[Newfie]

From Bloomberg News

http://www.philly.com/inquirer/business ... rices.html

"Chile's worst drought in five decades and power rationing in nations such as South Africa and China mean the price of aluminum, gold, copper and platinum will keep climbing as the lights go out in the world's biggest metals mines."

"Some examples of the production problems:

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world's biggest publicly traded copper producer; Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the largest in iron ore; and gold-producer Newmont Mining Corp. all say power shortages threaten to reduce future output.

Rio Tinto Group, the second-biggest producer of aluminum, cut production at its New Zealand smelter 5 percent, or 1,400 metric tons a month, on May 1 because of power constraints caused by drought.

Anglo Platinum Ltd., the world's biggest producer of that metal, said April 29 that first-quarter output plunged 24 percent to 428,600 ounces because of cuts in the supply of electricity to its South African mines.

Congo, the world's largest source of cobalt for batteries and jet engines, asked mining companies Friday to cut electricity use after power-transmission cables were stolen.

Credit Suisse Group, Switzerland's second-biggest bank by assets, raised its 2008 cobalt price forecast 50 percent to $45 a pound March 26 because of Congo's electricity shortages. The price was at $48.50 Friday, according to Metal Bulletin data."

[manu]

Have a nice die-off everyone, esp. those who work with monsanto.

[paimei01]

Thank you More love to those who do not work with Monsanto please, there are more of us

[frankthetank]

Locally, some assholes are stealing cans that people donate to the schools. The one case they took $300 worth to a school that was going to use it to build a garden.

Pretty soon they'll be tearing the fucking siding off of houses (AL/SS).

[shortonoil]

If anyone still believes that we are not in an energy crisis, that oil’s energy contribution is not declining precariously and that it is not going to get a lot worse, please take off the welding goggles you are wearing for sunglasses, pound out the concrete poured in your ears, and remove your head from your ass, the sand, or in some cases both.

[TreeFarmer]

People of dubious character and work ethic who were barely getting by before this run-up in prices are now stealing anything made of metal they can get their hands on. If you have a small scrap metal pile of pieces you might use to fix things around your farm you better move it to a hidden or better yet locked location.

If prices contimue to rise we are going to see some real third world behavior where anything that is not secured is stolen.

TF

[AirlinePilot]

A neighbor of mine had the catalytic converter literally sawed off his vehicle and carried away in a parking lot at work.

I guess there are some interesting metals inside those things.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'A') neighbor of mine had the catalytic converter literally sawed off his vehicle and carried away in a parking lot at work.

I guess there are some interesting metals inside those things.

[TheDude]

Regarding CCs:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he catalyst itself is most often a precious metal. Platinum is the most active catalyst and is widely used. However, it is not suitable for all applications because of unwanted additional reactions and/or cost. Palladium and rhodium are two other precious metals that are used. Platinum and rhodium are used as a reduction catalyst, while platinum and palladium are used as an oxidization catalyst. Cerium, iron, manganese and nickel are also used, though each has its own limitations. Nickel is not legal for use in the European Union (due to reaction with carbon monoxide). While copper can be used, its use is illegal in North America due to the formation of dioxin.

[IanC]

There have been some brazen thefts of bronze statues reported all over the northwest where we have a huge Meth problem. In one case, 2 statues worth about $30,000 were sawed off at the ankles and sold for scrap. Copper light fittings on streetlights are stolen all the time. Oh, yeah, don't forget all the wiring stolen out of all the foreclosed homes in suburbia.

Things are going to get a lot worse. I can't decide if I'm more worried about the thieves or the public over-reacting and building-up a police state to "solve" the problem.

-Ian
Portland

[Newfie]

While interesting the theft of metals is old hat. 30+ years ago, the first two assignments I had on the railroad were dealing with the aftermath of copper or lead theft. There were times when my job was to burn holes in manhole covers so we could lock them down. They made good mud anchors for moorings.

What IS interesting in the article is that it points to a SYSTEMIC COLLAPSE. You have to dig a little to follow the fuzzy dots. Metals prices are rising in the face of lessing demand due to a Western recession. That is not the normal economic model. So something else is going on here. That something is Peak Oil.

Western recession due (in part) to increasing oil price. Output falls which should reduce demand and hence price.

BUT increasing price of oil causes economic hardships AND greater cost of energy. High cost energy drives up price of metal. Locals get squeezed and start scavenging the system due to their recession and high value of metal. This reduces system reliability which makes metal more scarce which drives up price. This worsens economy making locals more desperate who will scavenge more leading to less reliable systems driving up price further.

This, I believe, represents a Closely Coupled system in negative feedback. Unless the loop can be broken it can lead to sudden and catastrophic system failures. These types of failures are characterized as rare and devastating and inevitable.

The question is simply: Can the feedback paths be broken?

I have no idea if this metals trend is sufficiently significant to take down our over-alll system. It is both interesting and worthy of concern. It is illustrative of how seemingly unrelated events can turn on themselves in unexpected ways.

[Jupidu]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f anyone still believes that we are not in an energy crisis, that oil’s energy contribution is not declining precariously and that it is not going to get a lot worse,

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jupidu', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f anyone still believes that we are not in an energy crisis, that oil’s energy contribution is not declining precariously and that it is not going to get a lot worse,

[shortonoil]

Newfie said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') thought just struck me about defining Peak Oil. Rather than looking at total raw production or the cost per bbl of oil look at annual (monthly?) production per person (total human population) as in:

barrels/year/person

Has anyone ever plotted that curve or something similar?

[smallpoxgirl]

There were a couple of guys out in Montana recently that were caught digging up the ground wires from electrical substations. The thing that really struck me was that they were doing something like $10,000 worth of damage to get $45 in scap wire. That was an aspect of the metal theft issue I hadn't really contemplated...that the economic damage from it could be several hundred fold of the actual material loss.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', 'T')hat was an aspect of the metal theft issue I hadn't really contemplated...that the economic damage from it could be several hundred fold of the actual material loss.

[Newfie]

Short,

Thanks for the graph, interesting.

Then there is the news piece about coal in short supply at India's "thermal" plants. I guess that means electric? Not sure.



Coal situation worsens at thermal stations

Chinese demand eating into imports


Anil Sasi
Advertisement

New Delhi, May 8 Coal reserves at power stations have hit a record low.

Nearly a third of the country’s thermal stations are now reported to be facing “critical stocks”, where coal stocks are expected to last less than seven days.

Of the 77 thermal stations in the country, 25 have now been bracketed as having “critical stocks”, of which 13 are reported to be “super critical”, with precariously low levels of coal stocks of under four days, according to the Government’s latest data on coal stock positions at power stations (up to May 5).

While a coal shortage has been brewing since the beginning of last year, domestic production is unlikely to be ramped up significantly in the near future. The import option is increasingly getting tougher as China, which is also facing low domestic reserves and acute power shortage, has stepped up coal purchases internationally.
Global price rising

The resultant rise in the global spot prices of coal, which have shot up to over $140 per tonne in Australia and above $125 per tonne in South Africa, could further stymie plans by Indian utilities to use imported coal to tide over shortages.

NTPC, which has 15 coal-fired stations, has already reported loss of generation in four stations due to coal shortages last fiscal, with the Farakka’s plant load factor dipping 4.66 per cent, and Kahalgaon, Talcher and Vindhyachal stations reporting partial outages.
Import plan

“We are currently managing on a day-to-day basis at some stations. A decision has already been taken to double imports to 5 million tonnes in 2008-09,” an NTPC official said.

Stations currently facing “super-critical” stocks include a number of super-thermal stations, including NTPC’s Ramagundam, Kahalgaon and Farakka stations.

Lower coal production by Coal India Ltd, higher than anticipated power generation at some stations and unloading constraints at others, combined with lower imports, have compounded the problem further.

Thermal stations are normally expected to hold coal stocks of between 15 and 30 days, with pithead stations expected to have stocks of 15 days or more, while others are expected to have stocks of 21-30 days.

Related Stories:

[idiom]

If you are into metal for scrap theft, then the Statue of liberty has to be mighty tempting.

[Ferretlover]

A house down the street from me has bright shiny copper caps on each of the wooden posts of its backyard fence.
I always check to see if they are still there when I do an errand.

[idiom]

Which reminds me, why don't you guys ever polish that thing? It's not supposed to be green. It's Copper! Is meant to be shiny.]

Maybe New York just prefers the colour of money?