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Has the SHTF?

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby allenwrench » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 10:11:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'N')o, this is not "TSHTF".


Matt Says Meet Up While You Can!



Matt Vs Survival Acres Bloggers!

.


I was on his forum (under a different name) and he banned me after just a few hours there.

Wont go back - poor leadership that encourage wrong thinking that leads to wrong actions.
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby allenwrench » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 10:18:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hope_full', 'O')k, this is more than a little frightening. Am I the only one, or has anyone else here needed a fresh change of undies after reading these posts?

Yikes. I thought we had a few more months before things got "ugly."

I think I need a hug...

HF


Things are not ugly.

Americans are pussies - they don't know what ugly is.

We can still live like 'Americans' and suck down all the crude we want. We just have to cough up a little more money to suck it down...when ugly arrives you will know it.

Better train in toughness methods to prepare you for real ugly and not such wussified concerns.

Stop typing on the keyboard all day and get to work training....which is where I'm off to now.
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 10:23:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '
')Myself, staying on topic, I'm amazed that anyone who was around and watched the 70's unfold thinks that what is happening is any different than what has happened during other oil price shock led recessions.


The 1970s/early 1980s oil shocks caused US unemployment to head toward 11% - double where we stand now.

Because of economic lags, the effects of the current price of oil may take two years or more to work its way through the economy. That means we have two or more years of rising unemployment ahead. Every month in 2008, employment has already fallen.

Back in 1970s, the North Slope came on line and bailed us out. There's no new North Slope to bail us out this time from the high unemployment to come.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby catbox » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 10:36:45

I have a feeling...now...it's just a feeling....but the situation at hand will make the 70's look like peanuts.....little crushed up and stepped on peanut shells really.....like after a baseball game at one of the zillion dollar stadiums.

While the previews are showing, I am going to take a break from all this news and stuff and turn off the puter for a few days.

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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 11:01:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('allenwrench', '
')
Right, independents will go under and the trucking companies will just tack the $$ to raise the rate.


Bingo. Inflation cures everything.
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 11:09:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('allenwrench', '
')
I was on his forum (under a different name) and he banned me after just a few hours there.

Wont go back - poor leadership that encourage wrong thinking that leads to wrong actions.


They do it all the time.

A new guy showed up, had his gold supply ripped off when he was on vacation. Response? Ban him for making people afraid of hording gold.

Posts from moderators commenting on reduced revenue because of the crazies chasing away the revenue stream, like this survival acres guy? Edit the post before too many people notice, claim everything is honkey dorrey, knowing you've already erased the moderators printed concerns.
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 11:18:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '
')Myself, staying on topic, I'm amazed that anyone who was around and watched the 70's unfold thinks that what is happening is any different than what has happened during other oil price shock led recessions.


The 1970s/early 1980s oil shocks caused US unemployment to head toward 11% - double where we stand now.


This round of recession might do the same.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')Because of economic lags, the effects of the current price of oil may take two years or more to work its way through the economy. That means we have two or more years of rising unemployment ahead. Every month in 2008, employment has already fallen.

Back in 1970s, the North Slope came on line and bailed us out. There's no new North Slope to bail us out this time from the high unemployment to come.


The North Slope didn't bail us out, OPEC turning the taps back on did. And later on, reduced consumption so effected the market place that when the battles for market share happened, the price collapsed.

A high price for oil is REQUIRED for things to change, I don't know why people miss that one. This entire price spike isn't an anomaly, its a REQUIREMENT for economics to kick in and do what it does best, which is reallocate the resource in question based on who wants it worst.
Freddy RULZ!

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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby jdumars » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 11:27:25

I believe very strongly that we'll see a retracement on Monday, perhaps $2-3 lower. It won't be much, but don't look for prices to rise above current levels.

The pattern in play seems to be stress building up to Friday where it reaches an unstable high. Then people take the weekend, indulge in their various fantasies, substances and reassuring cornucopian lifestyles and come back Monday ready to sell. It's really interesting to see this massive cognitive dissonance in the market.

Did anyone happen to see this article:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080607/oil_prices_bodman.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')amuel Bodman, attending two days of meetings in northern Japan among energy chiefs from Group of Eight industrialized countries and other top economies, said the surge in world oil prices was largely a simple problem of supply and demand.

Production has stalled since 2005 at 85 million barrels a day, while economic growth -- particularly in China and India -- has pushed demand ever higher, Bodman said before a meeting of ministers from the U.S., Japan, South Korea, India and China.

"We're in a difficult position where we have a lid on production and we have increasing demand in the world," he told a small group of reporters, dismissing the effects of speculation and unclear inventory levels and other factors on oil prices.

"I would devoutly hope we ... see a reduction of the use of oil in the world on the one hand, and an increase in the supply so we can see some mitigation in the pressure on price," Bodman said.
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby eastbay » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 11:31:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '
')Myself, staying on topic, I'm amazed that anyone who was around and watched the 70's unfold thinks that what is happening is any different than what has happened during other oil price shock led recessions.


The 1970s/early 1980s oil shocks caused US unemployment to head toward 11% - double where we stand now.

Because of economic lags, the effects of the current price of oil may take two years or more to work its way through the economy. That means we have two or more years of rising unemployment ahead. Every month in 2008, employment has already fallen.

Back in 1970s, the North Slope came on line and bailed us out. There's no new North Slope to bail us out this time from the high unemployment to come.



You are absolutely correct Dante, as usual. Alaska oil production arrived just in time to bail us out of the economic turmoil of the 70's.

This time there will be no 'new' oil arriving and the economic decline will just keep powering on eroding everything in a manner we can only imagine now.
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby BigTex » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 12:02:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('some_guy282', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'W')hat I don't understand is why the truckers aren't just passing along the higher fuel cost to their customers in the form of a fuel surcharge. A lot of freight contracts have the fuel surcharge based simply upon a formula that uses the average price of diesel above a certain level to calculate it.


That's a good question. Seems that would be the logical thing for them to do. But of course, if we all behaved logically and rationally we wouldn't be in this mess to begin with...


It's not necessarily even a matter of logic. My understanding is that this is normal industry practice.
:)
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby sittinguy » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 15:37:37

Why do you think were stuck with, an old man, a shedevil, and a black man??????? All the smart ones know whats about to happen and they are thinking

HELL NO,, I'm not runnig
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby dinopello » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 16:25:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdumars', ' ')Then people take the weekend, indulge in their various fantasies, substances and reassuring cornucopian lifestyles ...


I experienced this first hand. Went to my parents this weekend who are down near Va Beach and Williamsburg, both big summer weekend destinations- and the roads were PACKED with SUV's towing jetski's and filled with coolers etc. It took me 4.5 hours to get here, rather than under 3 which is without traffic.
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby TreeFarmer » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 21:04:16

jdumars I had just read that quote before coming over to the boards. It is interesting that he quotes 2005 as the level at which we are still producing, right in line with what everyone else here has been aware of for some time now.

Three years of flat production is really takign its toll.

TF
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 09:28:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreeFarmer', '
')Three years of flat production is really takign its toll.

TF


Absolutely. Wind farms springing up everywhere, new refineries after 30 years of no new ones, permits for nukes starting up again, consumers buying less, and more efficient auto's in general, PHEV's and EV's and fuel cell cars hitting the roads with the major manufaturers kicking into build mode rather than "sit on the sideline" mode, CF's starting to be required in strange places, the mitigation screaming into the publics consciousness is just stunning.

And all this from just some high prices? Imagine what we could do with some full blown shortages!
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby FLFireman » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 16:35:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdumars', ' ')Then people take the weekend, indulge in their various fantasies, substances and reassuring cornucopian lifestyles ...


I experienced this first hand. Went to my parents this weekend who are down near Va Beach and Williamsburg, both big summer weekend destinations- and the roads were PACKED with SUV's towing jetski's and filled with coolers etc. It took me 4.5 hours to get here, rather than under 3 which is without traffic.


Ah, Gas on credit cards, got to love it.........
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 18:47:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FLFireman', '
')
Ah, Gas on credit cards, got to love it.........


??

I haven't paid cash for gasoline for a decade or two now. Just got my CC bill for $100 for gasoline last month!!!! THE INHUMANITY!!

But I'm confused as to why you appear to disapprove of using credit cards for gasoline?
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby HEADER_RACK » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 21:14:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreeFarmer', '
')Three years of flat production is really takign its toll.

TF


Absolutely. Wind farms springing up everywhere, new refineries after 30 years of no new ones, permits for nukes starting up again, consumers buying less, and more efficient auto's in general, PHEV's and EV's and fuel cell cars hitting the roads with the major manufaturers kicking into build mode rather than "sit on the sideline" mode, CF's starting to be required in strange places, the mitigation screaming into the publics consciousness is just stunning.

And all this from just some high prices? Imagine what we could do with some full blown shortages!


You claim all this is from high prices? OK show me.
List all the windfarms that were brought from conception to producing electrical power in the last three years.
Please list the new refineries and how much they are refining today.
Please list the number of PHEV's and EV's that were sold in the last three years followed by a comparison list of internal combustion vehicles that were also sold in that same time period, so we might compare the two.

You said it I didn't now back it up
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 23:20:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('HEADER_RACK', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreeFarmer', '
')Three years of flat production is really takign its toll.

TF


Absolutely. Wind farms springing up everywhere, new refineries after 30 years of no new ones, permits for nukes starting up again, consumers buying less, and more efficient auto's in general, PHEV's and EV's and fuel cell cars hitting the roads with the major manufaturers kicking into build mode rather than "sit on the sideline" mode, CF's starting to be required in strange places, the mitigation screaming into the publics consciousness is just stunning.

And all this from just some high prices? Imagine what we could do with some full blown shortages!


You claim all this is from high prices? OK show me.
You said it I didn't now back it up


While being led down a specific strawman path is interesting to the leader, lets just say I wasn't taught how to suck eggs yesterday.

Someone said, Look at the toll of 3 years of flat production! I then listed things which are happening NOW because of or during that period ( 40% new electrical generation is wind powered in 2007 ) and things which have only STARTED now ( want to claim or bet the Volt WON'T happen? ), and other things which were impossible 3 years ago and are being prototyped NOW ( Honda Clarity leased in Southern California anyone? ) and I suppose I could throw in other interesting "tolls", like increased US oil production in 2007, decreased crude imports, year over year, in 2006 and 2007, with 2008 on track for more of the same ( impossible demand destruction and prices aren't even EUROPEAN yet! ), but all I am doing is paying attention to the things which McDoomers want to pretend means nothing. When in fact, it means EVERYTHING.
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sun 08 Jun 2008, 23:46:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('HEADER_RACK', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreeFarmer', '
')Three years of flat production is really takign its toll.

TF


Absolutely. Wind farms springing up everywhere, new refineries after 30 years of no new ones, permits for nukes starting up again, consumers buying less, and more efficient auto's in general, PHEV's and EV's and fuel cell cars hitting the roads with the major manufaturers kicking into build mode rather than "sit on the sideline" mode, CF's starting to be required in strange places, the mitigation screaming into the publics consciousness is just stunning.

And all this from just some high prices? Imagine what we could do with some full blown shortages!


You claim all this is from high prices? OK show me.
You said it I didn't now back it up


While being led down a specific strawman path is interesting to the leader, lets just say I wasn't taught how to suck eggs yesterday.

Someone said, Look at the toll of 3 years of flat production! I then listed things which are happening NOW because of or during that period ( 40% new electrical generation is wind powered in 2007 ) and things which have only STARTED now ( want to claim or bet the Volt WON'T happen? ), and other things which were impossible 3 years ago and are being prototyped NOW ( Honda Clarity leased in Southern California anyone? ) and I suppose I could throw in other interesting "tolls", like increased US oil production in 2007, decreased crude imports, year over year, in 2006 and 2007, with 2008 on track for more of the same ( impossible demand destruction and prices aren't even EUROPEAN yet! ), but all I am doing is paying attention to the things which McDoomers want to pretend means nothing. When in fact, it means EVERYTHING.


Whether we make a marginal new high or not in US oil output, which counts ethanol as oil, no longer matters.

Light sweet crude peaked out in 2005, and the remaining oil not only has lower energy output, but is more difficult to extract, ship, and process.

Meanwhile you're still giving us some incomprehensible crap that you actually think makes sense.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: Has the SHTF?

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Mon 09 Jun 2008, 00:01:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')
Whether we make a marginal new high or not in US oil output, which counts ethanol as oil, no longer matters.


Well...you can certainly claim that. All I did was check EIA information, not having their information budget I certainly don't get involved in redoing their calculations. I just used their totals.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')
Light sweet crude peaked out in 2005, and the remaining oil not only has lower energy output, but is more difficult to extract, ship, and process.


I would most certainly agree with you. I don't know that it has anything to do with anything, but your general statement seems reasonable. Irrelevant perhaps, but reasonable.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')Meanwhile you're still giving us some incomprehensible crap that you actually think makes sense.


Like I said, all I am doing is noticing what sustained high crude prices are doing, particularly the part which was once deemed impossible around here. PHEV's and EV's and the Clarity, and I'm certain the little electric cars I nearly run over at the office powered by the acres of solar panels has only happened within the past 3 years. The PV's just happened in the past 6 months, the electric cars have been with us for awhile.
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