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Peak Oil: Psychological? Political? Physical?

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Peak Oil: Psychological? Political? Physical?

Unread postby charliebrownout » Tue 06 May 2008, 15:52:42

I've been reading more and more from both sides of the Peak Oil argument and the question that comes to my mind is: what kind of problem is Peak Oil?

I see a consensus in the material which I've read that it IS a problem. So, the next logical step, for me, is what KIND of problem is it?

Q: Can people figure out a way to harness energy other than through the use of fossil fuel?

My Answer: Yes, people are very creative, with enough will it could be achieved. So, is it really a physical problem? Is it a wall we HAVE to hit? It doesn't seem like it is to me.

So, that, in my mind, leaves the problem to the realm of psychology and political will. We can fix it. We just don't seem to want to fix it(by we I mean the TPTB).

It seems like this oil problem really plays well for rich folks and really screws poor folks. It is like some kind of beautiful gift for the uber-rich. It's like an industrial strength can of Raid for their human cockroach problem. Isn't it?

After more time looking at the problem (kind of like staring, cross-eyed at one of those Magic Eye paintings) I feel like I'm being set up. I feel like we're all, in one way or the other, being set up.

So, what do you think the REAL problem of Peak Oil is?
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Re: Peak Oil: Psychological? Political? Physical?

Unread postby vision-master » Tue 06 May 2008, 16:06:25

denial
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Re: Peak Oil: Psychological? Political? Physical?

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 06 May 2008, 16:13:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('charliebrownout', '
')So, what do you think the REAL problem of Peak Oil is?


Refusal to live within a finite world

aka "denial"
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Re: Peak Oil: Psychological? Political? Physical?

Unread postby charliebrownout » Tue 06 May 2008, 16:20:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('charliebrownout', '
')So, what do you think the REAL problem of Peak Oil is?


Refusal to live within a finite world

aka "denial"


I can see that for the masses, but for the super rich/powerful? I'm not so sure.
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Re: Peak Oil: Psychological? Political? Physical?

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 06 May 2008, 16:27:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('charliebrownout', '
')I can see that for the masses, but for the super rich/powerful? I'm not so sure.


Do you think the super rich/powerful are just fine and ready to live within the constraints of a finite world?

To me, they seem like those least likely to be willing to admit there are limits.
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Re: Peak Oil: Psychological? Political? Physical?

Unread postby charliebrownout » Tue 06 May 2008, 16:39:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('charliebrownout', '
')I can see that for the masses, but for the super rich/powerful? I'm not so sure.


Do you think the super rich/powerful are just fine and ready to live within the constraints of a finite world?

To me, they seem like those least likely to be willing to admit there are limits.


True enough, but I think if they had an inkling anything was finite they'd make sure to screw everyone else and pad their own life boat as a response. I just don't see them getting launched off the cliff with everyone else. (No matter how much I'd like to picture it.)
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Re: Peak Oil: Psychological? Political? Physical?

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 06 May 2008, 16:42:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('charliebrownout', '
')True enough, but I think if they had an inkling anything was finite they'd make sure to screw everyone else and pad their own life boat as a response. I just don't see them getting launched off the cliff with everyone else. (No matter how much I'd like to picture it.)


Oh they are definitely currently in the process of screwing everyone else (see war in Iraq). They will have the comfiest lifeboats. They may even live out their lives in luxury.
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Re: Peak Oil: Psychological? Political? Physical?

Unread postby Pops » Tue 06 May 2008, 17:06:58

To my little brain it has nothing to do with current measures of "wealth"or politics in the long term.

It is about too many people eating long gone fossils about to go extinct - again.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Peak Oil: Psychological? Political? Physical?

Unread postby NeoPeasant » Tue 06 May 2008, 17:19:32

Affluenza.
People have come to be convinced that they absolutely need a bewildering variety of energy intensive things when all they REALLY need is shoes and a coat and some food and something to get under when it rains. If you are not freezing or starving to death, whether you are happy or not is purely psychological.
The battle to preserve our lifestyle has already been lost. The battle to preserve our lives is just beginning.
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Re: Peak Oil: Psychological? Political? Physical?

Unread postby threadbear » Tue 06 May 2008, 17:20:44

The dollar is more or less backed by petroleum. If that system collapses because petroleum falls out of favour, the American dollar falls WAY out of favour, ultimately losing reserve status and even more of it's value. The book PetroDollar, by William Clarke explains much of this. There could be a financial systemic meltdown, global in reach. This is what those in power are trying to avoid.

Geological constraints are a part of the big picture, but may not be the biggest part.

Greg Palast has interesting thoughts on all of this.
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Re: Peak Oil: Psychological? Political? Physical?

Unread postby mefistofeles » Tue 06 May 2008, 17:27:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t seems like this oil problem really plays well for rich folks and really screws poor folks. It is like some kind of beautiful gift for the uber-rich. It's like an industrial strength can of Raid for their human cockroach problem. Isn't it?


I would disagree on that count. I think peak oil will help farmers and people who engage in small scale manufacturing.

The highest paying jobs today tend to be doctors and lawyers. Why, because these professions have benefitted the least from advancedments in technology and productivity. In other words a doctor can't treat more patients today than he could 100 years ago likewise the same is probably true with a lawyer.

Manufacturing on the other hand has benefitted immensely from the energy provided by oil as had food production via mechanization and fertilizers.

Well what happens during peak oil far less energy is going to be available for agriculture and manufacturing? Manufactured goods are going to be very scarce. Things like shoe repair are actually going to make a big come back because it won't be possible to simply throw away a pair of shoes when they become too old.

Manufacturing will become much more expensive and probably far more labor intensive. The actual labor input costs will go up tremendously.

I think many rich people will be hurt because people who owns things such as malls and factories could be totally SOL.

Granted being rich will give you more options than being poor but I feel that having physical resources or skills in hand will be worth alot more when peak oil hits than "money".

Peak oil will in effect be a revolution than changes the balance of power within societies and between nations. Land owners and small manufacturers will be the main beneficiaries , at least the ones that I see.
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Re: Peak Oil: Psychological? Political? Physical?

Unread postby threadbear » Tue 06 May 2008, 17:28:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')o my little brain it has nothing to do with current measures of "wealth"or politics in the long term.

It is about too many people eating long gone fossils about to go extinct - again.


This could be true. The idea that oil will continue to rise is a popular sentiment. Large investors, pick popular sentiments, like horses at a racetrack, and ride them until just before sentiment changes or fundamentals change. Is the race rigged? Could it be rigged? Sure it can. Is peak oil a reality? Yes. Could both be happening simultaneously? Of course.
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Re: Peak Oil: Psychological? Political? Physical?

Unread postby Pops » Tue 06 May 2008, 17:34:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')Could both be happening simultaneously? Of course.

I agree.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Peak Oil: Psychological? Political? Physical?

Unread postby mos6507 » Tue 06 May 2008, 17:42:32

It's a problem if the global population is in overshoot because we convert oil into food, and that without the oil, we will have such a pronounced food shortage that there is a die-off. People get all smug and talk about chomping on popcorn and watching peak oil play out as if they are merely observers to OTHER people's suffering, but we will ALL get pulled down together. We just don't know yet how deep the pain will be or how broadly distributed.
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Re: Peak Oil: Psychological? Political? Physical?

Unread postby Pops » Tue 06 May 2008, 17:50:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'P')eople get all smug and talk about chomping on popcorn ...

I think they are either whistling or wishing.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Peak Oil: Psychological? Political? Physical?

Unread postby charliebrownout » Tue 06 May 2008, 18:08:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')Could both be happening simultaneously? Of course.

I agree.


That's all I'm getting at. I just can't shake the feeling that the problem is much more dynamic, meaning, it is BOTH.
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Re: Peak Oil: Psychological? Political? Physical?

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 06 May 2008, 18:11:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('charliebrownout', '
')That's all I'm getting at. I just can't shake the feeling that the problem is much more dynamic, meaning, it is BOTH.


Does that change your own response to it at all, I mean, are your plans and actions different if there is more than one cause?
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Re: Peak Oil: Psychological? Political? Physical?

Unread postby charliebrownout » Tue 06 May 2008, 18:12:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mefistofeles', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t seems like this oil problem really plays well for rich folks and really screws poor folks. It is like some kind of beautiful gift for the uber-rich. It's like an industrial strength can of Raid for their human cockroach problem. Isn't it?


I would disagree on that count. I think peak oil will help farmers and people who engage in small scale manufacturing.

The highest paying jobs today tend to be doctors and lawyers. Why, because these professions have benefitted the least from advancedments in technology and productivity. In other words a doctor can't treat more patients today than he could 100 years ago likewise the same is probably true with a lawyer.

Manufacturing on the other hand has benefitted immensely from the energy provided by oil as had food production via mechanization and fertilizers.

Well what happens during peak oil far less energy is going to be available for agriculture and manufacturing? Manufactured goods are going to be very scarce. Things like shoe repair are actually going to make a big come back because it won't be possible to simply throw away a pair of shoes when they become too old.

Manufacturing will become much more expensive and probably far more labor intensive. The actual labor input costs will go up tremendously.

I think many rich people will be hurt because people who owns things such as malls and factories could be totally SOL.

Granted being rich will give you more options than being poor but I feel that having physical resources or skills in hand will be worth alot more when peak oil hits than "money".

Peak oil will in effect be a revolution than changes the balance of power within societies and between nations. Land owners and small manufacturers will be the main beneficiaries , at least the ones that I see.


That would be nice: a Biblical world turned over to peace and ploughshares. It would be a good thing, if that were the case.

I just don't see anyone who has ever aspired to any sort of power giving up that easily or letting themselves go over the proverbial cliff. Nope, can't picture it.

Death may be the great equalizer, but I don't think Peak Oil will be--even if it brings with it copious amounts of death.
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Re: Peak Oil: Psychological? Political? Physical?

Unread postby americandream » Tue 06 May 2008, 18:16:12

I'm flabbergasted that at $120 a barrell, we're still asking the question, "Has peak arrived".
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Re: Peak Oil: Psychological? Political? Physical?

Unread postby charliebrownout » Tue 06 May 2008, 18:27:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('charliebrownout', '
')That's all I'm getting at. I just can't shake the feeling that the problem is much more dynamic, meaning, it is BOTH.


Does that change your own response to it at all, I mean, are your plans and actions different if there is more than one cause?


No, of course not. I'm not arguing against Peak Oil at all. I'm not even anti-Doomer. I'm just trying to get a handle on the full picture out of my own curiosity. No offense intended--if there was any.

Peak Oil effects are obviously hitting--manipulated by power or not.

My gut reaction is that if it is just a supply problem we're screwed, if it is a supply problem exacerbated by the selfish interests powerful entities we're super-screwed.

It's kind of like seeing the four horsemen of the apocalypse riding up and then, as they get closer, realizing there aren't just four but a whole freaking cavalry of equally bad horsemen headed your way.

Don't get me wrong: My "ohfuckometer" is still engaged.
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