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US traffic falls 7.5% in 2008

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US traffic falls 7.5% in 2008

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 23 Apr 2008, 19:28:13

Traffic in the US fell 1.4% in 2007 and 7.5% in 2008(through March). This contrasts with the average of at least 2% growth in traffic for the last 20 years.

Also, SUV sales are down 27%, pickups down 14%. Auto's overall were down 8%.

Public transportation hit an all time high in 2007.

It seems some lifestyle changes for the better are finally starting to happen in the US.
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Re: US traffic falls 7.5% in 2008

Unread postby frankthetank » Wed 23 Apr 2008, 19:34:04

Usage is still up, just not climbing as quickly. Whatever happens i'm sure China/India/whoever will pick up the slack. When people have no jobs/money, they won't need to drive at all.

Game over.
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Re: US traffic falls 7.5% in 2008

Unread postby joeltrout » Wed 23 Apr 2008, 19:36:27

I am happy to say I am part of the reduction in consumption.

Thankfully our offices moved out of downtown LA which was a 1 hour plus commute on the freeway from my house.

Now our office is 4 miles from my house and only a 15 min commute on surface streets. If I had to I could easily bike to work. I am just too lazy right now.

If possible, I encourage everyone to live close to work.

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Re: US traffic falls 7.5% in 2008

Unread postby MD » Wed 23 Apr 2008, 19:40:00

Bottom is still a very long way off.

Pray for a gentle slope.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
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Re: US traffic falls 7.5% in 2008

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 23 Apr 2008, 19:46:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'U')sage is still up, just not climbing as quickly.
Game over.
Global usage is up, but US usage is down:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or the first quarter, U.S. oil demand fell 1.4 percent from a year earlier, marking the third quarter in a row with year-to-year declines in oil consumption, the API said.
Petroleum product imports declined 21.4 percent to 2.786 million bpd, their lowest level since April 2004, the API said.

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Re: US traffic falls 7.5% in 2008

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Wed 23 Apr 2008, 20:42:46

Does this surprise anyone?

People respond to prices. $3.50 gasoline makes people a bit more inclined to conserve.

Just wait till we see the big 5 at the gas stations.

I expect to see fewer SUVs and a lot more compact cars this summer. They recently built a brand new Smart Car dealership a few miles away. :)

People aren't going to sit in their driveways and starve to death. They'll ditch the gas guzzler and switch into something a little more economical.
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Re: US traffic falls 7.5% in 2008

Unread postby SILENTTODD » Wed 23 Apr 2008, 21:28:52

In the last 2 months I've noticed a significant drop in traffic Saturday afternoons on 91 Freeway out of Orange County California to Riverside, which is one of the most congested highways in Southern California.

For about the last 8 years, traffic on Saturday afternoon was as bad as the Monday thru Friday commuter traffic (I live 2miles from work, I don't do that). Now it's almost like it was about 12 years ago, traffic flowing at highway speeds and noticeably less cars. Friends at work say the drive has been much easier in the last several months.

I believe this is being caused by the sharp down turn in the economy and the equally sharp upturn in the gas prices. Premium gas (Super) in Orange County is already over $4 a gallon with the other grades closing in fast.
Last edited by SILENTTODD on Thu 24 Apr 2008, 03:16:26, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: US traffic falls 7.5% in 2008

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 23 Apr 2008, 21:44:26

L I had a good laugh on the way home tonight, my local Speedway was slow to catch on when everyone else spiked prices yesterday. Tonight they had the higher price to match the nearsest stations but the pumps were bagged because they ran out of gas!
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Re: US traffic falls 7.5% in 2008

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 23 Apr 2008, 22:39:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')asoline demand in March increased by 115,000 bpd, or 1.2 percent, to 9.284 million bpd, despite record pump prices.


That's from the same article linked above. Just because imports of oil are down does not mean that usage is down.
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Re: US traffic falls 7.5% in 2008

Unread postby Eli » Wed 23 Apr 2008, 23:04:43

And we burned a quarter of our corn crop in our gas tanks last year and are planing to burn a third of it next year, we're fucked.
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Re: US traffic falls 7.5% in 2008

Unread postby frankthetank » Wed 23 Apr 2008, 23:17:47

Come on... We are doomed. The head story on MSNBC right now is limiting of rice at Costco and Sams Club. Come on doomers... this is the shit we been talking about for years. ITS HERE :)

I haven't noticed ANY change in traffic patterns here in southwest WI. Maybe more people are driving less miles. The population continues to grow.
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Re: US traffic falls 7.5% in 2008

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 24 Apr 2008, 00:18:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoghGoner', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')asoline demand in March increased by 115,000 bpd, or 1.2 percent, to 9.284 million bpd, despite record pump prices.

That's from the same article linked above. Just because imports of oil are down does not mean that usage is down.
And you conveniently left out the explanation for that: early easter/spring break and more ethanol blended gasoline. Ethanol blended gasoline has around a 5% deficiency in MPG compared to MTBE blended gasoline(I don't even want to get into the discussion of how ethanol evaporates faster than gasoline). So even if the driving usage was exactly the same, we would expect to see at least a 5% increase in gasoline just from the switch from MTBE blend to ethanol blend. Also, I detest looking at small data sets like 1 month of data. It is more meaningful to look at data sets as large as possible. That way you don't have to worry about factoring in what day easter falls on this year and other minutia.
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Re: US traffic falls 7.5% in 2008

Unread postby Peepers » Thu 24 Apr 2008, 00:54:33

I've certainly noticed some changes in traffic... The trains here in Cleveland are much busier, and we didn't have a very busy rail system to begin with. Even during midday and evening hours, the trains are pretty busy with more passengers, and so are the buses. The station in my neighborhood, at West 117th, had a dozen people waiting on the platform at 9 p.m. tonight when usually there's only 2 or 3 people waiting at that time. It's an upside to the SHTF.
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Re: US traffic falls 7.5% in 2008

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 24 Apr 2008, 01:33:38

Every day, I walk or bike over one of the busiest sections of interstate highway in the upper midwest (94 near downtown Minneapolis) and I can't notice any decrease--its always near or at standstill at rush hour, and faster usually at other times.
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Re: US traffic falls 7.5% in 2008

Unread postby MattSavinar » Thu 24 Apr 2008, 02:40:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', 'I') am happy to say I am part of the reduction in consumption.

Thankfully our offices moved out of downtown LA which was a 1 hour plus commute on the freeway from my house.

Now our office is 4 miles from my house and only a 15 min commute on surface streets. If I had to I could easily bike to work. I am just too lazy right now.

If possible, I encourage everyone to live close to work.

joeltrout


I can't help but laugh when somebody says 4 miles and 15 minutes by car is "close." Try walking it bubba! That will give you a much better appreciation of what life in L.A. will be like when the oil deliveries get intermittant.
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Re: US traffic falls 7.5% in 2008

Unread postby aflurry » Thu 24 Apr 2008, 03:23:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', 'I') am happy to say I am part of the reduction in consumption.

Thankfully our offices moved out of downtown LA which was a 1 hour plus commute on the freeway from my house.

Now our office is 4 miles from my house and only a 15 min commute on surface streets. If I had to I could easily bike to work. I am just too lazy right now.

If possible, I encourage everyone to live close to work.

joeltrout


I can't help but laugh when somebody says 4 miles and 15 minutes by car is "close." Try walking it bubba! That will give you a much better appreciation of what life in L.A. will be like when the oil deliveries get intermittant.


get a bike, matt. 4 miles is cake.
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Re: US traffic falls 7.5% in 2008

Unread postby jato » Thu 24 Apr 2008, 04:08:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey'll ditch the gas guzzler and switch into something a little more economical.


Just like when I was a kid in the 70s & 80s, the poor people will buy and drive the used gas-guzzlers. Cheap to purchase, but expensive to fill up.

I have noticed the Mexican immigrants used to always drive 10 to 20 year old cars. Just recently (past couple of years) they started driving big, new, expensive SUVs obtained with their new homeowner status thanks to liar loans. I suspect they will be back to the old cars soon enough.

Those immigrants can sure out car-pool the best hippies.
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Re: US traffic falls 7.5% in 2008

Unread postby TheDude » Thu 24 Apr 2008, 04:35:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'S')o even if the driving usage was exactly the same, we would expect to see at least a 5% increase in gasoline just from the switch from MTBE blend to ethanol blend.


How complete is the switchover? The EPA's list of states in which there are bans on MTBE (PDF) shows that all states and territories have banned MTBE outright, or limited it, generally to .5%, 'cept the thoroughly toxic inhabitants of the Garden State, who have a year to go. Pain in the ass to find that doc, too, EIA is chock full of pages that were last updated in 2003. Someone at TOD linked to a handy doc on the subject; goes for the low low price of $5K.

Many states aren't banning the use of other oxygenates - wonder what the mix is these days. Ethanol will give us more smog, too. Time has reversed. What's next, disco makes a comeback? Image
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Re: US traffic falls 7.5% in 2008

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 24 Apr 2008, 06:03:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'H')ow complete is the switchover? The EPA's list of states in which there are bans on MTBE (PDF) shows that all states and territories have banned MTBE outright, or limited it, generally to .5%, 'cept the thoroughly toxic inhabitants of the Garden State, who have a year to go. Pain in the ass to find that doc, too, EIA is chock full of pages that were last updated in 2003. Someone at TOD linked to a handy doc on the subject; goes for the low low price of $5K.
Many states aren't banning the use of other oxygenates - wonder what the mix is these days. Ethanol will give us more smog, too. Time has reversed. What's next, disco makes a comeback? Image

Dunno exactly, 5K for a doc is a wee bit out of my price range :) In 2007, Ethanol accounted for 4% of gasoline. The EPA will probably push refiners to up that to at least 7.5% in 2008.
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Re: US traffic falls 7.5% in 2008

Unread postby aahala2 » Thu 24 Apr 2008, 11:25:46

kublikhan

I take it you work for the US media.

The title for the thread says "US traffic falls 7.5" but that isn't
at all what the article states. It says that traffic declined perhaps
7.5% in a particular county, the percentage of decline in the US
by EIA projection was stated as .3%. And that's gas consumption,
not traffic.
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