[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', ' ')expect rampant government intervention around the world to smooth the effects - mostly by subsidies and price controls. Even then, many won't be happy as the price of food and energy soars out of sight.

[PenultimateManStanding]

As far as government intervention and subsidies go, that's being phased out now is it not? The situation brewing seems to be beyond government action to remediate.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'A')s far as government intervention and subsidies go, that's being phased out now is it not? The situation brewing seems to be beyond government action to remediate.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', ' ')expect rampant government intervention around the world to smooth the effects - mostly by subsidies and price controls. Even then, many won't be happy as the price of food and energy soars out of sight.

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', 'I') voted no. Call me crazy.

A superspike gives the impression of a temporary peak in prices and then prices will afterwards fall. I am seeing a dramatic upward trend that will not drop back down to previous levels of $40-$50 oil.

[thuja]

Forget all the mental gymnastics of what a bigger spike that never ends looks like. Just think of it this way-

In the last two days alone the price of oil has jumped from 122 to 138, an 11% jump of 16 dollars. If this were the Dow Jones, that would look like a 1400 point jump...in two days. That is phenomenal in and of itself.

Then you look at the price of oil doubling in one year. Spike? Heck yeah. But bigger spikes (and plunges) are on the way...30 dollar spikes, 15 dollar plunges. Volatility will be the name of the game but I would not be surprised by 200$ oil this year at this point...

[PenultimateManStanding]

This is where responsible serious discussion is held. This is where we learn that Monte was approached by CNN. This is where egos grapple over the seriousness of Peak Oil. See you in the Open Forum.

[DantesPeak]

Basically I agree that we will are about to undergo a price spike of some significance, but it's not a spike that will bring us back on a round trip ride to where we started. Where we ened up is going to be a very different place.

The author of the superspike report has a brief update. Actually it is his concept that high prices can only be temporary, and they will return back to earth. I do not agree with that part.

Superspike Report Update - Oil to Peak Around $200 [June 7]

[nekcmo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', 'I') voted no. Call me crazy.

A superspike gives the impression of a temporary peak in prices and then prices will afterwards fall. I am seeing a dramatic upward trend that will not drop back down to previous levels of $40-$50 oil.

I think what we are seeing is markets realizing supply/demand issues are real and have no solution as of now. Speculation plays a healthy role in that.

joeltrout

[dohboi]

Yes, but it looks like that change will have to be forced upon us rather than being chosen by us. Even with hell visibly crashing down upon us and even on this mostly enlightened forum, many insist that any replacement to their current ICE car have the exact same capabilities of their current ICE.

We have all been hopelessly spoiled by the age of cheap oil, and spoiled children do not adjust easily to new realities involving going with out or even just with much, much less.

Any argument for serious powerdown based on the desirability of prudent planning or the morality of not absolutely trashing the resource base and ecology for future generations is completely ignored (or ridiculed...) by the vast majority of cheep-oil-spoiled children.

Even doom, to some extent, can be a typical spoiled-child kind of reaction: "If I can't have everything I've always had exactly as I've always had it, everything might as well go straight to hell."

My doom is based on the observation that pretty much all of us are too spoiled to even consider the kinds of sacrifices it would take to begin to address the converging catastrophes crashing down upon us. That, and the run-away global warming that now seems to be swinging into play (see neighboring thread).

[threadbear]

Gosh Dantes, If this ISN'T the superspike, but just a little upward bounce, we are really in trouble!

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TireFire', ' ')Demand will drop in the near future, prior to the end of the year. I believe prices will remain very high (150$ per barrel) and remain there, but world demand and consumption will drop eventually and signs of this happening are already starting to emerge.

[yeahbut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Demand may drop off here in the US somewhat, but not in China, India, Asia, and Latin America, not to mention Russia who has seen 7% growth over the last ten years.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nekcmo', '
')Do we even want oil prices to come down? Getting people to start thinking about conserving oil would be a way to get a slow downward grind instead of running into a brick wall. Even at $4 a gallon my friends hardly flinch from it and still go about buisness as usual.

[TireFire]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TireFire', ' ')Demand will drop in the near future, prior to the end of the year. I believe prices will remain very high (150$ per barrel) and remain there, but world demand and consumption will drop eventually and signs of this happening are already starting to emerge.

[turner]

I don't think it really matters whether its the 'peak' or not. The result of the increase in prices is that people will cut back consumption (good), talk about it (good) and try and work on other options (good). Its win win as far as I am concerned. It was going to happen sooner or later so lets get on with dealing with it. It's going to be shit now or shittier later.

[dohboi]

Good post, turner, but as things seem to be unfolding, we are likely to get crap now, as well as an ever-shittier later.

FireTire, the idea behind powerdown is a conscious, planned reduction of dependence on carbon-based energy. Nothing like that is happening. We haven't even reduced speed limits on highways, for c sake. Demand destruction is not the same as powerdown, as both of those terms are commonly used.

The disastrous way we have dealt with oil issues so far (invading countries, promoting biofuels) does not give one much confidence that we will do anything that helps much in a coordinated fashion.

The tiny reduction in car use over last year (~4%) does not seem very impressive in the face of the huge runup in gas prices, and the near certainty that even steeper increases are just around the corned. If such experiences and expectations only decrease use by this paltry amount, it is not clear what will really change habits, short of massive programs of rationing and education...

[turner]

I understand what you are saying dohboi, but I do waiver between total despair and some small amount of optimism (at times). I am noticing a shift in thinking recently both in the mainstream press and at the local level. I spoke to my mother in Australia today and she said lots of people are starting to grow vegetable gardens and cut back their driving. Water is a big problem there and people have proven themselves very willing to conserve over the last couple of years. It has become unfashionable to be a high consumer of water and power which can only be a good thing. Whether any of this will help us in the long run I don't know but you have to start somewhere and self empowerment does give people a warm feeling.

On the flipside I look at the millions of people in HK where I am living and think we are doomed. There is no capacity to grow anything and all food is imported. There is not much people can do here to change their lifestyle (ok buy less Versace and turn off the air-conditioner) as most people live small and don't drive cars. Then when you think about all the cities like this around the world it is very depressing.

There really is no answer but I'd rather die trying...

[dohboi]

"There is not much people can do here to change their lifestyle"

Yes, many are, or feel, essentially locked in lifestyles that leave them very vulnerable to a rapidly depleting resource base, and that essentially force them to weigh very heavily on the earth.

"There really is no answer but I'd rather die trying..."

Great attitude. I hope it's infectious. Just be sure what you try doesn't make matters worse.

[TireFire]

dohboi,

The name is TireFire, not Firetire.

A powerdown is a conscious, planned reduction of dependence on carbon-based energy.

Who says the powerdown cannot be motivated by financial strain such as a recession or other.