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Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MrBean » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 12:45:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'P')ower down is a cornucopian fantasy. Life boats are where it's at.

Cliff (Start a rEVOLution, grow a garden)


If permaculture, ecovillages etc. was about life boats and survivalism, then good riddens, foggedabautem.

But they are not. They are about powerdown, of course, and much more. There was a good post about preservationism on top of the previous page, but at least for me, they are not even about that, but seeds of something really beautifull: Garden Planet, paradise on Earth.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 12:51:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', ' ')seeds of something really beautifull: Garden Planet, paradise on Earth.


An admirable goal. I hope your vision of Garden Planet allows plenty of room for the other creatures who live here too, and not just humans. :)
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MrBean » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 12:55:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', ' ')agroforests that also stop desertification and improve the fertility of soil - means enlarging carrying capacity - which according to the first directive should not be done. But how else are we to establish sustainable localized production food and energy, if not by enlarging carrying capacity, which is the unavoidable consequense of sustainable localized production food and energy when compared to current nonsustainable way of destroying the carrying capacity?


I'm pretty sure Monte means not to increase carrying capacity beyond the "natural" carrying capacity, which you couldn't do with a food forest. Restoring desertified land won't increase its carrying capacity beyond what it naturally would be, as desertification is an "unnatural" or rather, degraded condition.


Agreed and I hope you are right about Monte, though I sometimes get the impression he's takes Jevon's Paradox and CC of 2-3 billion too literally and dogmatically. If you are right and my impression is wrong, then there is a problem with communication.
Last edited by MrBean on Tue 24 Jun 2008, 13:35:33, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 13:07:42

I think he feels the evidence for the 2-3 billion carrying capacity is sufficiently strong to make it an acceptable "fact."

My own opinion is that we can't know what the ultimate or natural carrying capacity of a given piece of land is. We tend to evaluate these things as though only humans would be living on that piece of land. This is not a beneficial point of view, in my opinion, because we know a functioning ecosystem needs all or most pieces in place, which means all the creatures and plants which would "naturally" live on the piece of land in the absence of man (or, in the absence of civilized man, I should say). So we can't just look at the land in terms of what it can give us humans, but what we must share with all other creatures. This means our food plants also will be eaten by a certain number of insects, varmints, etc. If we eliminate these critters, we aren't fostering an entire, functioning ecosystem, which is the goal of permaculture. Native plants must also be given a place. So remember, if you're talking permaculture, you're talking about not just a Garden Planet for humans, but for everyone else as well.

If we think about the carrying capacity in terms of allowing room for all ecosystems to function fully, it's easy to see that the human carrying capacity might be much lower than if we believed only humans could live on the planet. The damage and extinctions we see now from 6.7 billion humans might be due to the way we live, but it may also be in large part a result of turning all that lost biomass into human mass. No matter how we live, if we turn too much biomass into human mass, we have severely impacted the functioning of the biosphere, which depends on all or most of its parts. We simply do not know at present how many parts can be removed without the entire system failing. It would probably be more prudent to err on the side of caution and retain as many parts as possible in the biosphere, for our own survival as a species.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MrBean » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 13:12:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', ' ')seeds of something really beautifull: Garden Planet, paradise on Earth.


An admirable goal. I hope your vision of Garden Planet allows plenty of room for the other creatures who live here too, and not just humans. :)


Funny thing about humans, we have a natural talent also for increasing biodiversity instead of just ruining it - and I don't mean DNA-engineering. Just look at the biodiversity of one human companion species, dogs! Together with birds, we are very good at spreading seeds and other forms of life from one habitat to other. I just saw a document about fire ants that as newcomers are a big problem in USA. Having tried allmost everything else and every technofix failing, people finally decided to try to import the natural enemy of fireants, a fly that layes its eggs in fireants. So parts of US have now two new species as consequense of human interaction.

So yes of course, that goes without saying, my vision fo Garden Planet is about sharing the planet, not monopolizing it. The one option we don't have, being part of creation, is not to affect our enviroment. We will allways affect our enviroment and we can only choose how.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 13:18:17

One of the most diverse and productive ecosystems on Earth, the Tallgrass Prairie, evolved at least partly in concert with human activity of burning forest edges to provide more habitat for game. In North America this was in general not a harmful strategy. In Australia, over a much longer period of time, it became a damaging strategy which reduced the carrying capacity of the land. So human activity is not necessarily destructive, and not necessarily beneficial. Our advantage now is our access to more information about how our actions are having an impact on the biosphere. It's information we shouldn't ignore.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MrBean » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 13:32:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')So we can't just look at the land in terms of what it can give us humans, but what we must share with all other creatures. This means our food plants also will be eaten by a certain number of insects, varmints, etc. If we eliminate these critters, we aren't fostering an entire, functioning ecosystem, which is the goal of permaculture. Native plants must also be given a place. So remember, if you're talking permaculture, you're talking about not just a Garden Planet for humans, but for everyone else as well.


Exactly! The essence of natural farming is minimal interference with natural processes. There will allways be critters etc. to eat the plants that we also eat, but in a naturally balanced system there will be other critters to eat those critters to keep their numbers at a level where we too have enough food left to eat. Main principle: if there is a problem, don't try to solve it by taking action. Just stop doing what causes the problem.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')If we think about the carrying capacity in terms of allowing room for all ecosystems to function fully, it's easy to see that the human carrying capacity might be much lower than if we believed only humans could live on the planet. The damage and extinctions we see now from 6.7 billion humans might be due to the way we live, but it may also be in large part a result of turning all that lost biomass into human mass. No matter how we live, if we turn too much biomass into human mass, we have severely impacted the functioning of the biosphere, which depends on all or most of its parts. We simply do not know at present how many parts can be removed without the entire system failing. It would probably be more prudent to err on the side of caution and retain as many parts as possible in the biosphere, for our own survival as a species.


I wonder, what was the biomass of dinosaurs, how much other biomass was turned into dinosaur mass daily? The effect of dinosaur influence of was however not loss of other biomass but trees growing into giant trees with HUGE biomass so tall that even tallest dinosaur with longest neck could not eat... until dinosaurs changed into birds, of course. :)
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 13:36:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', 'M')ain principle: if there is a problem, don't try to solve it by taking action. Just stop doing what causes the problem.


That's what I keep trying to tell people. :)
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MrBean » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 13:58:04

About biomass, ants, antarctic krill etc. beat humans, antarctic krill has biomass five times that of humans:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomass_%28ecology%29

Also this table is interesting: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomass

No real point, just googeling out of curiosity.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby VMarcHart » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 14:32:00

Monte, I find this to be a good thread. This is the kind of stuff a guy of your intellect can do to help. Good work! Keep it up!
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 14:47:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', 'A')bout biomass, ants, antarctic krill etc. beat humans, antarctic krill has biomass five times that of humans:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomass_%28ecology%29

Also this table is interesting: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomass

No real point, just googeling out of curiosity.


So when will we talk about die-off of ants and krill? Clearly their numbers are not sustainable... :twisted:
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby AlterEgo » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 15:16:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')1. Stop trying to enlarge our carrying capacity. Stop trying to meet demand.
2. Learn to live on renewable resources consumed no faster than what is sustainable. Let nature set supply, not market demand.
3. Powerdown all aspects of our lives to ease the load on our ecosystem and global climate change.
4. Restrict per capita consumption and do away with certain wantonly wasteful uses of energy and resources.
5. Reduce the existing population to a sustainable level based upon an adequate lifestyle, not one of over- consumption and greed.
6. The establishment of sustainable, localized production of food and energy which is universally shared.


Number 1) is problematic as it is in conflict with most others. "Sustainable, localized production of food and energy" (don't know what universally shared means here) ie. permaculture, agroforestry, natural farming, multilayered gardening etc. mean exactly that, enlarge natural carrying capacity (when compared to "denaturalized" carrying capacity that civilization produces).

E.g. helping farmers in arid parts of Africa to plant edible forests of baobab etc. - agroforests that also stop desertification and improve the fertility of soil - means enlarging carrying capacity - which according to the first directive should not be done. But how else are we to establish sustainable localized production food and energy, if not by enlarging carrying capacity, which is the unavoidable consequense of sustainable localized production food and energy when compared to current nonsustainable way of destroying the carrying capacity?


Good bump, Monte. This should be the top sticky. I like your list.

Mr. Bean, you've got a point. You need to stop doing what you're doing that is causing the problems, first. So population reduction needs to come first, before sustainable solutions can do anything except contribute more to the problem. My impression is that we are all sitting around here waiting for one of the Four Horsemen to come along and take care of it for us, since our ethics have evolved to fit a high-energy culture, that protects any life that it can at all costs.

Here's a nice list that we could discuss. Population is #1 on the list.

http://www.unicamp.br/fea/ortega/htodum/prosperous.htm
Because it's all about the oil.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby VMarcHart » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 15:44:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlterEgo', 'Y')ou need to stop doing what you're doing that is causing the problems, first. So population reduction needs to come first, before sustainable solutions can do anything except contribute more to the problem.
I thought the use of (cheap and abundant) oil is what caused the population explosion, not the other way around.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby Homesteader » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 15:57:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', 'A')bout biomass, ants, antarctic krill etc. beat humans, antarctic krill has biomass five times that of humans:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomass_%28ecology%29

Also this table is interesting: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomass

No real point, just googeling out of curiosity.


So when will we talk about die-off of ants and krill? Clearly their numbers are not sustainable... :twisted:


Where is the link to support your asinine statement?
"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
Sir Winston Churchill

Beliefs are what people fall back on when the facts make them uncomfortable.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby AlterEgo » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 16:06:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'I') thought the use of (cheap and abundant) oil is what caused the population explosion, not the other way around.


Yes. But now that we have the overshoot in population, the problem is the population, not the oil. The problem of entropy and waste caused by cheap oil will disappear to some extent when the oil storages disappear. But even without oil, the massive overshoot will degrade the environmental systems; we'll burn up the whole planet trying to keep things going. So now, the problem is overshoot, more than anything else.
Because it's all about the oil.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MrBean » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 16:08:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlterEgo', '
')Mr. Bean, you've got a point. You need to stop doing what you're doing that is causing the problems, first. So population reduction needs to come first, before sustainable solutions can do anything except contribute more to the problem. My impression is that we are all sitting around here waiting for one of the Four Horsemen to come along and take care of it for us, since our ethics have evolved to fit a high-energy culture, that protects any life that it can at all costs.


Let's try that logic then, which boils down to pragmatic choise between stopping eating to reduce population by one, or learning permaculture, as was suggested at the end of the list. Which one is it and are you ready to stand up to your interpretation of principle of stopping what you're doing that is causing the problem? How about starting a thread about inviting others to join your not-eating campaign once you start to put it in practice? I'm leaving other ways to reduce population aside as they would not be stopping doing what is causing the problem on your part but doing something to others you are not ready to go through yourself.

Of course, the stop-eating choice would deprive humanity insightfull and important posts to PO.com that we so dearly need to learn about rest of the list, permaculture included. Seriously, who is going to learn about the sustainable solutions second if all those interested in learning sustainability accept your premisses and driven by logic and conscience kill themselves first?
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby AlexdeLarge » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 16:15:04

To achieve "Powerdown" a new form of government will be required. Policy must be mandated and must be enforced.

Who do you think will be our Overlords in this new workers paradise?

Will we all be Happy Hobbits living in an Agrarian wonderland?

If our past predicts our future, I do not think we will be so lucky.

Brave New World, 1984 and Animal Farm are worth reading again if you have the time.

"Alpha children wear grey. They work much harder than we do, because they're so frightfully clever. I'm awfully glad I'm a Beta, because I don't work so hard. And then we are much better than the Gammas and Deltas. Gammas are stupid. They all wear green, and Delta children wear khaki. Oh no, I don't want to play with Delta children. And Epsilons are still worse. They're too stupid to be able to read or write. Besides they wear black, which is such a beastly color. I'm so glad I'm a Beta."
- Aldous Huxley, Brave New World, Ch. 2

Will you be an Alpha or a Beta?

I will probably be a Zeta! ;)
Viddy well, little brother. Viddy well.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby VMarcHart » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 16:19:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlterEgo', 'T')he problem of entropy and waste caused by cheap oil will disappear to some extent when the oil storages disappear.
Oil disappearance will certainly solve part of the overshooting. We need to find 2 solutions simultaneously; overshoot and oil addiction.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MrBean » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 16:30:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlterEgo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'I') thought the use of (cheap and abundant) oil is what caused the population explosion, not the other way around.


Yes. But now that we have the overshoot in population, the problem is the population, not the oil. The problem of entropy and waste caused by cheap oil will disappear to some extent when the oil storages disappear. But even without oil, the massive overshoot will degrade the environmental systems; we'll burn up the whole planet trying to keep things going. So now, the problem is overshoot, more than anything else.


Assuming that the most basic problem is indeed the population number (quantity) and not the attitude of the majority of that population (quality), ie. "willingness to burn up the whole planet trying to keep things going"...

...what I still don't get is how to actually reduce population quickly enough to solve the problem, by which pragmatic means that would not in fact cause more problems than they solved?

And how would any pragmatic solution to the problem of numbers solve the problem of the attitude that caused the problem of numbers in the first place? The cause was not oil, or coal before that, or forests before that, the cause was the attitude of some human societies towards nature, considering planet as resource for short term expansion instead of considering it home.
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Re: Powerdown: The Solution to Peak Oil

Unread postby MrBean » Tue 24 Jun 2008, 16:39:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlexdeLarge', 'T')o achieve "Powerdown" a new form of government will be required. Policy must be mandated and must be enforced.

Who do you think will be our Overlords in this new workers paradise?

Will we all be Happy Hobbits living in an Agrarian wonderland?

If our past predicts our future, I do not think we will be so lucky.

Brave New World, 1984 and Animal Farm are worth reading again if you have the time.

"Alpha children wear grey. They work much harder than we do, because they're so frightfully clever. I'm awfully glad I'm a Beta, because I don't work so hard. And then we are much better than the Gammas and Deltas. Gammas are stupid. They all wear green, and Delta children wear khaki. Oh no, I don't want to play with Delta children. And Epsilons are still worse. They're too stupid to be able to read or write. Besides they wear black, which is such a beastly color. I'm so glad I'm a Beta."
- Aldous Huxley, Brave New World, Ch. 2

Will you be an Alpha or a Beta?

I will probably be a Zeta! ;)


Anything is possible and predicting the most likely future gets boring after a while. What is less boring is imagining many possible futures and choosing the kind of future you like - and then starting to live like a Happy Hobbit in an Agrarian Wonderland. Or like Zeta in Brave New World, if you really are that seriously twisted masochist :)
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