and about that time also started reading the literature on old king hubbert. I've also been reading the worldwatch reports since the early 1990's
http://www.worldwatch.org/
and was somewhat pessmistic over the long term viability of ever increasing global human civilization, becasue many trends pointed toward massive resource mismanagement and technology not up to the challange of addressing global demend, but over the past few years with a self taught understanding of economics, and the now with the public conversion of T. Boon Pickens toward stuff like wind energy, I think the public is now ready for a new social outlook based less on consumption and self. Therefore I think cannibalism to survive is much less likely because ironicly enough of the realitive suddeness of the constraction of the US economy due to the subprime loans, and increase in gas prices...
This is not to say there will be local conflicts, but what I think is going to happen is a pulling together of society like what happened in the USA during the 1930's depresion, and what happened in cuba during their "special" period.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Period
When I was in cuba, a few years ago I had a chance to talk to various people about some of the problems there, and was kinda surprised to find out that during the special period, people there did try and work together. Afterward I did some reading about moral during the battle of london blitz, and the moral of germans when the 8th air force was fire bombing many german cities, in both cases moral of the people under attack somewhat increased, because they were able to focus on an enemy. Same thing was seen here in the USA after 9/11 people do rally together when they can focus on an enemy.
Hate and fear can be uses as constructive motivating force, much more so than sound reasoning. For example I've known about the problem of global warming and peak oil now for about 20 years, but I discovered these topics, cause I'm a bookworm geek by nature. When I tried to tell people about the potental problems of global warming and peak oil, 99.9% of the people in the past were too self absorbed and distracted by toys produced in a consumer society. Now that problems have comeup in the economy and the environment, people are now more interested in finding solutions.
I have no doubt there is going to be anger and denial about problems with global warming and peak oil, but now that the manifistations of mismanagement of the economy and the environment are too big to ignore, the general public will eventually pull ogether and solve these big issues...
truth is,...
www.ThereIsNoPlanet-B.org
www.ThereIsNoPlanet-B.org
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Re: Any middle grounders here?
by jtmorgan61 » Thu 24 Jul 2008, 04:23:14
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('benzoil', 'M')aybe some smart guy will invent a way to make solar/wind cheap. I doubt it. In fact, I REALLY doubt it, but until I know for sure I'll keep a hand in as many futures as possible.
Wind at 8c/kWh is getting close to coal (5c/kWh) and will get over the top with any credible emissions scheme. GE is planning for wind to be more than 50% of new U.S. installations by 2012. Wind is by some estimates on track to make up 15-20% of the U.S. and even Chinese markets by 2020. Grid maximum might be 30% with a few simple improvements to make a smarter grid. Still need a better storage system though. Utilities are taking a small price hit now for price security later.
Solar thermal is probably around 12-15c/kWh now. If prices can be brought down to 8c/kWh by scaling one or another of the designs then it could explode. No energy storage issues either. We could run our civilization on 12c/kWh power if we had to, and with gas peaking in the next decade and coal plants blocked in many places and nuclear being no cheaper, we may have to.
Biomass, it's not clear to me whether we can get a good source (algae, switchgrass?) or have to settle for the 20-30% of current use we could do with waste products. Nor is it clear what the best output is (syngas, fischer-tropsch for oil, ethanol?) Still, the difference between 5 mbd and 10 mbd in 2030 here in the U.S. would be pretty substantial, and it seems like this is where all the VC capital is going right now. Some of the designs look pretty competitive at $100 oil, heck even thermal depolymerization is competitive at $100 oil.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CherBear1983', 'M')y reasons for avoiding meat are environmental; I read somewhere that if we stop grazing our McCows on arable land, we could feed many more people by growing vegetable crops, and the land wouldn't be turned into desert by the grazing. I think that an increase in vegetarianism, or at least if people committed to, say, cutting their meat intake in half, it would help the food crisis. Of course, nobody will ever agree to that ... sigh.
It seems likely that the meat industry is going to be significantly downsized in the first world. It takes 7 pounds of corn to produce 1 pound of beef. 18% of U.S. agricultural land goes to feed grain production. In developing countries, the appetite for meat is still growing.
Last edited by jtmorgan61 on Thu 24 Jul 2008, 04:32:00, edited 1 time in total.
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