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Re: Another Oil price Record

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Re: Another Record ($135.04)

Unread postby olekriri » Thu 22 May 2008, 11:46:00

I think we'll see a significant correction down to $120, but never below $100 again.
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Re: Another Record ($135.04)

Unread postby dorlomin » Thu 22 May 2008, 12:10:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'T')rue or False...

We will never see sub $100 oil again?
So many people and companies are paying the current price with credit and savings that I cant help but feel that there is a strong chance for a downward correction as people burn through there credit and simply exit the market. There may be a bubble and that is a bubble of consumption not price. The current price is not overvalued as the production vs those wishing to purchase means that there are willing buyers, just not sustainable willing buyers.

Cash can be seen as the allocation of resources to collect energy, there is a significant uptick in the resources required to collect the energy of a barrel of oil, once the credit spenders get burned out and go for more fuel efficient transport the price will come down for a bit, but start going up again as Jevons paradox and the transfer of wealth to the East and oil producers means more people using energy more efficiently chase the same (platuae) energy. Then as depletion kicks in price will go up and up as it requires more resoruces to capture less energy.

That is a neat way of saying its gonna be a bumpy unpredictable ride.
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Re: Another Record ($135.04)

Unread postby Novus » Thu 22 May 2008, 12:57:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'T')rue or False...

We will never see sub $100 oil again?


I have to say true we will never see sub $100 oil again.
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Re: Another Record ($135.04)

Unread postby Forney2008 » Thu 22 May 2008, 13:44:05

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.j ... oil122.xml

According to this article oil supplies are expected to increase from increased output from Brazil and Nigeria. Even crazier is it states production will increase in the U.S! How believable is that when U.S production of oil has been declining for three decades now? The article also states that worldwide inventories are increases now as demand stands at average 85.75m bpd for this quarter. Supply was 86.8m bpd in April. I thought demand was 87 bpd? What gives here?
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Re: Another Record ($135.04)

Unread postby Twilight » Thu 22 May 2008, 14:34:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Forney2008', 'W')hat gives here?

This:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The Telegraph', 'B')y Ambrose Evans Pritchard

He's a money man.

There is an element of truth to it though, there will be temporary respite from rising energy prices as successive waves of destruction pass through the economy.
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Re: Another Record ($135.04)

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 22 May 2008, 14:37:19

Forney2008 said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat gives here?


Ever since they increased the number of buttons on a calculator, these analysts have been flipping coins. Latest news this morning is that Nigerian output is expected to FALL by 30% this year, and Brazil WILL have a lot of oil in about 10 years; which is how long it will take to drill all those 20,000 ft holes.

Write the Telegraph an email and tell them to get on the stick!
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Re: Another Record ($135.04)

Unread postby Revi » Thu 22 May 2008, 14:47:42

Here's Phil Flynn's take on the reason for the recent runup in oil:

http://www.321energy.com/reports/flynn/current.html

I think the price will go down a bit now. It has to correct a bit.
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Re: Another Record ($135.04)

Unread postby AlwaysThere » Thu 22 May 2008, 14:51:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'T')rue or False...

We will never see sub $100 oil again?


Why should we ? My income and home value has tripled in the last 8 years, why shouldn't the cost of living increase as well ?

I do not understand why $135 oil is such a big deal. Everything has gone up, including salaries. Want to pay your fuel bill ? Turn off the cable TV, nix the cell phone, quit eating out 15 times a month, and cut your discretionary driving. Those things alone will save you at least $500 a month to spend on energy.
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Re: Another Record ($135.04)

Unread postby Twilight » Thu 22 May 2008, 15:03:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'L')atest news this morning is that Nigerian output is expected to FALL by 30% this year...

Got a link? I do not see it posted here. I have been thinking it has been a bit quiet on that front lately. So long as food prices stay where they are, I would expect the risks to Nigerian oil production to remain firmly to the downside.
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Re: Another Record ($135.04)

Unread postby jbrovont » Thu 22 May 2008, 15:06:39

Good point. I used to work for a guy who bought and refurbished red-tagged houses. There was an inside joke at the company that the surest way to spot a forclosure was a direct-tv dish on the side of the house.

The other side of this is of course people who work minimum wage jobs or are on fixed incomes. If you figure out the average drive to work and figure out how much it costs a fixed income earner on average to go to work, when the price of gas gets high enough, there's going to be a breaking point where it doesn't pay to go to work anymore. At that point I'm guessing we'll start seeing waves of abrupt economic reorganization where people will either start taking busses, changing jobs, moving etc. to be able to keep working.

Where that is I'm not sure - but we're probably close, since people on minimum wage jobs probably won't be drivngthe newest fuel efficient cars. With prices climbing so quickly, it's easy to see a scenario where it's proftable to go to work one month, and not the next.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlwaysThere', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'T')rue or False...

We will never see sub $100 oil again?


Why should we ? My income and home value has tripled in the last 8 years, why shouldn't the cost of living increase as well ?

I do not understand why $135 oil is such a big deal. Everything has gone up, including salaries. Want to pay your fuel bill ? Turn off the cable TV, nix the cell phone, quit eating out 15 times a month, and cut your discretionary driving. Those things alone will save you at least $500 a month to spend on energy.
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Re: Another Record ($135.04)

Unread postby UncoveringTruths » Thu 22 May 2008, 15:08:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlwaysThere', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'T')rue or False...

We will never see sub $100 oil again?


Why should we ? My income and home value has tripled in the last 8 years, why shouldn't the cost of living increase as well ?

I do not understand why $135 oil is such a big deal. Everything has gone up, including salaries. Want to pay your fuel bill ? Turn off the cable TV, nix the cell phone, quit eating out 15 times a month, and cut your discretionary driving. Those things alone will save you at least $500 a month to spend on energy.


Depends on what your income level is most people with lower income levels have done the things you mention or are doing them. This will have an overall affect on the economy since we have done away with most of our manufacturing industry by outsourcing and have become a service orientated economy. Salaries may have increased but they have not increased commensurately with the true inflation rate when including energy and food prices.

Its easy to sit back and say "so" what when your sitting large like a fat cat.

Think feed back loops.
It's a cold cold world when a man has to pawn his shoes.
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Re: Another Record ($135.04)

Unread postby AlwaysThere » Thu 22 May 2008, 15:18:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('UncoveringTruths', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlwaysThere', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'T')rue or False...

We will never see sub $100 oil again?


Why should we ? My income and home value has tripled in the last 8 years, why shouldn't the cost of living increase as well ?

I do not understand why $135 oil is such a big deal. Everything has gone up, including salaries. Want to pay your fuel bill ? Turn off the cable TV, nix the cell phone, quit eating out 15 times a month, and cut your discretionary driving. Those things alone will save you at least $500 a month to spend on energy.


Depends on what your income level is most people with lower income levels have done the things you mention or are doing them. This will have an overall affect on the economy since we have done away with most of our manufacturing industry by outsourcing and have become a service orientated economy. Salaries may have increased but they have not increased commensurately with the true inflation rate when including energy and food prices.

Its easy to sit back and say "so" what when your sitting large like a fat cat.

Think feed back loops.


I hate to be harsh, but the last time I checked the majority of people on the planet live on less than $1 a day. We, no doubt are in for some hard times, but as a co-worker told me early in my working days when I was complaining about something, "Nobody ever said life was going to be easy". Matt Simmons said Oil should be $300 a barrel, I agree. That will collapse the US economy, but maybe that is what we need, there is simply too much waste and profilegate spending here.

BTW: I do consider myself wealthy, but not a "Fat Cat" as you say. I have saved the money I made, sold a house at the right time and live simply, I could have very easily have went out and reinvested my equity in more expensive piece of Ca. real estate, but chose not to and bought a house in another less prosperous area for cash.
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Re: Another Record ($135.04)

Unread postby Revi » Thu 22 May 2008, 15:21:15

The big money is not going to be made off of this rally. I guess it hit some price point that the big money decided meant this one's overdone:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... fer=energy
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Re: Another Record ($135.04)

Unread postby charliehelyes » Thu 22 May 2008, 15:32:47

$135.09
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Re: Another Record ($135.04)

Unread postby Dan1195 » Thu 22 May 2008, 15:36:09

Pretty sharp pullback today. Back down to $130. RBOB down even sharper, down 10 cents from yesterdays high. Might be able to keep the national gasoline average below $4 (for now). Overall the trend is still solidly upwords though.
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Re: Another Record ($135.04)

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 22 May 2008, 16:00:33

So a drop to the low, low price of $130.85 means we're out of the woods now, I guess. Nothing happening here. Move on to the next thing.
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Re: Another Record ($135.09)

Unread postby Duende » Thu 22 May 2008, 17:46:31

dohboi wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o a drop to the low, low price of $130.85 means we're out of the woods now, I guess. Nothing happening here. Move on to the next thing.


You got it.

I kinda reminds me of this experiment we did in science class in 7th grade. We had to build bridges out of toothpicks and see how much weight they could take until the inevitable result.

That's what's happening with the news coverage regarding oil prices. It's front headlines the day a new record occurs, but barely gets a mention on 'slow' days. I guess the media thinks "well if $135 doesn't 'break the camel's back' then it's not really news."

The fact of the matter of course is that the high prices cumulatively act negatively upon the economy - just like the weights hanging on the toothpick bridge... until one day, a new record is hit and - SNAP.
"Where is the man who has so much as to be out of danger?" -Thomas Huxley
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Re: Another Record ($135.09)

Unread postby frankthetank » Thu 22 May 2008, 20:23:11

Wait.... $130 is not cheap! Jesus. We just passed $100 not long ago. I was just talking about how i thought we were heading back to $90 a month or so ago! Now it seems that most agree that we'll probably never see sub $100 again. Its nuts. I think these new prices haven't even started to hit yet.


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Re: Another Record ($135.04)

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Thu 22 May 2008, 20:46:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'S')o a drop to the low, low price of $130.85 means we're out of the woods now, I guess. Nothing happening here. Move on to the next thing.


Yeah, now that PO is solved, let's move on to Avian Flu .......... :lol:
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Re: Another Record ($135.09)

Unread postby hironegro » Thu 22 May 2008, 21:30:09

jesus who let the boot strap crowd in?
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