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Re: Another Oil price Record

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Another Record ($123.93)

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 08 May 2008, 11:25:15

yesplease said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ortunately, whether or not an estimate is correct usually doesn't impact price significantly.


What that means I don’t have a clue, what I quoted said previous estimate, not future estimate. Previous estimates are verifiable, if you haven’t noticed.

yesplease said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n the world market, coal prices have increased, although it's link to oil price is dubious at best.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Coal May Surpass Oil as Better Bet on Demand for Cheaper Fuel

Coal is poised to top its recent highs because of record oil and natural-gas prices, said Francisco Blanch, chief commodity analyst at Merrill Lynch & Co. in London. In Europe, coal was $62.55 a ton last week and reached a 10-month high of $66.83 in March, broker ICAP said. Prices paid by U.S. utilities will climb 5 percent in the next year and double by 2021, said Price, a former vice president at Peabody Energy Corp., the largest U.S. coal producer.

Bloomberg

Mr. Blanch, and the rest of the planet, probably would think that your comment is ludicrous, and it is. Of course coal will replace oil to what ever extent possible, because as an energy source coal is still cheaper. Coal is going up because oil is going up. “ although it's link to oil price is dubious at best”; this may be the most ill thought out comment I have ever heard!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nnual coal contract prices in Asia may surpass all-time highs within the next 12 months. Deutsche Bank analysts, led by Peter Richardson in Melbourne, predict prices of $58 a metric ton next year and $59.50 in 2009, from about $55.50 for the year that started April1. Goldman Sachs Group said it expected $56 a ton next year.

Bloomberg

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ave you seen the price of coal lately? In 2008, thermal coal prices are set to double, from about $55 to $125 per ton. That’s based on a recent agreement between Japan’s Chubu Electric Power and the giant mining firm Xstrata, and it should become the benchmark for 2000-09 contract prices worldwide.

Spot prices for thermal coal have tripled in the past 12 months. And spot prices for coking coal (used to make steel) have quadrupled in the last 12 months. Just in the last two months, those prices have doubled. Do you notice any patterns?

Whiskey&Gunpowder

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orldwide supply problems cause coal prices to soar Canada's biggest producer of coal for the steelmaking industry appears poised or a massive increase in profits, thanks to a "massive squeeze" in global supply.

topix

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')lobal coal supply will fall short by up to 35 million tons in 2008 and the deficit is set to grow going forward, ensuring that prices remain strong, the CEO of coal miner Arch Coal said on Monday.

Coal Plant, coal supplies, coal, arch coal Nati Harnik / AP
"We estimate that global supply of coal will be short between 25 and 35 million tons this year," Steve Leer told analysts at an energy conference.

The estimate differs from one given in March, in which Leer said Arch Coal estimated the world would be between 30 and 40 million tons short of coal this year.

CNBC


yesplease said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')and as such I tend to be a bit skeptical of those who say it's so because they said so”,


This is definitely an aphorism! After viewing some of your comments above I’d say, “I would rather believe someone who engages their brain once in a while than someone who is relying on the Force”!
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Re: Another Record ($123.93)

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 08 May 2008, 16:57:47

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Re: Another Record ($123.93)

Unread postby Dan1195 » Thu 08 May 2008, 16:58:04

We have seen the same thing with the price of oil now for 2 days in a row. It stays relatively stable then makes a move upward toward the end of the session. Now at $124.50
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Re: Another Record ($123.93)

Unread postby strider3700 » Thu 08 May 2008, 17:08:37

That could be investors expecting the price to drop but each day before going home deciding to get in just in case TSHTF overnight while they sleep.
shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
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Re: Another Record ($123.93)

Unread postby joewp » Thu 08 May 2008, 17:20:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', 'T')hat could be investors expecting the price to drop but each day before going home deciding to get in just in case TSHTF overnight while they sleep.


It could also be refiners waiting for the price to drop and having to get in to lock in their prices for next month before they shoot up more. About 85% of the traders on the NYMEX are actual oil producers and oil users locking in prices, if not taking physical delivery.

That's who's really driving up the market. The speculators just follow them up or down.

Oh yes, a new record set in after hours: $124.61
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Re: Another Record ($123.93)

Unread postby chris-h » Thu 08 May 2008, 17:27:45

88822-88822=0
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Re: Another Record ($123.93)

Unread postby Valdemar » Thu 08 May 2008, 17:32:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', 'h')ttp://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/05/sexy-dancing-vs-peak-oil.php


Totally off-topic and months old. Not all that productive.
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Re: Another Record ($124.61)

Unread postby Revi » Thu 08 May 2008, 18:13:14

Here's the story from Yahoo news:

make your links shorter

A new record every day. When's it going to cool off a bit?
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Another Record ($124.61)

Unread postby Daculling » Thu 08 May 2008, 21:07:13

Oil Trades Above $124 After Touching Record on Supply Concerns



Rachel Ziemba an analyst at RGE Monitor, an economic research company in New York. ``The dynamic we are looking at is that of oil behaving as a financial asset.''




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Re: Another Record ($124.61)

Unread postby MD » Thu 08 May 2008, 21:14:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The dynamic we are looking at is that of oil behaving as a financial asset.''


Isn't that how a scarce resource usually behaves?
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: Another Record ($124.61)

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 08 May 2008, 21:31:34

Anybody want to take a guess at how long this financial system can last with oil at $120.00 + ? 12 months is my guess, before you see failure at many levels.
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Re: Another Record ($124.61)

Unread postby biofuel13 » Thu 08 May 2008, 23:15:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'A')nybody want to take a guess at how long this financial system can last with oil at $120.00 + ? 12 months is my guess, before you see failure at many levels.



I am in complete agreement Armageddon. About a year from now we will begin to see the entire economic system unraveling before our eyes. However, I also think that within 6-8 months the downward spiral will start to become so blatant that social unrest may preempt financial collapse.
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Re: Another Record ($119.22)

Unread postby catbox » Fri 09 May 2008, 00:55:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('catbox', 'S')eems like more and more Street types are getting PO now.

Sorry if this is a repost or in the wrong place:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... fer=energy

This is a day when I bring the Macbook to work to watch the show!
125 by Thursday?

cb


Man, I almost had it! Looks like 125 by Friday will be more like it.

cb
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Re: Another Record ($124.61)

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 09 May 2008, 02:05:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('biofuel13', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'A')nybody want to take a guess at how long this financial system can last with oil at $120.00 + ? 12 months is my guess, before you see failure at many levels.



I am in complete agreement Armageddon. About a year from now we will begin to see the entire economic system unraveling before our eyes. However, I also think that within 6-8 months the downward spiral will start to become so blatant that social unrest may preempt financial collapse.



The unraveling may have already started. It is just that things take time to run their course. We are past the point of no return. Now it is just time to sit back and enjoy the show, in a sick kind of way.
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Re: Another Record ($124.61)

Unread postby catbox » Fri 09 May 2008, 02:10:52

Now I have all the folks in my office betting on where oil will go...it's almost surreal to here everyone getting jazzed up about 124! They still seem to be in denial, but getting a bit more clear on PO as we play our office oil game.

cb
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Re: Another Record ($119.22)

Unread postby biofuel13 » Fri 09 May 2008, 02:15:16

cb[/quote]

Man, I almost had it! Looks like 125 by Friday will be more like it.

cb[/quote]

Nice prediction CB. What's your best guess on a date for $200
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Re: Another Record ($124.61)

Unread postby Gandalf_the_White » Fri 09 May 2008, 03:28:39

There is no limit now. Sachs may have been signalling the feds inability to start raising rates to combat inflation. it's not really a matter of a recession now, its a matter of what kind of recession they want. Do they want a total meltdown in the credit markets, or do they want energetic inflation and a new round of lending and mortaging of the future? My guess is they would prefer the latter so that even though they have been expected to try to put things on hold, they will lower rates by at least another point before the end of the summer. We could see zero if the law allows it. They have done everything they can and the Dow shed 200 points again this week.

If they raise interest rates, the dollar strengthens, oil goes down a little bit, the Dow goes down, a sinkhole the size of Arkansas opens up in the middle of America and millions of American homes fall into it. If they drop interest rates oil goes up, the dollar goes down, the Dow feels falsely buoyed and credit stays dry because the painful lesson of defaults has been learned, the trade deficit does down, interest paid on the debt goes down.

My bet is rates will be cut again in the next month and oil will test $130 by Memorial Day. And this is all when we have not even really seen Peak Oil lift itself up like a 24,000 mile long King Cobra yet. Once the market really believes there will be less oil next year than this year they will blow through $150 like nothing.

A cat 3 hurricane tracking into the Houston area could easily see us at $200 by mid-September under those circumstances.

Get ready people! If we said get ready at $70, then you better know that the lower half of the American income spectrum is going to get a very crude awakening when gas prices catch up with oil prices. Either shortages or $5 this summer at these prices.
I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
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Re: Another Record ($123.93)

Unread postby yesplease » Fri 09 May 2008, 04:05:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]yesplease said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ortunately, whether or not an estimate is correct usually doesn't impact price significantly.


What that means I don’t have a clue
Hopefully you'll figure it out... Eventually. Then again, maybe you won't. ;)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'M')r. Blanch, and the rest of the planet, probably would think that your comment is ludicrous, and it is. Of course coal will replace oil to what ever extent possible, because as an energy source coal is still cheaper. Coal is going up because oil is going up. “ although it's link to oil price is dubious at best”; this may be the most ill thought out comment I have ever heard!
Hmmm... Lets see, on one hand, if we were replacing oil with coal for energy, the vast majority of which would be for electricity generation, countries like the US, may have to replace a whole 3-6% of electricity produced from oil with coal. Assuming of course we replace that all with coal, which we haven't, but I suppose others could have. The question then is by how much?

Otoh, coal from countries that supply around 50% of the world's coal exports, have either stopped or been significantly limited.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')hina, the world's largest producer and consumer of coal, said late last month that it would halt exports in February and March after the country's worse snowstorms in 50 years disrupted output and caused unprecedented power shortages.

News of the stoppage in China was immediately followed by severe power shortages in South Africa, forcing miners including Anglo American to shut their mines.

Adding to a worsening global squeeze, several Australian producers last month declared force majeure on immediate coal shipments

So... Which is more likely to have increased world prices more, a increase in demand from countries, besides the US, switching from oil for electricity to coal for electricity, or supply cuts and problems from the countries that produce 50% of the world's coal? "Coal is going up because oil is going up." this may be the most ill thought out comment I have ever heard!

That being said, if you are right, then bringing the data to back it up shouldn't be too hard. Show me that worldwide, the price increase we've seen is primarily because of coal replacing oil for energy, and not due primarily due to yoy growth in coal use (excluding of course replacing oil for electricity) plus a significant drop in exports from those who are responsible for about half of the world's supply in this market.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')and as such I tend to be a bit skeptical of those who say it's so because they said so”,

This is definitely an aphorism! After viewing some of your comments above I’d say, “I would rather believe someone who engages their brain once in a while than someone who is relying on the Force”!Lets see here, in my initial post, I linked what I quoted here, about coal supplies dropping from countries that supply 50% of the world's coal exports, but in all the posts you've linked, there aren't any figures regarding how much coal is needed to replace oil via electricity, which you contend is what the price spike is from, and supposedly CTL, although at best it's a small fraction of oil produced now so I doubt that's significant yet. If in your opinion I'm relying on the "Force", then unfortunately for you, it seems your "Schwartz" isn't as big as mine!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: Another Record ($124.61)

Unread postby chris-h » Fri 09 May 2008, 04:08:40

124.68
88822-88822=0
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Re: Another Record ($124.61)

Unread postby hironegro » Fri 09 May 2008, 04:25:58

Survey says many oil and gas industry executives forecast falling crude prices by year's end$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')OUSTON (AP) -- Even as oil prices ascended to new highs of more than $124 a barrel this week, many oil and gas industry executives say they expect the price to fall significantly by year's end, a new survey shows.
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