by fletch_961 » Mon 05 May 2008, 18:42:47
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat is the approximate lag time before $120 oil rears its head in the refining department? I know that refining margins have been fairly thin, but they are bound to start losing money with their feedstock cost doubled and their retail prices only up 20%.
What gives?
I wouldn't worry about the the refineries losing money. The lag is part of the reason for the difference, so ar the thinner margins.
But keep in mind refineries sell at wholesale, not retail. Once you strip out out taxes and other down stream addition I'm guessing you'll find whole sale prices are up closer to 35%.
And the 94% increase in feedstock cost - well feedstock is only one of their costs. Labor, depreciation, capital costs and such will only have increased marginally. When you put all their costs together you are probably looking at a 50% increase in total costs
So their costs are up 50% their selling price up 35% - and the recent cost increases not all factor in - gives you tighter margins. They find ways to make sure they don't go in the red. If it means a few shut down for some long over due maintence or what ever to improve the supply/demand picture in their favor......- they'll be fine.