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Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 18:19:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') When the Soviet Union collapsed, it went through a sharp decline in the standard of living, lower birth rates, and higher death rates. Russia's population is still shrinking.
And your point is?
That that is an example of an across the board standard of living cut. An example of a cut that was not wiped out by population growth 13 years later. An example that with no Plan B in place, a standard of living cut can still take place even when policies are horrible(especially if policies are horrible).
You don't grasp overshoot, do you?
Are you saying this was a die-off because Russia was in overshoot?
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 18:39:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')You don't grasp overshoot, do you?
Are you saying this was a die-off because Russia was in overshoot?


Of course Russia was, and still is, in overshoot. Liebig's Law sets the carrying capacity.

What was the least abundant necessity for Russia?

What part of the phantom carrying capacity could the citizens no longer access?
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby MrBean » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 18:46:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', ' ')Does changing terminology change anything?


(sigh) Google Demographic Transition and read what a developing country is.


Sigh to you. Done both. Your turn, start from Wikipedia.


Look where the high birth rates are. Look at Africa and Asia. These "developing countries" are the ones that DMT is supposed to lower the fertility rate due to rising incomes, economic growth, better health care, education, empowerment of women, as they industrialize.

With peak oil on the horizon, these countries are not going to industrialize.

Connect the dots.


So am I to understand that in your (private) definition, a developing country is a country with a high birth rate? Or unindustrialized country? Or both?

Let's see what wikipedia says about "developing country":

"A developing country is a country which* has an undeveloped or developing industrial base, and an inconsistent varying Human Development Index (HDI) score and per capita income, but is in a phase of economic development. Usually all countries which are neither a developed country nor a failed state are classified as developing countries, despite the above facts, this is not true for all countries as some developing countries are far more developed than some developed countries.

Countries with more advanced economies than other developing nations, but which have not yet fully demonstrated the signs of a developed country, are grouped under the term newly industrialized countries.[1][2][3][4] Other developing countries which have maintained sustained economic growth over the years and exhibit good economic potential are termed as emerging markets. The Big Emerging Market (BEM) economies are Argentina, Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey.[5][6] The application of the term developing country to any country which is not developed is inappropriate because a number of poor countries have experienced prolonged periods of economic decline. Such countries are classified as either least developed countries or failed states.

Development entails a modern infrastructure (both physical and institutional), and a move away from low value added sectors such as agriculture and natural resource extraction. Developed countries, in comparison, usually have economic systems based on continuous, self-sustaining economic growth in the tertiary and quaternary sectors and high standards of living."

Seems that there is no clear cut definition for a country like Cuba, which in some aspect shows the signs of a developed country (high HDI position for example) and in other aspect signs of a poor or below medium country.

To complicate the picture further, India as a whole is a developing country in the sense of high birth rate though it is nowadays called also a "newly industrialized country" and an "emerging market", while still belonging to the group of "low income countries".

What is the difference between Kerala, with low total fertility rate below that of US and therefore nearing the end of the stage three in the process of Bening Demographic Transition, and the rest of India?

What really hinders a "developing" country anywhere repeating the population curve of Cuba and Kerala, if and when mature industrialization based on high fossile energy consumption per capita is not the only way to achieve low total fertility rate and hence a benign demographic transition?

As a tentative answer, I suggest sense of community and communal power of "togetherness", a consept that is not dependent on use of fossile energy, is and could be a decisive factor for a benign demographic transition in post colonial countries and elsewhere.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby Dezakin » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 18:47:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')You don't grasp overshoot, do you?
Are you saying this was a die-off because Russia was in overshoot?


Of course Russia was, and still is, in overshoot. Liebig's Law sets the carrying capacity.

What was the least abundant necessity for Russia?

What part of the phantom carrying capacity could the citizens no longer access?

You're a one trick horse. You see everything through the prism of overshoot. Instead of asking rhetorical questions, illustrate your case.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 18:48:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')You don't grasp overshoot, do you?
Are you saying this was a die-off because Russia was in overshoot?
Of course Russia was, and still is, in overshoot. Liebig's Law sets the carrying capacity.
Ah, so you don't fear brain eating zombies like some of the posters on this forum? The die-off can just as easily be vodka overdoses and no more baby making? Not quiet the doomer scenario some have been painting.....
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby Dezakin » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 18:49:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', ' ')Does changing terminology change anything?


(sigh) Google Demographic Transition and read what a developing country is.


Sigh to you. Done both. Your turn, start from Wikipedia.


Look where the high birth rates are. Look at Africa and Asia. These "developing countries" are the ones that DMT is supposed to lower the fertility rate due to rising incomes, economic growth, better health care, education, empowerment of women, as they industrialize.

With peak oil on the horizon, these countries are not going to industrialize.

They wont? Oil helps, but coal was the food of industry, and nuclear takes up where coal leaves off.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby MrBean » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 18:55:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '
')The admission that Monte calls and considers this a "debate" instead of a discussion or a dialogue to gain better understanding of the issue, reveals that in his case this has all to do with ego.


So what?


Is Peakoil.com a community based on cooperation or just a bunch or rivalling egos? Which would be better attitude considering the need for a "paradigm shift" has been talked about?
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 19:00:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', ' ')So am I to understand that in your (private) definition, a developing country is a country with a high birth rate? Or unindustrialized country? Or both?

Let's see what wikipedia says about "developing country":


Google Demographic Transition and see what they say a developing country is. I don't have a private definition. Look at the four stages. Now look where the population growth rates are the highest. Plug them into the model.

http://www.marathon.uwc.edu/geography/D ... emtran.htm
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 19:02:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', ' ')You're a one trick horse. You see everything through the prism of overshoot. Instead of asking rhetorical questions, illustrate your case.


That's what I am doing. Care not to particpate?
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby MrBean » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 19:10:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')"m not here to win debates or feed an ego. :roll:


You certaily don't give such impression. You give the impression of identifying with your opinions and getting defencive if this or that of your opinions is put in question, corrected, put in larger perspective etc. That is the way of your sociolinguistic conditioning, so no reason to take this observation personally - unless your sociolinguistic conditioning has built in you a responce mechanism to take it personally and you are unable to overcome that conditioning by understanding its underlying causes - that it's just response mechanism created by conditioning, but as a human being, you have potential of being also something else besides responce mechanism created by socio-linguistic conditioning.

A debate is purely individialistic game of who's right and who's not. A discussion and dialogue has the potential of being communal or collective way to gain deeper understand for each of the participants; potential of being a learning process.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 20:19:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'S')ame thing.
Your quote tags are all screwed up. What's the same thing?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'T')hat being said, as is illustrated by current examples, the statement you made is contradicted by data from countries that are lowering birthrates w/o cheap, readily available fossil fuels via other mechanisms. Instead they raise the standard of living via other methods with the same result.

Cuba is not a developing country, thus not a current example.
At no point in the quote I posted did you make any reference to developing countries. :) Speaking of which... have you made an appointment w/ a neurologist yet? ;)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'D')emographic Transition is made possible by cheap, readily available fossil fuels which allows for the rise in the standard of living/economic growth that lowers fertility.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby VMarcHart » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 20:23:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', 'I')s Peakoil.com a community based on cooperation or just a bunch or rivalling egos?
98% the latter, 2% the former. But someone's ego will prove me wrong. Wanna bet?
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 20:39:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')"m not here to win debates or feed an ego. :roll:


You certaily don't give such impression. You give the impression of identifying with your opinions and getting defencive if this or that of your opinions is put in question, corrected, put in larger perspective etc.


No, I tire of debating people who do not have enough grasp of the concepts to be debating them. The debate becomes foolish and tedious.

Do some homework. You are not up to the task.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 20:41:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'S')ame thing.
Your quote tags are all screwed up. What's the same thing?


You and a troll.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby TonyPrep » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 20:46:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'n')ot a proof so to speak, as noted by the If suchansuch, then suchandsuch bit. Not a whole lot to to prove there.
So, an opinion, not a logical statement. The "if ... then" implied that one follows from the other, which it did not.
Not an opinion, an axiom. You are familiar w/ 'em aren't you? :lol:
Yeah. Yours is not an axiom. Sorry. It's an illogical opinion.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 20:56:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ')At no point in the quote I posted did you make any reference to developing countries.


Well, they are where the action is.

The developing nations as a group now have 80% of the world’s population and generate 96% of its growth.

The on-going increase of world population can therefore be understood to represent unfinished demographic transitions in diverse pre-industrial societies.

Societies that will not see the industrialization that drove down fertility rates in the developed, industrialized nations over the last 40 years as they went through Stage 4 of the transition.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby MrBean » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 21:17:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', ' ')So am I to understand that in your (private) definition, a developing country is a country with a high birth rate? Or unindustrialized country? Or both?

Let's see what wikipedia says about "developing country":


Google Demographic Transition and see what they say a developing country is. I don't have a private definition. Look at the four stages. Now look where the population growth rates are the highest. Plug them into the model.

http://www.marathon.uwc.edu/geography/D ... emtran.htm


They? DT is an idealized model, not they.
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby MrBean » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 21:18:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', 'I')s Peakoil.com a community based on cooperation or just a bunch or rivalling egos?
98% the latter, 2% the former. But someone's ego will prove me wrong. Wanna bet?


Bet what? Who's life? :)
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Re: Why Technology Will Solve Peak Oil in the End

Unread postby MrBean » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 21:21:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')"m not here to win debates or feed an ego. :roll:


You certaily don't give such impression. You give the impression of identifying with your opinions and getting defencive if this or that of your opinions is put in question, corrected, put in larger perspective etc.


No, I tire of debating people who do not have enough grasp of the concepts to be debating them. The debate becomes foolish and tedious.

Do some homework. You are not up to the task.


All debates are foolish and tedious. So why do you debate instead of discussing?
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