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THE G. W. Bush and Energy Thread pt 2 (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil

Postby MonteQuest » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 20:45:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ')I never contended that we weren't depleting oil inventories, only that US crude imports were not increasing.


To what end did you post, then? Just to stir up trouble?

If not, then that's a lousy backpedal.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')owever, as your data shows, they've fallen from from a peak of 13,714 in 2005 to 13,707 in 2006, and have seen another drop to 13,439 in 2007.


And up to 13, 943 in 2008.

Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Imports
13,103 13,334 13,547 13,747 12,538 13,943


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')The current EIA data shows them falling again so far this year compared to the same time period last year.


But rising 200,000 barrels a week right now.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat's nearly three years of imports falling, and while it may not indicate a trend, it does indicate that regardless of what you want to think, US crude imports are falling.


The trend it is indicating (from your own graph) is that Peter is being robbed to pay Paul.

A drawdown of crude inventories is being used to reduce imports.

The crude stocks are a cheaper supply than imports.

That strategy is short-lived and you know it.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Wed 16 Jul 2008, 21:06:27, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil

Postby MonteQuest » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 20:49:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('idiom', 'I')ts possible that as discretionary consumption has been destroyed that imports have slowed for a bit.

However what we care about is that core consumption that can't easily be destroyed will continue to grow. It just may be a while before it picks up the slack of discretionary consumption.


Of course it is, that's a given. So is the fact that stocks are being drawn down.

Imports are now rising as the data shows.
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Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil

Postby idiom » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 20:55:07

Righto. I woke up on the noob side of the bed today.
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Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil

Postby yesplease » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 21:35:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ')]No they aren't. Compared to the first half of 2007, oil imports over the first half of 2008 are decreasing not increasing, just like refined product imports.


This is where my claim about you using troll tactics to just stir crap up bears fruit.

Anyone who goes to this link will find crude oil imports rising 200,000/week right now from 13.1 to 13.9

Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Imports
13,103 13,334 13,547 13,747 12,538 13,943

EIA data
We can't only look at the data on imports from 06/06/08 to 07/11/08. If we want to get a comprehensive view of oil imports for 2008 lets look at all the data from 2008 compared the imports during the same time period in 2007. Add everything we've imported during 2008, then take the 2007 data at the nearest date and add that. Compare them taking into account the difference in dates

For example, for 2008, add up the oil imports per row...
12,904+13,538+13,754+13,389=53,585
14,730+13,100+13,672+13,502+12,579=67,583
13,864+12,582+12,134+13,473=52,053
12,148+12,029+13,661+13,989=51,827
14,024+13,393+12,744+11,875+13,061=65,097
13,103+13,334+13,547+13,747=53,731
12,538+13,943(07/11)=26481
Then add up the rows.
53,585+67,583+52,053+51,827+65,097+53,731+26,481=370,357(thousand bbls)

And for the closest time period in 2007, add up the oil imports per row...
13,041+14,324+13,232+13,573=54,170
12,780+12,838+13,082+12,951=51,651
11,610+13,481+13,787+13,440+13,701=66,019
13,225+13,451+13,713+13,782=54,171
14,581+14,591+14,474+14,028=57,674
14,220+13,805+14,625+13,901+14,539=71,090
14,019+13,881(07/13)=27900
And add up the rows.
54,170+51,651+66,019+54,171+57,674+71,090+27,900=382,675
After accounting for the extra two days (192 compared to 194), we see the difference in yoy US imports. 378,730 in 2007 compared to 370,357 during the same time in 2008. Down a couple percent.

And, if what you said was correct about oil imports during the 2000's...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'H')ere's the real scoop:

Crude oil imports:

2000's 11,459 11,871 11,530 12,264 13,145 13,714 13,707 13,439
Then from 2005 to 2006 we saw a drop, from 2006 to 2007 we saw another drop, and if current trends seen up to July 2008 compared to the same time period in 2007 continue we will see another drop in imports at an average of ~13,227 so far this year compared to last year. So, according to information you provided and all the EIA's information on US oil imports during 2008 compared to the same time period last year, US oil imports have been dropping for almost the last three years. If you think that's growth, then there isn't much I can say. Believe what you want to believe be it black is white, good is bad, or up is down. It appears we will have to agree to disagree on what growth in US oil imports is. :)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')ssume? How can imports cause imports to decrease, you twit?
Troll, go to the Hall of Flames for this. :) And of course, believe what you want to believe, don't let your own data as well as the EIA's data influence your opinion. If you think yoy declines in US oil imports for the last 2.5 years is growth then that's your choice. :-D
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Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil

Postby yesplease » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 21:42:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('idiom', 'R')ighto. I woke up on the noob side of the bed today.
Don't get ahead of yourself. Check out all the data for 2008, as well as the, according to MonteQuest, declines from 2005-2006 and 2006-2007. Maybe I made a mistake when adding, but it appears that oil imports are going down again in the US if trends continue. For example, we saw the first drop in US VMT in the last couple decades, so it's certainly possible that people are cutting back on driving due to income, or lack of income specifically. At the very least, the last time prices were this high in the US, we saw similar behavior.

Edit-MonteQuest was initially correct about the drop in US oil imports over the past two years. Here's the info.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EIA', '2')000's 3,319,816 3,404,894 3,336,175 3,527,696 3,692,063 3,695,971 3,693,081 3,656,170
So we've seen year on year drops since 2005, so if my sums are correct and current trends continue, we'll see another drop this year. The American consumer is not immune to high oil prices.
Last edited by yesplease on Wed 16 Jul 2008, 21:53:39, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil

Postby MonteQuest » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 21:51:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ') If you think yoy declines in US oil imports for the last 2.5 years is growth then that's your choice. :-D


Never said there hasn't been declines. But as your data shows, it's robbing Peter to pay Paul.

I said imports are rising right now and they are.

Weekly data:

13.1 rising up to 13.9

Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Imports
13,103 13,334 13,547 13,747 12,538 13,943

13, 943 is higher than any year in this string of data since 2000.

Crude oil imports:

2000's 11,459 11,871 11,530 12,264 13,145 13,714 13,707 13,439
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Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil

Postby MonteQuest » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 22:00:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ') So we've seen year on year drops since 2005, so if my sums are correct and current trends continue, we'll see another drop this year.


Currently they are rising 200,000/week.

Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Weekly Imports

June 6, 2008 thru July 11, 2008

13,103 13,334 13,547 13,747 12,538 13,943
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Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil

Postby yesplease » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 22:03:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') said imports are rising right now and they are.
You referred to the rate of growth of imports initially.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'N')ot enough to offset decline of existing fields and reduce import growth. Maybe slow the rate of growth of imports.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')he trend is for imports to rise, which they are now doing.
Now, if you feel that a couple months of data is a better representation of import growth than a few years, even though as you said, in the short term...$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')he import numbers go up and down in response to many things.
That's your decision. Black is white, good is bad, up is down... :lol:
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Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil

Postby yesplease » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 22:07:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ') So we've seen year on year drops since 2005, so if my sums are correct and current trends continue, we'll see another drop this year.


Currently they are rising 200,000/week.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'O')ne year does not a "trend" make. The trend is for imports to rise, which they are now doing.
Or, to put it another way, two months does not a "trend" make.

But, like I said before, if you think that it's better to base trends off a couple month increase while ignoring the nearly three year overall decrease, which includes the couple month increase, that's your call. :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil

Postby MonteQuest » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 22:12:27

US oil imports are going to continue to rise. Period.

No supply side additions is going to change this. Period.

New US domestic production has not been able to offset decline even after doubling the number of wells drilled since 2000.

No amount of drilling is going to reduce imports; it will only slow the rate of growth at best. Period.

Next?
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Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil

Postby EndSuburbia » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 22:21:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '[')
Weekly data:

13.1 rising up to 13.9

Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Imports
13,103 13,334 13,547 13,747 12,538 13,943

13, 943 is higher than any year in this string of data since 2000.

Crude oil imports:

2000's 11,459 11,871 11,530 12,264 13,145 13,714 13,707 13,439


Am I missing something here? Are you saying that 13,943 is higher than the averages for those years? I don't think that would be an objective comparison. But if you are saying that 13,943 is higher than any data since 2000, that's just obviously not true as it has gone over 14,000 many times. Someone please clarify this for me! :?
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Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil

Postby MonteQuest » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 22:31:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EndSuburbia', ' ')Are you saying that 13,943 is higher than the averages for those years?


No, just higher than that string of data. We have seen imports over 15 mbpd.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut if you are saying that 13,943 is higher than any data since 2000, that's just obviously not true as it has gone over 14,000 many times.


My bad. I can see how it could be read that way. But, no, I am not.

Obviously 13.9 is higher than those averages, whcih is what I said.

The point was that imports are rising from 13.1 to 13.9 right now.

With the roller coaster swings of imports, one can pick data to support almost anything, especially if you leave out drawdown of stocks and ethanol.

I stand by my last post. Imports are going nowhere but up.
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Re: Bush to speak on energy, economy - 7-15-08

Postby Homesteader » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 22:46:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', 'o')il will be much more vital to the US 10 years from now , assuming it isn't sold to Asia at $300 a barrel.

Having it come on line now would only have kept the gluttonous overconsumption going a little longer. Kind of a short term view IMO.


Why do you imagine the offshore oil will be available in ten years?

Get real----You need a much longer term view.

The energy crisis will have to get quite a bit worse before people will figure out the Congress is blocking new energy development and demand a change. The dems control Congress, and they'll probably increase their majority in the next election, and the dems have consistently opposed opening any new offshore areas for the last 30 years. I think it will take about 4 more years for the Congress to open the OCS.

THEN the government has to survey the new offshore lands and prepare EIS statements and figure out where to hold lease sales. The government is pretty slow (just ask the solar people who are waiting on EIS work) so I' give that 5 more years or so to get started.

THEN the oil companies have to do their own geophysical surveys, and bid and win. That'll take at least a couple of years.

THEN, after they win they have to schedule a drill ship or build a platform and start exploring. The drill ships are all booked for years in advance......that'll take quite a few more years.

THEN, if there is oil, they'll have to build infrastructure to handle it.
That'll take more years.

Altogether, IMHO we're probably looking at ca. 20-25 years total before any new areas in the OCS will produce oil. But don't worry---oil will be EVEN MORE VALUABLE 20-25 years from now then it would be a mere 10 years from now! :)


Oh brother, but whatever. Pick whatever number of years suits you the answer is still the same. Oil will be more valuable and vital in the future whether it be next year or 2050. Starting drilling the remaining OCS areas 10 years ago so they would be available now would have been really stupid IMO.
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Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil

Postby dunewalker » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 22:55:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')One year does not a "trend" make. The trend is for imports to rise, which they are now doing. There is no domestic production that is going to prevent an increase in oil imports to the US.


edited to clarify MQ's statement, as I mis-interpreted it at first reading, sorry.
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Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil

Postby EndSuburbia » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 23:01:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EndSuburbia', ' ')Are you saying that 13,943 is higher than the averages for those years?


No, just higher than that string of data. We have seen imports over 15 mbpd.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut if you are saying that 13,943 is higher than any data since 2000, that's just obviously not true as it has gone over 14,000 many times.


My bad. I can see how it could be read that way. But, no, I am not.

Obviously 13.9 is higher than those averages, whcih is what I said.

The point was that imports are rising from 13.1 to 13.9 right now.

With the roller coaster swings of imports, one can pick data to support almost anything, especially if you leave out drawdown of stocks and ethanol.

I stand by my last post. Imports are going nowhere but up.


Ok, that makes sense. I think we can all agree that for that past 5 weeks imports have been rising. So I suppose yesplease was saying that the data proving a decrease in imports makes the recent trend of increases irrelevent. As an outside observer I can see the points that both of you are making. It seems that what's important can often be lost in heated discussion.

Well anyway, I'm glad I found this site. It's gonna be helpful to network with people like you when dealing with our current energy crisis. So few people that I know have opened their eyes to peak oil, so I have very little local support. Based on what I've learned here, I've won a few arguments about solving the oil problem.

Just yesterday was explaining how much time it's going to take to get benefits from OCS drilling because of our shortage of oil rigs. I hope congress doesn't block it. I want to start attempting to drill and then people will see what trouble we're in when it takes 10+ years to get a few drops out.
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Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil

Postby MonteQuest » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 23:25:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EndSuburbia', ' ')Ok, that makes sense. I think we can all agree that for that past 5 weeks imports have been rising. So I suppose yesplease was saying that the data proving a decrease in imports makes the recent trend of increases irrelevent.


We all know that imports of oil are going to go up.

They have to.

The US is in terminal decline.

No amount of drilling has, or is, going to change that fact.

No amount of biofuels is going to change that fact.

No amount of SPR or oil stocks is going to change that fact but for a short time.

Sure, an implosion of the economy could do it for a short-time, but I was talking about domestic production, specifically, OCS not reducing imports when Yesplease started his BS about imports declining.

And when we see that crude stocks have been drawn down in concert with the decline of imports, we realize that while imports have declined in some periods, it's because the shortfall was made up from either crude stocks, ethanol, or a recession.

So, if the trend is downwards as YP maintains, then we are going to have to pull down crude stocks, ramp up ethanol, and further the recession to do it.

If that is our salvation, we are farked.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Wed 16 Jul 2008, 23:27:04, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil

Postby idiom » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 23:26:55

So as I understand it, MQ is saying that we have passed the point of discretionary destruction, therefore Imports must go up as off two months ago? Based on the change in data.

Vs a couple of cornucopians who think we can all just lay down and die peacefully? Based on two year trends?
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Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil

Postby MonteQuest » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 23:32:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('idiom', 'S')o as I understand it, MQ is saying that we have passed the point of discretionary destruction, therefore Imports must go up as off two months ago? Based on the change in data.


No, not saying that or even talking about that. I'm talking about new oil supply not being able to offset decline rates and provide for growth and reduce imports.

We have been drawing down inventories of crude to avoid import increases, hoping for a drop in import prices, I imagine. Or to help ease the trade deficit that is pulling down the dollar and causing oil prices to rise.

We are grasping at straws to keep all this afloat.

Sure, there has been some drop in demand, but that's another debate altogether. This thread is about new OCS supply.
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Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil

Postby idiom » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 23:42:24

Ah, as in OCS won't even make up for the declines in domestic production between now and when it comes online?
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Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil

Postby MonteQuest » Thu 17 Jul 2008, 00:48:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('idiom', 'A')h, as in OCS won't even make up for the declines in domestic production between now and when it comes online?


Nope, not to mention new demand.

We are going to have to import it.

OCS will produce about 1 to 2 mbpd at peak in 2030, it is estimated.

US peaked in 1971 at 9.6 mbpd.

1980 = 8.5 mbpd

1990 = 7.3 mbpd

2000 = 5.8 mbpd

2008 = 5.1 mbpd

2000's 5,822 5,801 5,746 5,681 5,419 5,178 5,102 5,103

That's an average decline of 1.2 mbpd per decade from 1970 to present.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mcrfpus2a.htm

Do the math. In 2030, that's 2.2 decades away at 1.2 mbpd/decade = 2.64 mbpd.

Now, under pressure to produce domestically over increasing imports, I think the decline rate will be higher as we resort to severe EOR techiques which we know increases the decline rate.

Then, we have the growth of oil consumption from 21 mbpd to 22.8 mbpd in 2030. 1.8 mbpd.

Decline = 2.64 mbpd in 2030
New demand =1.8 mbpd in 2030

OCS =1 to 2 mbpd in 2030

ANWR = .9 mbpd in 2025

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')APS can transport a little over 2 mbpd, and carried about 740,000 bpd last year. Therefore, if we brought ANWR online today, it could at maximum deliver about 1.25 mbpd. But in reality, it would take 8-10 years after approval to begin producing the first of that oil. Furthermore, preliminary estimates by the USGS indicated that ANWR would likely only produce around 750,000 barrels per day at peak.-ASPO

Oil shale = 2 to 3 mbpd maybe

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he net energy of this process isn’t yet known, but it’s so energy-intensive that we’re willing to bet this technology is unlikely to ever produce more than a modest flow (though perhaps a very long-lived one) of extremely expensive synthetic oil.
ASPO’s Randy Udall puts it this way: “Suppose you owned $100 million dollars, but the bank would only allow you to withdraw $100,000/year. You would be rich…sort of.”-ASPO


There is no possible way that we could produce another 13 million barrels per day domestically to replace imports, no matter where or how quickly we drilled.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n total, we believe that if all limits on domestic drilling were removed, it could only increase US oil production by a maximum of 2-3 mbpd.-ASPO



New demand and decline = 4.4 mbpd
New production = 3 mbpd max

We are going to have to import more oil. Period.

Note: These numbers are the best we have at present. We don't know exactly what the decline rate will be or what the demand rate will be or what production will be. But everything points to a shortfall of some degree.
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