[Pops]

I wanted to start a thread regarding the state of modern ag around the world and the situations and changes people here at PO.com see/read taking place.

We have more than one thread about the various causes, effects and proposed solutions but this thread is about the current state of affairs affecting our food supply from the PO perspective. Please, lets keep to the current state of affairs and not proposed solutions.

Ethanol incentives would be revised under the bill to encourage development of renewable fuels from cellulose, found in grasses, trees and crop residue. The tax credit for corn-based ethanol would be cut by 12 percent and a cellulosic ethanol credit of a dollar would be created.

There has been a big shift in food production in the last couple of years in the US. We here at PO talk about this and that but people with their lifes' work at stake have went out on a limb to buy land, equipment and invest in distilleries because of a War on Foreign Oil.

I think we are feeling the effects of subsidized ethanol consumption in our food prices but what I fear more is an abrupt cutting of the subsidies .

[SpringCreekFarm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')here has been a big shift in food production in the last couple of years in the US. We here at PO talk about this and that but people with their lifes' work at stake have went out on a limb to buy land, equipment and invest in distilleries because of a War on Foreign Oil.

I think we are feeling the effects of subsidized ethanol consumption in our food prices but what I fear more is an abrupt cutting of the subsidies .

[Colorado-Valley]

With a population growing at 75 million a year, it shouldn't be too long before corn farmers are getting $100 a bushel anyway just based on pure demand.

[The_Virginian]

The Government Giveth, and the Government taketh.

And no they don't really give hoot and holler.

The good news for farmers is that even W/O gov. Subsidies, they will get a lot more for that bushel than what was expected 10 years ago...

Now if deflation sets in then we are all in trouble...

till then commodities should rise in general...

[cat]

They may not need to pull the plug on the ethanol sub. - http://www.slate.com/id/2190878/?from=rss
With the price of corn going up and the price of fuel going up, it is a difficult business to be in right now. Energy/money invested is as much as the return or more.

[Fishman]

Aside from ethanol, your question was about changes people here at PO.com see/read taking place. I think history will give us some perspective. Not looking at solutions but problems faced. As we all know here diesel fuel drives the modern farm. I think there will be less tillage depending on cost of ag chemicals. Probably more crop rotation. Looking at the fields here in eastern NC folks are planting from fencepost to fencepost, sometimes actually planting up to the edge of the road.

[Ferretlover]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')Ethanol incentives would be revised under the bill to encourage development of renewable fuels from cellulose, found in grasses, trees and crop residue. I think we are feeling the effects of subsidized ethanol consumption in our food prices but what I fear more is an abrupt cutting of the subsidies .

[Heineken]

Big Ag must die off and replaced by small ag, 19th century style.

The essential shift that is taking place is that instead of producing food that is incredibly cheap and abundant, Big Ag will be producing food that is incredibly expensive, and with a supply and distribution system that is increasingly unreliable and uneven. Although I don't believe in straight-line extrapolations, it's easy to see how the current arrangement is headed for certain collapse.

Farming as we have it is all about giant machinery, herbicides, pesticides, chemical fertilizers, immense processing plants, refrigeration, and the trucking industry and its associated infrastructure. All almost completely dependent on oil and other fossil fuels.

It can't continue; but the changes that are needed in agriculture must be accompanied by a total revolution in how people live and work.

We need a world of small, walkable towns, surrounded by cottage industries, surrounded in turn by small farms run by people and not corporations, surrounded in turn by forest and wilderness. All connected by trains. I've been saying this for years, but we haven't moved one inch closer to that world, at least not in the US. Other than the ethanol craze, some windmills and solar panels, and greater awareness and application of various conservation measures, I don't see any revolution happening, Pops. The corn planters are getting greased up and ready to roll, just as always this time of year.

Like any other mega-business, Big Ag will resist REAL change with all the power and bucks at its disposal. Institutions don't let go, they are crushed by factors they eventually can no longer control.

[Pops]

Thanks for all the thoughtful replies, I've heard that the planting progress on corn is quite a bit behind right now because of all the wet weather.

The problem with corn planted late is it then matures in the dry hot season substantially reducing harvest since the ears don't fill out and even the kernels don't get as big.
----

This is a description of the boom in ag in the 1970's from this USDA report (PDF).
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ncreased farm income, rising inflation,
readily available credit, and low to negative
real interest rates led to sustained
increases in farmland values and in outlays
for farm machinery and equipment.
Because financial assets lose value with
inflation while real assets gain value, rising
inflation encourages investors to shift
their holdings from financial to real
assets. Such a shift exacerbates the loss
for financial assets but strengthens the
gain for real assets, including farmland.

[Heineken]

Just as an aside, in warmer, Japanese beetle zones, planting corn late may be the way to go (this applies to small-scale growers, not huge farms, of course). The idea is to push the silking period as late as possible, deep into August, when the beetle is on the wane. Otherwise the beetle eats the silk as fast as it grows and you get stunted ears.

[Pops]

BTW, to Henie's point, between 1970 and 1990 the number of farms decreased by over a half million and the average size increased by almost 70 acres.

If that is repeated again it is not at all what either of us are hoping.

http://inventors.about.com/library/inve ... lfarm4.htm

[Ludi]

I expect many more people will be getting out of farming these days.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'B')ig Ag must die off and replaced by small ag, 19th century style.

The essential shift that is taking place is that instead of producing food that is incredibly cheap and abundant, Big Ag will be producing food that is incredibly expensive, and with a supply and distribution system that is increasingly unreliable and uneven. Although I don't believe in straight-line extrapolations, it's easy to see how the current arrangement is headed for certain collapse.

Farming as we have it is all about giant machinery, herbicides, pesticides, chemical fertilizers, immense processing plants, refrigeration, and the trucking industry and its associated infrastructure. All almost completely dependent on oil and other fossil fuels.

[green_achers]

The rising commodity prices are causing a major increase in ag land prices and rents. The trend has already been toward larger holdings and absentee owners. You would think it would be easier for a small owner to make a living these days, but I guess the higher acreage values are just too high for a lot to resist.

It's interesting to look at the drop in residential land values and the pull-back in the building sector while ag land values are ballooning. This might be a tough time for those who have been thinking of unloading their suburban properties for that little hobby horse ranch, rural residential, peak-oil farmstead (pick your fantasy or distopia). Oops. Timing is everything.

[Pops]

Back in the 19th century there were large farms, hitches of twenty or 30 mules pulled harvesters over wheat fields in the northwest. There is no way to sustain anything near todays population or that of 50 years ago harvesting wheat with a sythe.

My Amish neighbor makes big round bales of hay with a baler pulled by two big Percherons and a little 10hp gas engine that powers the wrapper when the baler stops and the ground-drive can't function. But even that ignores the lessons learned about stockpiling graze for winter - the animals do the harvesting, manure spreading, weeding, etc. - no machinery required.

I guess I both agree and disagree with Heiney and Dude to this extent, the only option is for modern ag to evolve. If it dies outright, then so do we, if it doesn't become more local and less reliant on transport and begin to employ the many lessons learned the last 150 years we may get pretty slim and if it survives in anything like the current mode only through subsidies, rationing or other political action we are simply passing down the pain to our kids.

[fletch_961]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')Here is the situation that lead to the bust of the '80's:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')y the early 1980’s, many of the factors
that spurred the boom were reversing.
Commodity prices fell, input prices and
interest rates rose, export demand turned
down, and farm income declined. Many
farmers who had bought land or made
other long-term investments—especially
those who used debt financing—now had
difficulty meeting their other financial
obligations or even making a living.

[Pops]

I take your points fletch, but what is your conclusion about the ag response to PO going forward?

[fletch_961]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think we are feeling the effects of subsidized ethanol consumption in our food prices but what I fear more is an abrupt cutting of the subsidies .

[fletch_961]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I') take your points fletch, but what is your conclusion about the ag response to PO going forward?