[MD]

Back in the early '80's, OPEC got together and made a new plan: The amount of oil that each member could produce was to be in proportion to their stated reserves.

Within a few short years, all of the major OPEC producers suddenly "found" enough oil to double their reported reserves.

Unfortunately, those same stated reserves have been used by the Energy Information Administration to predict our future availability of oil.

It has recently become evident that OPEC cannot deliver on the production promises that they have been making for decades, which means the world must now turn to harder to process and produce oil reserves. (google "tar sands", "oil sands", "shale oil", "bitumen", "heavy oil")

Unfortunately it will take quite some time and quite a bit of capital investment to construct the necessary refineries that will bring new supplies of finished product (gasoline and diesel) to market.

Therefore you can expect energy prices to remain very high for the foreseeable future.

There will be no return to cheap and plentiful oil. The future will contain a mix of energy sources, all of which will be more expensive than in the past.

[KingM]

The problem with this theory is that it presupposes that the holders of all those unconventional resources didn't develop them because they looked at how many reserves OPEC claimed and figured it was enough. That's the equivalent of your deciding not to go to work today because there is more than enough labor in the country to get the job done.

I'm not saying that OPEC didn't overstate it's reserves, but that this overstatement has nothing to do with production levels in non-OPEC suppliers.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'T')he problem with this theory is that it presupposes that the holders of all those unconventional resources didn't develop them because they looked at how many reserves OPEC claimed and figured it was enough. That's the equivalent of your deciding not to go to work today because there is more than enough labor in the country to get the job done.
I'm not saying that OPEC didn't overstate it's reserves, but that this overstatement has nothing to do with production levels in non-OPEC suppliers.

[killJOY]

The headline is deceiving: it looks like you're calling peak oil the big lie.

[KingM]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'B')ut it does!
Since the OPEC members were unable to constrain their production, the price of oil crashed to very low levels, and remained there for a very long time.
This occurred shortly after much investment had been made in alternatives, which in effect killed much of the alternatives market and the capital which had been invested.
With all of the incredibly cheap oil that has been available for delivery from OPEC (until very recently), you can understand why little investment was made in alternatives. The lesson of the 80's was not forgotten.

[3aidlillahi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut none of that has anything to do with stated reserves, it had to do with the price of the commodity. As everyone here is so fond of point out, it doesn't matter the size of the resource, it's the extraction rate that matters.

[KingM]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3aidlillahi', 'B')ut in this case, OPEC said that what you state is proportional to how much you can produce. So therefore, if you state more, you can produce more which would then push down the price and undercut other "sources" of energy. Had they not increased their stated reserves, production would have remained lower, leading to higher prices thus giving alternatives to conventional oil extraction methods a chance to breathe.

[mididoctors]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'B')ack in the early '80's, OPEC got together and made a new plan: The amount of oil that each member could produce was to be in proportion to
........ snip ...............
Therefore you can expect energy prices to remain very high for the foreseeable future.
There will be no return to cheap and plentiful oil. The future will contain a mix of energy sources, all of which will be more expensive than in the past.

[mididoctors]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'T')he headline is deceiving: it looks like you're calling peak oil the big lie.

[mididoctors]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3aidlillahi', 'B')ut in this case, OPEC said that what you state is proportional to how much you can produce. So therefore, if you state more, you can produce more which would then push down the price and undercut other "sources" of energy. Had they not increased their stated reserves, production would have remained lower, leading to higher prices thus giving alternatives to conventional oil extraction methods a chance to breathe.

[Twilight]

Thanks MD! It is always good to see attention drawn to this.

OPEC members' reserve numbers are no different to cooked books at any other company. Except Kuwait, which was kind enough to backtrack once media and their politicians started asking awkward questions.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('US DOE EIA (website, current)', 'K')uwait itself contains an estimated 101.5 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, roughly 8 percent of the world total...
Source

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3aidlillahi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut none of that has anything to do with stated reserves, it had to do with the price of the commodity. As everyone here is so fond of point out, it doesn't matter the size of the resource, it's the extraction rate that matters.

[mididoctors]

good new article at TOD that touches on this subject

Boris
London

[CamelJockey]

bullshit

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3aidlillahi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut none of that has anything to do with stated reserves, it had to do with the price of the commodity. As everyone here is so fond of point out, it doesn't matter the size of the resource, it's the extraction rate that matters.

[allenwrench]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'T')he problem with this theory is that it presupposes that the holders of all those unconventional resources didn't develop them because they looked at how many reserves OPEC claimed and figured it was enough. That's the equivalent of your deciding not to go to work today because there is more than enough labor in the country to get the job done.
I'm not saying that OPEC didn't overstate it's reserves, but that this overstatement has nothing to do with production levels in non-OPEC suppliers.