[PeakingAroundtheCorner]

WTF? CNBC's ticker is showing prices nearly $2 lower than my sources on the internets.

I know there's a lag but damn. Showing $125.75 above while CNBC is showing $123.90.

That's a hell of a difference and if that's the difference between the current posted price on CNBC and the delayed price on the Internets, then that's one hell of a dump in the space of 15 minutes.

What gives?

[joewp]

It's down to $122.90 now. The price has dropped about $3.00 in less than an hour. Did the Saudis announce they're opening up the spigots and going to pump 15mb/d of light sweet from now on?

Actually, I think this is a "technicals" driven plunge. The market failed to top the last high of $126.98 and speculators started selling off. Buyers will come in by the time it gets down to $115 and send it back up again.

[PeakingAroundtheCorner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'I')t's down to $122.90 now. The price has dropped about $3.00 in less than an hour. Did the Saudis announce they're opening up the spigots and going to pump 15mb/d of light sweet from now on?

Actually, I think this is a "technicals" driven plunge. The market failed to top the last high of $126.98 and speculators started selling off. Buyers will come in by the time it gets down to $115 and send it back up again.

[threadbear]

The 'resident is on a saber rattling tour of the Middle East right now, bullying Iran to appease the hard core nut cases in Israel. That accounts for a risk premium of at least 20.00. Bush isn't going to get really serious with Saudi Arabia about opening spigots, if he's serious about bombing Iran, as he'll want Americans to be in--bomb the ass off a fruitfly--mode, before Autumn. Joe Idiotstick will hate anything even remotely Middle Eastern by the time they're ready to bomb Iran.

This isn't entirely an Opec situation. It's joint yankee/Saudi operation, coupled with depletion problems. Remove the froth of a maniacal mismanaged govt and their manipulations, and the ensuing speculation, and prices would be back down around 80.00 in today's dollars.

[Chaparral]

The June contract plunged to 121.51 in a matter of mintues. This reminds me of the price action back in mid March when we had that 7 dollar movement within a single trading day. Glad I was only long one emini.

Mind you, see what happened in the few days following that mid March sell off.

[RSB]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080515/oil_prices.html?.v=28

The given explanation is natural gas + stronger dollar + June future contracts expiration date drawing nearer.

[Chaparral]

^ WTF?? The US dollar is weaker today and at any rate, oil and the buck rose together last week. I call BS on that story.

As for contract expiry, quite a few times when we've hit contract expiry the price in the last several months, crude has shot through the roof as supplies at Cushing fell short.

Methinks Vic Niederhoffer was right when he opined that the financial media just pull any old story that is remotely plausible out of their asses and toss it out to the public.

The entire commodity complex sold off today at about the same time and is now recovering with the metals and wheat being in positive territory. I think it might be a little bit of "sell in May and go away" kicking in.

[olekriri]

Above $124 again. Very volatile price right now...

[Iaato]

ICE Stops Trading After Outage-Bloomberg

The irony is punishing.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')May 15 (Bloomberg) -- Intercontinental Exchange Inc., the owner of Europe's largest energy market, said trading on its ICE Futures exchanges stopped today because of a power outage.

``We had an emergency power outage at our main technical facility in Chicago,'' spokeswoman Kelly Loeffler said. ``We hope to have the markets back up in the next hour.''

Unexecuted active over-the-counter and options orders ``have been held,'' the exchange said in a release on its Web site. Unexecuted active futures orders have been canceled.

``I think you saw a panic and a lot of people with exposure on ICE would have flocked to the Nymex to cover their exposure,'' said Stephen Schork, principal of the trading firm The Schork Group, Inc. ``Lets chalk one up for open outcry because this is a catastrophe.''"

[biofuel13]

Lagos pipeline blast 'kills 100'

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7403525.stm

Ok I just got a chance to look at what oil has been doing today. I see that there has been a massive pipeline explosion...Why hasn't NYMEX moved to $130 on this news?

[joewp]

Up $2.50 down $3.00 and closes up a few cents.

Just another day on the oil markets near the peak.

[chuck6877]

Technically we're also at the top of a trading channel that should provide resistance.

This chart is courtesy of Clive Maund from his recent editorial found here:
http://www.321energy.com/editorials/mau ... 51408.html


Also we're stretched out really far above the 200 day moving average. 1.39 times the 200 day moving average has been pretty much the limit for gold and oil the last several years.

THESE CHARTS TAKE A WHILE TO LOAD, but they're worth waiting for:
[web]http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24wtic[/web]

We're due for a pull back to the 200 day/40 week moving average which is rising very quickly, a little consolidation, and then on our way to $200 oil and beyond....

I think the lowest we'll see will be $100 personally. Maybe trade sideways till the 200dma rises to $100 and then begin the next monster leg up? I think this correction will last 2-3 months before the price will bottom and then rise again....

We very well could go to $115 like you said joewp and trade sideways for a while on the 50 day moving average which is also a big support point, allowing the moving averages to rise and then oil could go up to new highs again.... This is probably less likely than going to $100 and the 200 day moving average though because this run up has been so massive and there's that long term channel top we're up against right now....

Don't ever doubt that TECHNICAL ANALYSIS has a lot to do with the trading of oil because it does......

Chuck

[careinke]

I agree with Chuck we should be seeing a technical pull back. Wave theory, candlestick reading, P& F charts, and about three other VooDoo stock prediction methods all point toward a near term downward price movement.

More VooDoo Graphs

I'm envisioning a pullback to around $107 - $102. People will think the worst is over.... then we get hit upside the head with even higher prices.

Cliff (Start a rEVOLution, grow a garden)

[Armageddon]

I don't see a pull back heading into peak driving season in the US. It is every US citizens God given right to drive, drive, drive . Remember Cheney's slogan ? " The American way of life is not negotiable". * end sarcasm *

[joewp]

I agree that it could be time for a pullback, that's why I'm only using straddles right now instead of long calls. One good early hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will blow all that technical analysis out of the water, though.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'I') don't see a pull back heading into peak driving season in the US. It is every US citizens God given right to drive, drive, drive .

[chuck6877]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '
') Technical analysis works only because so many believe it does and they follow it.

[idomar]

I'm not a chartist, neither do i pretend to know what a lot of 'technical' analysis means, however I have a question for you, excuse the preamble:

I can understand how charting and technical analysis may be useful for stocks relating to corporations on the various stock exchanges, these corporations do not report on a weekly basis the the performance of their companies and of their suppliers from all over the world.

People can choose to shop at different stores, buy from different suppliers and sell in different markets. Rumour may push up the value of a stock into 'overbought' or 'oversold' and towards or away from various moving average bands.

Now for the question(s):

Does the oil market really behave in the same way?

Can tecnical analysis on the oil market really be trusted when there are so many external factors that could affect it.

i.e Analyst 1 says that 'Oil is overbought at the moment and we are expecting a pull back'

meteorologist 1 says there is a hurricane forming in the GOM

Newscaster 1 says there is another bombing in Nigeria

Politician 1 says, we are happy with the price of oil

OPEC says the market is currently well supplied

HELP!!

[ohcomeon]

127.11 on MSNBC right now

[olekriri]

$127.40

[olekriri]

$127.43 is the new record. Now it's going down again...