[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', '
')So you you would rather we keep buying the black oil from our enemies

[timmac]

Most of our oil doesn't come from "our enemies" anyway..




So the Sudia's and Chavez are good friends after all ??????????.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', '
')So the Sudia's and Chavez are good friends after all ??????????.

[yeahbut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')Yeah avocado-butt is back and pumping some nonsense again.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', '.')...
LONDON, July 5 (Xinhua) -- A secret World Bank report has shown that biofuels have forced world food prices up by 75 percent,
....

[yeahbut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', '.')...
LONDON, July 5 (Xinhua) -- A secret World Bank report has shown that biofuels have forced world food prices up by 75 percent,
....

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', '.')...
That's the trouble with publishing secret reports in the Guardian. Soon everyone knows about it

[yeahbut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', '.')...
That's the trouble with publishing secret reports in the Guardian. Soon everyone knows about it

[timmac]

Yeahbut >>>>>>>>>>> Maybe he's playing the devil's avocado?



For your info I am not.........


You surly cant just beleave that some report or news says that Bio-Fuels alone has cause the high food prices all by it self,, many of you have read of very high fertilzer prices right,, do you know how much fuel is needed to grow food and transport,, How about those DVD's that most of you have watch that has said with high oil prices that cheap food will be a thing of the past,, [crude awaking,, etc],, but some one in the world bank makes a report and you seem to fall all over your self beleaving as if it was gospel,, many things are causing high food prices not just Bio-Fuel,, but with the way many people beleave this I think the next Prez will kill this program and it will be all for nothing,, and watch and see food price wont go back down then I can come back and say I told you so,,, Find the real truth at what is the real problem don't always beleave some hack story and run with it......... [$140.00 a barrel oil has no effect on food prices,, you have to be nuts...]

[yeahbut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', 'Y')eahbut >>>>>>>>>>> Maybe he's playing the devil's avocado?

For your info I am not.........

[timmac]

Well maybe I got ahead of myself but 75% is just to huge of amount for just bio-fuels when we have seen oil raise 4-5 times in price in just the last 8 years, and all the other farm management problems around the world and the hack that wrote this story did not do his/her home work very well,, seems as if they want to take away the attention of the very high oil price and blame the problems else where,, now I will go to my corner.........

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', '.').... [$140.00 a barrel oil has no effect on food prices,, you have to be nuts...]

[yeahbut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')Yeah avocado-butt is back and pumping some nonsense again.

[MrBill]

Not all bio-fuels are created equal. Brazil seems to be doing well with sugar cane to ethanol. Bio-diesel in Europe is doing well. At what point will bio-fuels become magically more energy efficient if we do not start experimenting with them now? Corn may not be the right feedstock. Converting farmland to bio-fuel production may not be the right policy choice either. But we have to start somewhere. How about cellulosic ethanol grown on marginal farmland and in sustainably harvested forests? Would that not bring needed economic growth to parts of Africa, S. America and Asia that are currently under-developed?

All alternatives start with huge upfront subsidies, so that they are competitive with what it is that they are supposed to replace. That is the lefthand side of the S-curve before mass adoptation. None of them may have the EROEI that petroluem has. So what? What were you planning to burn to power your economy once petroluem runs out? The next best alternative whatever that is.

If peak oil occurs because oil is finite then driving less is not THE solution. You need an alternative. Wind, hydro, nuclear, solar, wave, coal, nat gas, hydrogen and bio-fuels are some alternatives. They will be used when petroleum is no longer an option. The time to do R&D is now, while there is still petroleum, whether those alternatives are perfect or not.

Even in a powerdown scenario (i.e. less infrastructure dependent on oil) you still need alternative sources of energy. As well as more efficient ways to produce food and fertilizer from that fuel. They will need long lead times before they can be scaled up.

Part of the problem is the power losses from transmission of energy from where its produced to where it is needed. It may seem obvious, but the solution to that problem is to move manufacturing to where there is a reliable source of renewable energy, and give up the lost cause of shipping power to where it is currently needed. That means abandoning existing infrastructure that is no longer economically viable. Change is coming whether we manage it or not.

[timmac]

pstarr wrote :
Biofuels require more energy to grow and process then they contain.



my reply :
Surly you dont still beleave that old false report that still gets around that it takes more fuel to make Bio-Fuel's,, [grow a brain]
They have worked out all the kinks and problems with making Ethanol over the years and it takes 1/3 gal of fuel to make 1 gal of Ethanol and thats from corn, its 2-4 times better from other crops/plants,, and they also dont add in the fact that corn is not wasted it is dried after using to make Ethanol and sent to feed lots to feed livstock,, now corn does 2 things for the same price,, still makes feed for animals and fuel...... [do some research of your own after you grow a brain then maybe you will find the truth]

[timmac]

Do you also know how much energy is wasted to get oil from say Iraq shipped to America, trucked to refineres to make fuel then trucked again to your local gas station, it to is not a great balance when you look at the cost,, also include how much our tax $$ and fuel goes to the Navy to keep the sea lanes open to get the oil to America and abroad.....

As time goes by, Bio-Fuels will look better and be cheaper,,, Don't throw away a great program because of a few wrong/bad reports.............

[yeahbut]

These are all good points I'm sure(you really could learn a thing or ten about coherence, rationality and general class from MrBill tho timmy) . However I think it's reasonable to point out that this thread was about the impact of biofuel on food prices. Eroei, infrastructure development, scalability etc have been bashed about many times elsewhere.

The conflict between fuel and food, even in biofuel's infancy, is starting to become very apparent. Maybe marginal land crops, like this link or algae, or something else, will alleviate this situation at some point in the future. But right now, biofuels are having a major impact on food prices, and in the short-medium term that impact will surely only get worse.

[MrBill]

If you think about Nike's swoosh logo you have a J-curve. Ag prices had been trending down in real terms for generations. Food was so cheap that farmers were on corporate welfare. This discouraged large scale investment into farming. Land was taken out of production. Capacity was not improved. Then we reached the bottom of the cycle for food, fuel and fertilizer. There is always a bottom. And we were all a little surprised at how quickly we started up the right hand side of that J-curve.

Its even worse in the developing world because along with those low food prices there were high inefficiencies that discouraged local production and favored subsidized imports. Lack of property rights and security farmers could not invest in better farming methods, buy fertilizer or get the best seeds. Look at the absolute chaos in Zimbabwe. The former bread basket of sub-Sahara Africa. Bio-fuels are not causing their economic problems. Political instability is. However, high food and fuel prices are making a bad situation worse.

I am absolutely convinced that the USA is on the wrong road using corn for ethanol. However, I do think it is hypocritcal to say on one hand "America is addicted to foreign oil" and on the other hand condemn each and every alternative energy strategy as being too little, too late and too inefficient. You have to start somewhere. I hope that somewhere results in many small break throughs. Even in cloudy Germany there are houses in Freiberg that are using 90% less energy than conventional houses. That may not solve our energy problems, but it sure is a step in the right direction. It is a necessary learning process.

So in any case even plain old economic speak if you redirect 25, 50 or 75-percent of your corn production from food and animal feed to energy production then, of course, according the laws of supply and demand the price for corn, and corn substitutes like wheat, oats and barley, will rise. Demand for food and feed is rising, while supply is falling as the surplus is redirected towards fuel production, which is another source of demand. That is pretty obvious. Any ten year old would tell you exactly the same thing. If you do not bring enough bubble gum for everyone there is a problem when demand exceeds supply.

Now the real problem is how to get land in the developing world into production. How to give farmers control over their land. To provide security so they are confident to invest. How to get the fertilizer and seeds to them by bypassing corrupt officials that extract bribes and taxes on such imports. How to take care of the urban poor that do not benefit from higher food prices. There is no shortage of problems to tackle. Rising food prices should be an economic bonanza for the developing world where a large percentage of the people are still involved in agriculture to one extent or another. They need real food security and not just sacks of food aid to get them through another season.

US Commodity Prices 1800-2008

UPDATE: I borrowed this chart from a PDF document. I apologize for the poor quality, but you can see how historically low commodity prices were prior to 2000. Well below their 100-year moving average. And still below were they were some 200-years ago. Click on full-size for best results.