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Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Postby threadbear » Thu 08 May 2008, 16:57:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', 'A')re "Americans" the only ones speculating on oil? I don't think so.

joeltrout


Hardly, but they have the largest piles of money that is losing value, and are desperately seeking safe havens. Do you think other govts might synchronize their interventions with the American govt? Count on it if it causes civil unrest, particularly in developed nations.

Eventually, we will end up with expensive oil, but without the surcharge that excessive speculation brings. For govts, it's a survival issue.
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Postby UncoveringTruths » Thu 08 May 2008, 17:00:53

I've got a feeling that just changing a law to prevent the purchase of oil on the global markets will not be as easy as the lawmakers think. It's not like flipping a switch. Aren't some folks already out on a limb in foriegn future markets? How would they renogatiate the delivery sometime in the future to an American market if the purchases have already been made.

Please excuse my ingnorance on this issue.
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Postby threadbear » Thu 08 May 2008, 17:20:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('UncoveringTruths', 'I')'ve got a feeling that just changing a law to prevent the purchase of oil on the global markets will not be as easy as the lawmakers think. It's not like flipping a switch. Aren't some folks already out on a limb in foriegn future markets? How would they renogatiate the delivery sometime in the future to an American market if the purchases have already been made.

Please excuse my ingnorance on this issue.


We are all ignorant on this issue. No apologies required. Here's an interesting article, regarding commodities and govt intervention. Many investors are jumping off the wheat and rice boat now, as govt intervention is assumed to be in the cards. This could easily happen to the oil markets, as well. The article I'm linking to, doesn't necessarily agree with my point of view, but it's worth a look. If govts are willing to intervene to cool commodity markets (rice is dropping in price, as a consequence), then why would they not do this for oil?

Oil is so over. I give almost the entire rotting complex 10 years and would avoid it like the plague, as an investor. Many of the masters of that greasy universe, and all the little dumbass investors are going to get burned. As a Canadian, I can see it destroying half of our population's retirement funds. Too bad.

Ed Roseman's eruptions:

The argument among the agricultural bears is that grain prices are too hot, too widely publicized in the popular press and eventually will draw some sort of government response to control prices. That might be true, if only temporarily. High oil and gas prices have already made headlines for the last several years, yet prices remain at record highs amid a shortage of about 2 million barrels of crude daily. But when it comes to food, investors should probably take notice because voters have to eat. They do not necessarily have to drive.

http://rosemanblog.sovereignsociety.com ... -impl.html
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Postby joeltrout » Thu 08 May 2008, 17:27:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')
Oil is so over. I give almost the entire rotting complex 10 years and would avoid it like the plague, as an investor. Many of the masters of that greasy universe, and all the little dumbass investors are going to get burned. As a Canadian, I can see it destroying half of our population's retirement funds. Too bad.



threadbear,

Do you believe in peak oil? Your above argument leads me to think that you do not.

The high prices today are because of tight supplies. If oil production peaks soon then those supplies will get even tighter and eventually non-existent therefore shooting prices through the roof until true demand destruction takes place.

There is definitely speculation in the market which inflates price but I think that is minimal compared to the supply/demand issues.

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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Postby threadbear » Thu 08 May 2008, 17:36:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')
Oil is so over. I give almost the entire rotting complex 10 years and would avoid it like the plague, as an investor. Many of the masters of that greasy universe, and all the little dumbass investors are going to get burned. As a Canadian, I can see it destroying half of our population's retirement funds. Too bad.



threadbear,

Do you believe in peak oil? Your above argument leads me to think that you do not.

The high prices today are because of tight supplies. If oil production peaks soon then those supplies will get even tighter and eventually non-existent therefore shooting prices through the roof until true demand destruction takes place.

There is definitely speculation in the market which inflates price but I think that is minimal compared to the supply/demand issues.

joeltrout


I absolutely believe in peak oil and think that a price in the mid eighties reflects that. Further, I think even if the price rises no further, the entire social focus will shift towards alternatives, because 4.00 per gal gasoline, is onerous for many.

Just before you get the signal, as to which alternative is the best bet, insiders in the corporate elite will, and pile on to the new new thing, insuring oil price will eventually drop. May take 10 years.

It's like Frogger, if you're old enough to remember that game.
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Postby dbruning » Thu 08 May 2008, 17:43:18

"They try to maneuver themselves into a position where there are no checks and balances against them. This is what you are seeing now. Government is the only entity large enough to take them on. "

Problem is Government these days = Pirates that have successfully maneuvered themselves into a position where there are no checks and balances against them.

Just one more nail in the coffin.

ARRRRR Matey! Welcome aboard, we see you "won" the election. Now hold still while we fix you up with your eyepatch and parrot.
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Postby joeltrout » Thu 08 May 2008, 17:45:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
') Just before you get the signal, as to which alternative is the best bet, insiders in the corporate elite will, and pile on to the new new thing, insuring oil price will eventually drop. May take 10 years.


I think most people see solar and wind being a big part of that but our electrical grid wont be able to handle that for some years to come. Here is a good article on the oildrum talking about our grid.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')It's like Frogger, if you're old enough to remember that game.


It doesn't ring a bell. Born in 82 and really dont remember much before the mid 90s. :cry:

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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Postby Jack » Thu 08 May 2008, 18:15:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'I') absolutely believe in peak oil and think that a price in the mid eighties reflects that. Further, I think even if the price rises no further, the entire social focus will shift towards alternatives, because 4.00 per gal gasoline, is onerous for many.


Let's see now...who really controls the oil?

KSA? Mexico? Venezuela? Russian Federation? ExxonMobile? Or some mere hedge funds and speculators?

Are we saying that KSA, with all its oil, all its resources, is less of a factor than some group of hedge fund operators? I find that difficult to believe.

And you say that $4.00 gas is onerous for many. Maybe. But when I get on the expressway, I notice lots of other cars - going in both directions. On city streets I see traffic snarls and jams. At the drive-through on fast food places, I see lines. Maybe it is onerous - but not to such a degree that their behavior is changed.

I do suspect the government will do all manner of silly things to oil companies, speculators, and so on - which will guarantee shortages.

Enjoy.

8)
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Postby jlw61 » Thu 08 May 2008, 18:17:57

I love the socialist attitudes.

Blame America. Control the markets. Drive out speculators. Capitalism is bad. Corporations are evil. We will conquer the world.

Yawn.

The fundamental problem with the oil market is that 95% of the oil is controlled by governments. Most of these governments are anything but lovers of freedom and capitalists. They don't love capitalism but they do love the wealth and technology provided by capitalism. Sadly, this is the very same hypocritical thinking that drives so many socialist.

With 95% of the oil being nationalized, the oil market does not run on the free market paradigm but is a oligopoly market. Further complicating the matter is that open competition has been crushed by the specter of depletion of the resource.

If there is a conspiracy going on, it is not with the oil majors unless it is in conjunction with their governments and/or they truly believe they can keep the knowledge hidden forever. Can you imagine what would happen if it could be proved that Exxon was manipulating the oil prices higher? The American public would go absolutely ape-shit and a number of Exxon executives would likely spend time in jail and lose their assets.

Will there be a move towards socialism/communism in America when TSHTF? If there is it will be because the soft-headed sheeple will run toward anyone promising to fix the problem. The sheeple do not think, do not consider, do not care about anything beyond their fat asses and soft sofas. When the time comes, there will be a lot of sheeple running to anyone promising salvation in without asking a single question.

Those who stand back and do nothing will be as guilty as the evil bastards promising salvation in exchange for civil liberites. It is the same story that is told over and over and who knows, perhaps this time America will prove too tough of a nut to crack. If not, then when the sheeple are rounded up, the wolves will simply take off their lambskins and the sheeple will have the government they deserve; darkness will descend upon the world and everyone will be united in misery.

Except, of course, for the wolves who will feast like never before.
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Postby smiley » Thu 08 May 2008, 18:24:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')roblem is Government these days = Pirates that have successfully maneuvered themselves into a position where there are no checks and balances against them.


Do you really believe that something has changed since the days of kings and knights?
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Postby Ferretlover » Thu 08 May 2008, 18:28:25

Who will actually benefit from this law? In the short-term? In the long-term?
Could this influence other countries not to invest in the US?
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Postby Revi » Thu 08 May 2008, 18:32:40

I don't think the people who proposed this law have any idea how the market works. Who really knows? I think they got a lot of mail from their constituents demanding some action on speculators, and they wrote up this law and are now trying to pass it.

No other reason.
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Postby jlw61 » Thu 08 May 2008, 18:35:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') don't think the people who proposed this law have any idea how the market works. Who really knows? I think they got a lot of mail from their constituents demanding some action on speculators, and they wrote up this law and are now trying to pass it.

No other reason.


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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Postby americandream » Thu 08 May 2008, 18:49:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'O')ne more thing...Free marketeers are enthrall to the idea of letting markets function without outside interferance, and can make several disingenuous arguments to support their case.

Free markets, completely outside of a "greater good" philosophy become more like a high seas where pirates prevail, than the good ship lollipop, skippered by Andrew Carnegie, enriching all those who adopt the "right attitude."

Pretty soon the pirates own, or at least, commandeer all of the food and energy, and to hell with everyone else. They try to maneuver themselves into a position where there are no checks and balances against them. This is what you are seeing now. Government is the only entity large enough to take them on.

But don't take my word for it, just keep believing what you believe until you become committed hare core communists after the shtf. Fundamentalists usually swing from one extreme to the other.


Aaaahh...another dwang who believes that regulation of capitalism works! It does not. Capitalism simply follows it's natural impulse as surely as your instincts drive you...which is to acquire capital..........(with the odd intervention to ensure that the good ship is still on course)...

no mom and pop remedies are going to overwhelm that impetus despite what drivel you've been fed. And, yes, marxism will naturally arise from the ashes that result! Get used to the idea.
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Postby Starvid » Thu 08 May 2008, 18:51:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')hey really don't get it do they? I was wondering what Hillary was talking about when she proposed some of the crazy stuff she's thinking about. Fortunately Obama seems a little smarter.
Hillary should be PO-aware. At least her husband is.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bill Clinton, March 28, 2006', '[')b]We may be at a point of peak oil production. You may see $100 a barrel oil in the next two or three years
http://www.energybulletin.net/15300.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bill Clinton, July 13, 2006', 'I') was reading a book the other day by a guy just bashing the living hell out of me, saying that he was certain the CIA briefed me once a week on how America was running out of oil and I did nothing serious about it. Of course he ignored what we tried to do and got our brains beat out doing. But that's not true.

To the best of my knowledge I never had a security briefing which said what some of these very serious but conservative petroleum geologists say, which is they think that either now or before the decade is out that we'll reach peak oil production globally and with the rise of China and India and others coming along unless we can dramatically reduce our oil usage we will run out of recoverable oil within 35 to 50 years.

And that would mean in addition to climate change we have a very short time in the life of the planet to turn this around. So I think that we all need to start ... thinking about that. As we propose practical solutions to climate change, we all need to keep this in the back of our minds.

There's a good chance that these people who made a living all these years studying petroleum deposits know what they're talking about, and we may not have as much oil as we think. So we need to get in gear.
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Postby americandream » Thu 08 May 2008, 18:55:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', 'A')re "Americans" the only ones speculating on oil? I don't think so.

joeltrout


Hardly, but they have the largest piles of money that is losing value, and are desperately seeking safe havens. Do you think other govts might synchronize their interventions with the American govt? Count on it if it causes civil unrest, particularly in developed nations.

Eventually, we will end up with expensive oil, but without the surcharge that excessive speculation brings. For govts, it's a survival issue.


I think you've an inflated notion of your monetary worth as a nation..but never mind. You're doing a wonderful job of shooting yourselves in the foot.
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Postby mmasters » Thu 08 May 2008, 20:04:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jlw61', 'T')he fundamental problem with the oil market is that 95% of the oil is controlled by governments.

As the fundamental problem with governments is they are 95% controlled by the banks.
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Postby RdSnt » Thu 08 May 2008, 20:34:25

I believe the phenomenon of the oil price spike is much more complicated and opaque than it seems in public.
Consider all the phantom money that has been generated by the american mortgage scam. The trillions of dollars of paper dollars that are floating around without a home.
This money can't be redeemed for cash, it doesn't actually have any tangible asset to back it up.
We've seen these "ledger_demain" amounts re-multiply with phantom returns, re-chopped into even newer investment vehicles, shift around like the ultimate ponzi scheme it really is.
Since the "investments" can't be redeemed for real money, it is being shifted to speculative investments in oil, thus driving up the price of oil.

You see, the phantom money can't be shifted into gold or silver assets because of the special nature of those commodities. They are "real" money and you need proof that you funds are equally as real as the gold or silver.
Oil on the other had is a contract for something that hasn't been extracted yet. Perhaps you can think of it as a real-time contract, in that the oil is potentially going to be pulled from the ground in the very near future. It is also going to be consumed right away, thus disappearing from the market. Gold doesn't disappear, very, very little of it is consumed and removed from the market. For the most part it is stored, thus deriving a tangible value that is unlike almost any other commodity.
You can't "launder" derived, paper money through gold, since the gold doesn't disappear.
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Re: Americans to be banned from overseas oil trading

Postby Plantagenet » Thu 08 May 2008, 20:34:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bill Clinton, July 13, 2006', 'I') was reading a book the other day by a guy just bashing the living hell out of me, saying that he was certain the CIA briefed me once a week on how America was running out of oil and I did nothing serious about it. Of course he ignored what we tried to do and got our brains beat out doing.


Poor Bill. He's always sees himself as the victim.

Of course the record is clear on what Bill Clinton did to get the country ready for peak oil.....LESS THEN NOTHING.

--The strategic oil reserve would already be filled and at much lower prices then we are paying now if Clinton hadn't stopped filling it to pander during elections.
--ANWR would be coming on line with 2 million barrels of oil per day of new domestic oil production for the US if Clinton hadn't vetoed Congressional bills allowing oil development there.
--bin Laden would've been taken out and 9/11 never would've happened if Clinton hadn't blocked the CIA from terminating him with extreme prejudice when a team on the ground spotted bin Laden and requested authorization to kill bin Laden in 1998.
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