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THE Wall Street Journal Thread (merged)

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Re: Wall Street Journal: If $4 Gas Is Bad, Just Wait

Unread postby Gerben » Sun 25 May 2008, 15:11:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'W')hich means the government becomes flush with money and has been signaling lower income taxes. Yay! :-D

Similar here in the Netherlands. The government cashes a lot of the money from natural gas that's being pumped up. They now have a 0.9% budget surplus. Time for them to start spending some more. Problem is that unempoyment is realy low, so this could be quite inflationary. Perhaps a little crisis would give room for some old-fashioned Keynsian economics. No crisis has arrived here yet though. Yet.
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Re: Wall Street Journal: If $4 Gas Is Bad, Just Wait

Unread postby Starvid » Sun 25 May 2008, 15:28:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'H')igh gas prices are perfect for me. First, I don't have a car so I don't give a shit how much gas costs. Or actually I do. Higher gas prices means more money to Exxon shareholders like me. :-D

As gas prices increase, so does government tax revenue as the gas tax is linked to the gas price. Dearer gas -> even higher gas tax.

Which means the government becomes flush with money and has been signaling lower income taxes. Yay! :-D


I really hope you aren't serious. I don't drive either. But as you (hopefully) know, higher oil prices makes the price of everything go up, not just gasoline. It affects everyone, not just drivers.
The inflationary effect hurts me a lot, because as a student, food is a major part of my costs. But the increasing dividends from the oil companies and the lower taxes on my part time jobs should keep me from losing purchasing power, and should even give me a nice little edge. :wink:
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Re: Wall Street Journal: If $4 Gas Is Bad, Just Wait

Unread postby bodigami » Sun 25 May 2008, 16:58:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', '(')...) All we can do now is prepare and not worry so much about the ignorance of others. They will eventually wake up to the reality of peak oil.


Or dying without knowing exactly why...
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Re: Wall Street Journal: If $4 Gas Is Bad, Just Wait

Unread postby bodigami » Sun 25 May 2008, 17:14:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', '(')...)
Petrol pain set to last until 2016
(...)


Until 2016 AND beyond... lol, like if something will happen in 2016 that will "save us". hmm, maybe they're refering to technology almost 10 years from now? ...which is somewhat possible.
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Re: Wall Street Journal: If $4 Gas Is Bad, Just Wait

Unread postby ptomeyrules » Wed 28 May 2008, 12:38:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drgoodword', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', '
')I expect an even bigger jump in gasoline prices, because it will have to catch up with oil prices sooner or later.


When I mention this to people in conversation about the oil issue, they look at me like I'm from another planet. They just can't imagine that they are not already being maximally gouged at the pumps. And, of course, the oil companies are to blame for it all.

its not just the oil companies, are goverment has alot to do with it to,are goverment adds 7-9 dollars on each barrel and then taxes,and everytime bush goes to sadia the prices go up,to me the rich are looking out for the rich
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Re: Wall Street Journal: If $4 Gas Is Bad, Just Wait

Unread postby ColossalContrarian » Wed 28 May 2008, 17:32:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ptomeyrules', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('drgoodword', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', '
')I expect an even bigger jump in gasoline prices, because it will have to catch up with oil prices sooner or later.


When I mention this to people in conversation about the oil issue, they look at me like I'm from another planet. They just can't imagine that they are not already being maximally gouged at the pumps. And, of course, the oil companies are to blame for it all.

its not just the oil companies, are goverment has alot to do with it to,are goverment adds 7-9 dollars on each barrel and then taxes,and everytime bush goes to sadia the prices go up,to me the rich are looking out for the rich


The US government can be blamed for ignorance or brilliant foresight applied haphazardly in regards to our current situation. Taxes in general go back to the public and some would prefer that oil were taxed MORE so that the profit could be put towards building mass transit and more sustainable methods of transportation. Unfortunately Joe 6-Pack is limited to viewing the world in four month increments rather than down the road 4-5 years (which is also too small an increment).
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Why Oil is Falling: Wall Street Journal item

Unread postby NoWorries » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 12:12:18

http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapit ... s-falling/

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')July 16, 2008, 11:01 am
Oil Slick: Why Are Crude Prices Falling?
Posted by Keith Johnson

After crude oil’s biggest one-day drop in 18 years, there’s been no bounce—not even a dead-cat bounce. Crude kept falling in early Wednesday trading, even as the dollar rattled around at record lows against the euro.

...

But if it’s not supply or demand, then what’s pushing oil prices down? A lot of traders say technical factors, from electronic trading programs that pull the trigger at certain price points, to a slew of options set to expire tomorrow. At the same time, cash-strapped banks that invested heavily in commodities could be unwinding positions to get their dough. That is—oil’s recent slide doesn’t herald a return to $60 barrels, but is just the market hitching up its pants a la Arnold Palmer before another charge at the peak.

EC readers, with oil prices still falling, is there any answer for why?



Good points. He may be right.
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Re: Why Oil is Falling: Wall Street Journal item

Unread postby SoylentGreen » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 12:22:45

a good summarization of all the factors except Iran. I heard Banks/financials were dumping thier Oil/energy sector investments because they need the $ to cover bad loans. Oil isnt going much lower for much longer ,buying oportunity soon.
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Re: Why Oil is Falling: Wall Street Journal item

Unread postby Heineken » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 12:57:58

Oil has "fallen" like this several times recently.

It's falling because of the perception that the Fed has stanched the financial crisis and that slower growth in the US will mean much less global demand.

Wrong on both counts.

Oil is falling, but any such pullbacks must and will prove temporary and ultimately meaningless.

The Fed has accomplished a temporary psychological boost, but all the debt is still sitting there, unpaid and rising daily.

Oil will always be trending higher, forevermore.
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Re: Why Oil is Falling: Wall Street Journal item

Unread postby Carlhole » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 13:30:52

It's falling because of fears of a global economic slowdown. The range that it has fallen so far is still within the "profit-taking" range though.

If it falls by more than around 15%, then you're looking at something a little more important than normal market fluctuation. And then if it falls by around 20 - 25%, then you're looking at something fundamental - like confirmed signs of a global slowdown.
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Re: Why Oil is Falling: Wall Street Journal item

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 14:19:38

Can you imagine if America starts a big conservation program? It might be happening already? Can you believe in miracles?
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Re: Why Oil is Falling: Wall Street Journal item

Unread postby SoylentGreen » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 14:24:51

yeah S.Worrier, God could stick his head out of the heavens and point his index finger and all the oil reserves in world will be as full as they were in 1890A.D.
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Re: Why Oil is Falling: Wall Street Journal item

Unread postby vetusfirma » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 14:35:49

You have to look at buying something that can only go up with time. Jevrons paradox tells us that any conservation the US does will be sucked up else where. I think this is in part based on reported increase in supplies on hand, and I don't trust the figures. This is an election year, and the government will do strange things in response to the political winds.
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Re: Why Oil is Falling: Wall Street Journal item

Unread postby Concerned » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 15:07:17

There was a time not so long ago when predicting $130 oil put you in the kooky bin.

Today it's "falling" to $134/$136 *rolls eyes*

Oil will fall from it's highs of around $147/$148 on the back of slowing economic conditions. However continued devaluation of the US dollar by printing more notes and PO means oil can only go up in price.
"Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
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Re: Why Oil is Falling: Wall Street Journal item

Unread postby jlw61 » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 15:09:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vetusfirma', 'Y')ou have to look at buying something that can only go up with time. Jevrons paradox tells us that any conservation the US does will be sucked up else where. I think this is in part based on reported increase in supplies on hand, and I don't trust the figures. This is an election year, and the government will do strange things in response to the political winds.


Perhish the though! Our government?

Actually, I'm buying the 3rd Thursday of the month argument (futures coming due), but I guess we'll know by Monday. If this drop suddenly stops and heads back up to new territory, yep, it was a futures thing... which would kind of point to the idea that speculation does not add that much of a premium.

On the other hand, if oil continues down for a lengthy period, I'll be looking for my tin-foil hat because every conspiracy theorist will be hitting the net hard.
When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
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Re: Why Oil is Falling: Wall Street Journal item

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 15:14:56

I thought profit-taking when I saw the drop this morning. I'm not sure that people are conserving all that much.

We shall see. :)
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Re: Why Oil is Falling: Wall Street Journal item

Unread postby FoxV » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 16:09:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedStateGreen', 'I') thought profit-taking when I saw the drop this morning. I'm not sure that people are conserving all that much.

Profit taking doesn't quite fit the bill for me. The drop is pretty instantaneous and there is no follow through for the day.

I'm suspicious that its a bit of an "all of the above" type situation where someone big had to liquidate a profitable position to cover a margin call or capital requirement.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedStateGreen', 'W')e shall see. :)

ultimately this is probably the best thing to say about it. I just wish the talking heads would be so honest instead of shoveling around piles of BS trying to look like they know something we don't.

In the end, the only person that really knows why is the first person that shouted out "Sell at $133". Everyone else is just guessing
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Re: Why Oil is Falling: Wall Street Journal item

Unread postby nobodypanic » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 16:19:35

'head fake', buying opportunity, call it whatever you want.

the bottom line is, buy buy, buy. :P
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Re: Why Oil is Falling: Wall Street Journal item

Unread postby mmasters » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 16:44:31

It's falling because there's too much downward pressure and fear in the market which is threatening the manipulated control of it. Oil is their card to ease the downward pressure on the market when it becomes too much. I've been saying this for months. I would expect oil to go higher and soon as we will most likely have some conflict in the ME within the next month and potentially some real left field events come the olympics. The stage is being set though for a significant drop in oil prices come the fall and a large market rally leading up and into the election.
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Re: Why Oil is Falling: Wall Street Journal item

Unread postby essex » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 18:56:54

Price goes down, consumption goes up, price goes back up again.

Don't hold your breath for a " collapse" in price. If it ever gets to $50 then the whole world is bankrupt.
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