Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts

Postby Snik » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 17:52:59

Monte: "Get out of the way of infectious disease and stop trying to save everyone with extraneous measures. Choose from the right hand list first or acqueisce to nature."

Just so I am clear as to the modality of "getting out of the way of infectious disease." Are you implying that we not treat the sick, and stop all research into cures for disease?
User avatar
Snik
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 84
Joined: Thu 19 Jun 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts

Postby AlexdeLarge » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 18:21:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', ' ') Actually, I'm mostly a constitutional republic kind of person. You know, the kind the founding fathers had in mind, then put it in writing, then succeeding generations frittered away.


Then we are in agreement. :) What we have to careful of is when people are faced with hardships and economic depression, they have an urge to look for help from a strong,centralized government. They scapegoat and blame others for problems that may be beyond anyones control.

I'm a realist. I think peak oil is going have a significant impact on economies and society. We may be in for rough times, maybe even a long depression. But I am also optimistic that we will, with time and innovation, overcome the challenges of energy depletion.

What worries me is that we may give up to many of our rights in the process.
Viddy well, little brother. Viddy well.
User avatar
AlexdeLarge
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1806
Joined: Tue 20 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: I have a whole ward

Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts

Postby Homesteader » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 18:57:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlexdeLarge', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', ' ') Actually, I'm mostly a constitutional republic kind of person. You know, the kind the founding fathers had in mind, then put it in writing, then succeeding generations frittered away.


Then we are in agreement. :) What we have to careful of is when people are faced with hardships and economic depression, they have an urge to look for help from a strong,centralized government. They scapegoat and blame others for problems that may be beyond anyones control.

I'm a realist. I think peak oil is going have a significant impact on economies and society. We may be in for rough times, maybe even a long depression. But I am also optimistic that we will, with time and innovation, overcome the challenges of energy depletion.

What worries me is that we may give up to many of our rights in the process.


From what I've studied the rights started going away almost as soon as the ink was dry on the Constitution starting with the first Central Bank.

It seems where we disagree is that the challenge of energy( and resource depletion) will be overcome through innovation. (I suppose you mean technology there)

I hope I'm wrong and you are right, but I simply don't see it.

edited to add: FWIW what I believe will happen and what I believe are [s]often[/s]almost always at odds with one another.

As life gets harder and harder for more and more people they will cry out to be saved and will give up pretty much anything and everything to the right politician(s) in order to be deluded just a little longer.
"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
Sir Winston Churchill

Beliefs are what people fall back on when the facts make them uncomfortable.
User avatar
Homesteader
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1856
Joined: Thu 12 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Economic Nomad

Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts

Postby MonteQuest » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 19:08:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snik', ' ') Are you implying that we not treat the sick, and stop all research into cures for disease?


You have a problem with letting our natural predators limit our population when we won't?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'T')he total population of the world has remained essentially constant for most of the history of mankind. World population fluctuated between 10 million and 300 million for most of the last 10,000 years, never reaching 1 billion until about 1850. The biggest single factor in preventing sustained population growth has been infectious diseases. They were our human predator, and they helped to keep our population in check.
Prior to the discovery of the germ theory of disease in the mid-1800’s, 50% of the people born into the world died before reaching the age of five, with infectious disease being the number one cause of death. An even more significant problem was infectious plague. Any time population became really dense, it was just a matter of time until an infectious plague exploded in the dense population and quickly returned the population to previous low levels. This was a Darwinian world.

Disease can be looked upon as man’s keystone predator. “Keystone predator” is an ecological term used to describe the basic principle by which a predator may be a balancing force on an ecosystem. For this reason, special care must be taken with identified keystone predators to keep them from being hunted out of an ecosystem. Other than in some vials in a lab at the CDC, many of man’s keystone predators are extinct; others are of little consequence. Yes, we are no longer plagued with the evils of disease, but that was nature’s way of controlling our numbers and insuring a strong gene pool.

In November 1991, Jacques-Yves Cousteau reportedly said, in response to an interviewer's question, "Some snakes, mosquitoes, and other animal species pose threats or dangers for humankind. Can they be eliminated like viruses that cause certain diseases?," Cousteau said: "Getting rid of viruses is an admirable idea, but it raises enormous problems. In the first 1,400 years of the Christian era, population numbers were virtually stationary. Through epidemics, nature compensated for excess births by excess deaths. I talked about this problem with the director of the Egyptian Academy of Sciences. He told me that scientists were appalled to think that by the year 2080 the population of Egypt might reach 250 million. What should we do to eliminate suffering and disease? It's a wonderful idea but perhaps not altogether a beneficial one in the long run. If we try to implement it we may jeopardize the future of our species. It's terrible to have to say this. World population must be stabilized and to do that we must eliminate 350,000 people per day. This is so horrible to contemplate that we shouldn't even say it. But the general situation in which we are involved is lamentable."

We must intervene and become our own predator; a Darwinian application in all of its aspects. To many people, the mere suggestion of population control, much less reduction, is out of the question, especially if it entails addressing both the birth rate and the death rate. But like Hardin points out; we must choose — or acquiesce in the destruction of the commons that mankind calls Earth. Not the Earth itself, as that would be quite presumptuous, but its’ ability to support us.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO
Top

Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts

Postby MonteQuest » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 19:11:14

Mods: you cut and paste this stuff over to the die-off thread.

Hard to stay on topic here when it is all tied to overpopulation.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO

Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts

Postby Snik » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 20:39:16

Back on track here. Whether we're all going to die from a terrible disease, or starve to death or whatever, we'll still want to be able to drive to work over the next few decades without having to mortgage our homes to do it.

Drilling. I'm not going to sit here and debate the finer points of what is out there to be found or not found in the way of oil and gas reserves. For over a century we have been proving people wrong in field after field after field. The reserves we've been able to get out of the ground have exceeded original calculations over and over again. We have found and produced oil and gas from places nobody thought we could, places where people didn't think there was even a possibility it existed. The vast majority of the oil and gas reserves in the world were found by American oil companies....American people.

People in the oil and gas industry in this country are some of the boldest, most innovative, most technologically advanced in the world. They have risked their livelihood, and, yes, their lives to get oil and gas out of the ground. They have a passion about what they do that is second to none, a passion that transends the monetary gain they get from success.

There is no other industry I know of where this country is as dominant as it is in oil and gas exploration.

All I have to say is JUST GET THE HECK OUT OF OUR WAY!. That's all we are asking.
User avatar
Snik
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 84
Joined: Thu 19 Jun 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts

Postby Ludi » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 20:45:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snik', '
')All I have to say is JUST GET THE HECK OUT OF OUR WAY!. That's all we are asking.


But what are YOU, Snik, doing about it? Who are you talking to here, who on this messageboard do you feel is getting in your way of drilling?
Ludi
 
Top

Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts

Postby MonteQuest » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 20:50:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snik', 'D')rilling.....People in the oil and gas industry in this country are some of the boldest, most innovative, most technologically advanced in the world. They have risked their livelihood, and, yes, their lives to get oil and gas out of the ground. They have a passion about what they do that is second to none, a passion that transends the monetary gain they get from success.

There is no other industry I know of where this country is as dominant as it is in oil and gas exploration.

All I have to say is JUST GET THE HECK OUT OF OUR WAY!. That's all we are asking.


Yet...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ince 2000, oil companies working in the U.S. have doubled the number of wells drilled per year.

Although increased drilling has added new oil to the nation's supply, it has not done so fast enough to offset the terminal decline of existing fields.

We are going to have to import more of our oil. Period.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO
Top

Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts

Postby MrBean » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 21:11:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')The least obtrusive and coercive measures that will accomplish the goal should be considered.


What is the goal?


For the death rate to exceed the birthrate and the population to decline to avoid a massive population correction at the hands of nature that could threaten our very existance and decimate the carrying capacity of earth to below pre-industrial levels of less than 1 billion.


Aww, sounds awfully technocratic so not a goal we can share. I would leave the death rate exceeding the birthrate at hands of Mother Nature, believing her to be more mercifull than you - in a tough love kind of way... (learn or die and learn) :)

Considering you said elsewhere that there are no "natural" or "least obtrusive and coersive" means to limit population growth for 25 years, even if one child policy was adopted universally, that leaves only the option of affecting death rate ASAP. So what are the "least obtrusive and coersive" methods of affecting the death rate you propose?

What I really want to ask, why put population number - in blind uncritical obedience to the stupid (in many ways, not least tactically and propaganda wise stupid) 2-3 billion number that you can't justify - on top of the agenda and not for example liberation from the consumerist way of life - other reason besides Jevons paradox, which is just a cultural product and not a biological fact?
User avatar
MrBean
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1202
Joined: Sun 26 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts

Postby MonteQuest » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 21:24:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', ' ')So what are the "least obtrusive and coersive" methods of affecting the death rate you propose?


We won't know until we start trying to reduce the population.

For starters: stop trying to save everyone. I have covered this at length on this site and will not rehash it. Do a search.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat I really want to ask, why put population number - in blind uncritical obedience to the stupid (in many ways, not least tactically and propaganda wise stupid) 2-3 billion number that you can't justify - on top of the agenda and not for example liberation from the consumerist way of life - other reason besides Jevons paradox, which is just a cultural product and not a biological fact?


Well, since most of humanity lives without electricity and running water, they don't suffer from a consumerist way of life. Even making a huge cut in use would be eclipsed by population growth alone in just a few years.

Can't justify the 2 to 3 billion number?

The average of all studies ever done is 2 to 5 billion. They list the metrics used and the parameters considered.

Using energy as the metric 1 to 3 billion.

How far off can they be, especially when we are adding 3 billion more in less than 50 years?
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO
Top

Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts

Postby MrBean » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 21:38:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Get out of the way of infectious disease and stop trying to save everyone with extraneous measures. Choose from the right hand list first or acqueisce to nature.

Not acceptable?

Well, that is our dilemma, isn't it?


Sounds bit like Sophies Choice, if you've seen the movie, but only bit. So, if your pick is infectious disease, then how about the next logical step of choosing what kind of disease and then manufactoring it in a lab, aiding nature just a bit? Wouldn't something like HIV be just what is needed?

With the record so far on sight, why expect humans - even MQ - to make better choise than would and could be to acqueisce to nature's choises?

How many proves do we need that a technofix leads only to two or more problems caused by the technofix and need for more and more of technofixes?




$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dr. Bartlett', '
')Now, in this column are some of the things we should encourage if we want to lower the rate of growth of population and in so doing, help solve the population problem. Well, there’s abstention, contraception, abortion, small families, stop immigration, disease, war, murder, famine, accidents. Now, smoking clearly raises the death rate; well, that helps solve the problem.


Heh, now I can post to the "What did I do today to solve the PO problem"-thread: smoked a lot. :)

And I didn't grow my own organic pipeweed in my garden but bought from an evil multinational pouring chemicals and dunno what into tobacco fields - but that's ok, as long as what is most important for me and everybody is to die ASAP to fix that deathrate-birthrate thingie to your liking. Awfully sorry, been there, done that, only to resurrect back among the living... and if you don't mind me asking, MQ, what keeps you still alive? :)
User avatar
MrBean
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1202
Joined: Sun 26 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts

Postby MonteQuest » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 21:41:01

To try and return to the topic...if we drill our sensitive areas, the energy obtained should be earmarked for developing sustainable renewable systems and nothing else.

Not to meet demand or foster growth, but to provide a sustainable population with the necessities of life. Simple, decentralized, localized energy production.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO

Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts

Postby MrBean » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 22:00:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')For starters: stop trying to save everyone.


I'm not trying to save everyone or anybody, at least in this life. And I consider it rude and impolite to save somebody against it's will.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Well, since most of humanity lives without electricity and running water, they don't suffer from a consumerist way of life. Even making a huge cut in use would be eclipsed by population growth alone in just a few years.


How is sudden population decline because of pox or war different in that aspect? We have a habit of breeding like rabbits after die-offs.

You keep on preaching numbers and technofixes based on numbers when there is no going around that what is needed is no more numbers and trying to control nature with numbers, but a change of attitude - or the one billion or 2-3 billion survivors will find a way to repeat and and rinse, repeat and rinse - enough to kill even God of boredom. Change from "more is better" to "less is better", from quantity to quality. Sorry to say, but any religion still beats what you are preaching.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Can't justify the 2 to 3 billion number?

The average of all studies ever done is 2 to 5 billion. They list the metrics used and the parameters considered.

Using energy as the metric 1 to 3 billion.

How far off can they be, especially when we are adding 3 billion more in less than 50 years?


By very wide marging, considering my of the hip most simplistic calculation in fifteen secs gave the number of 15 billion on Garden Earth. Sounds like your experts used too many metrics and parameters and even worse, somebody started to believe in the numbers - more than in nature.
User avatar
MrBean
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1202
Joined: Sun 26 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts

Postby Ludi » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 22:03:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '
')You keep on preaching numbers and technofixes based on numbers


What technofixes is Monte preaching? 8O 8O

Man, I totally missed those posts!
Ludi
 
Top

Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts

Postby MonteQuest » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 22:27:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', 'Y')ou keep on preaching numbers and technofixes based on numbers when there is no going around that what is needed is no more numbers and trying to control nature with numbers, but a change of attitude - or the one billion or 2-3 billion survivors will find a way to repeat and and rinse, repeat and rinse - enough to kill even God of boredom. Change from "more is better" to "less is better", from quantity to quality.


Which has been my message for almost 4 years on ths site????? Have you not read my numerous threads and posts on a paradigm shift in thinking?:roll:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ounds like your experts used too many metrics and parameters and even worse, somebody started to believe in the numbers - more than in nature.


Much easier to use ad hominems than refute the studies, isn't it?
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO
Top

Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts

Postby Snik » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 23:30:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snik', '
')All I have to say is JUST GET THE HECK OUT OF OUR WAY!. That's all we are asking.


But what are YOU, Snik, doing about it?


I've been a petroleum geologist for almost 30 yrs. Ludi, what are you doing?
User avatar
Snik
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 84
Joined: Thu 19 Jun 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts

Postby MrBean » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 23:39:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', 'Y')ou keep on preaching numbers and technofixes based on numbers when there is no going around that what is needed is no more numbers and trying to control nature with numbers, but a change of attitude - or the one billion or 2-3 billion survivors will find a way to repeat and and rinse, repeat and rinse - enough to kill even God of boredom. Change from "more is better" to "less is better", from quantity to quality.


Which has been my message for almost 4 years on ths site????? Have you not read my numerous threads and posts on a paradigm shift in thinking?:roll:


Obviously not all of them. They are just too numerous... ;)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ounds like your experts used too many metrics and parameters and even worse, somebody started to believe in the numbers - more than in nature.


Much easier to use ad hominems than refute the studies, isn't it?


Didn't know I was using ad hominems, and I have not seen any links to any studies.
User avatar
MrBean
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1202
Joined: Sun 26 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts

Postby MrBean » Fri 20 Jun 2008, 23:43:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '
')You keep on preaching numbers and technofixes based on numbers


What technofixes is Monte preaching? 8O 8O

Man, I totally missed those posts!


Choosing willfully wich of the four horsemen comes first, in the mischievesly calculative (and equally vain) hope of avoiding the three others. You know MQ, the eternal optimist, trying to beat nature in nature's game... ;)
User avatar
MrBean
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1202
Joined: Sun 26 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts

Postby MonteQuest » Sat 21 Jun 2008, 01:51:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', ' ') Didn't know I was using ad hominems, and I have not seen any links to any studies.


Attacking character, motives, etc to discredit the studies rather than refuting the merits is using ad hominems.

I have been posting them for 4 years. You dismiss studies outright that you haven't even seen or read?

Boy, are you brainwashed.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO
Top

Re: Lifting the Ban on Off-shore Drilling:The Facts

Postby MonteQuest » Sat 21 Jun 2008, 01:56:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', 'C')hoosing willfully wich of the four horsemen comes first, in the mischievesly calculative (and equally vain) hope of avoiding the three others. You know MQ, the eternal optimist, trying to beat nature in nature's game... ;)


You seem hell bent to discredit me and don't even know what I am about.

Reducing the existing population is not an attempt to avoid a die-off by other means.

The whole goal is to try and reduce the decimation that a die-off has upon the carrying capacity.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO
Top

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 220 guests