[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hogan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')t's going to increase until we hit the wall. The point being that we aren't going to slow down the runaway train. Too much double digit forward momentum. Too many people getting a taste of the "good life".

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'M')onte in the case of China and India I think it now goes beyond the desire for the good life.

I think they must grow and expand or they will literally start dying. Without growth their populations will start to revolt.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ')Gas in China is already around $3/gallon. Do you think the Chinese will continue to buy as much gas if it goes up to $5/gallon? Or $8/gallon?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ')Utter absurdity.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ')Utter absurdity.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ')Utter absurdity.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ')Gas in China is already around $3/gallon. Do you think the Chinese will continue to buy as much gas if it goes up to $5/gallon? Or $8/gallon?

Sorry, you added this in later
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'P')S Didn't you read my last admonishment about unintelligent comments. They will buy more until they hit the wall of collaspe.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ')Utter absurdity.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hogan', 'A')sian and S. American countries will not sit by and do nothing while their economies crash due to demand destruction. They will continue subsidizing the hell out of oil and gasoline to keep growth going . . .

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', ' ')
They not only can but will buy oil at ever higher prices, until supplies start to drop so fast they can't any longer. That may take a few years or so.

$1 trillion cash of US dollars in reserves is about four times what they are currently spending yearly to buy oil. They only need to use a part of that to subsidize oil demand.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'D')o you honestly believe that the Chinese will meekly revert to the days of Maoist agri-collectivism or even worse without a fight for preferential access to the remaining oil in a bid to neutralise the market?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OF2', 'S')ince much of their economy is dependent upon exports to the US and the West, once the economies of the US and the West crashed, the Chinese economy would eventually follow.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' '). Just as much as a species can overshoot the carrying capacity of its ecosystem, the price of oil can overshoot the capacity of its consumers to pay its asking price. Once both try to do this too much, for too long, the population/price will collapse.

[MonteQuest]

double post

[DefiledEngine]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')If the price of gas in China goes up to $5/gallon, $8/gallon and even $20/gallon, they will have no choice but to seek some alternative to consuming ever-increasing amounts of oil.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' '). Just as much as a species can overshoot the carrying capacity of its ecosystem, the price of oil can overshoot the capacity of its consumers to pay its asking price. Once both try to do this too much, for too long, the population/price will collapse.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ')I'm afraid you aren't looking at the whole picture:

[syrac818]

Hi Everyone -

Ugggh... just one of those days where the news coming out seems especially crappy. The Oil Drum has a new article on the upcmong mega-projects, and the picture isn't pretty. With all that being said, I can't help but play devil's advocate in this thread - again.

Why are we only quoting a small portion of this report? Does this annoy the sh*t out of anybody else? Cornucopians will cherry pick for the nicer parts, while doomers will track down the pessimistic parts.


"Supply growth deriving from a concentration of new project start-ups during 2008-2010, allied to weaker economic growth, sees potential spare capacity rise in excess of 4 mb/d."

How come nobody is discussing this?

And how is global growth supposed to strengthen so much in 2011 and beyond - in turn resulting in increased demand - if we have officially hit peak? It's economic collapse or it isn't. We're not eating cats and traveling in hordes while simultaneously wanting the spend some cash for the summer road trip.

"Global demand for oil products will grow by an average of 1.6% per year to 2013, from 86.9 mb/d in 2008 to 94.1 mb/d. Contrary to supply trends, demand growth will be weakest in the first two years of the period, building as global GDP growth strengthens from 2010 on."

I'm not trying to dispute other posters on here, or take a don't worry approach to all of this. There is real reason to worry. I just feel like there's such a constant disconnect taking place in logic and discussion of our oil future, and everything is effected by bias. And that certainly doesn't just go for peak oilers, it goes for CERA, BP, Bodman and many others.

And for f*ck's sake, why are we even listening to the IEA or EIA at this point? These people have been dangerously wrong. It honestly seems criminal to me that these "experts" have been consistently disproven on an annual basis by a group of randoms sitting in front of a computer screen. They've been wrong on production growth, been wrong on price range, been wrong on demand destruction (how the f*ck are they going to overestimate US demand growth by 863,000 barrels per day??!), wrong on global reserve estimates... just wrong.

So that's my rant. They suck.


Take care everyone.