[BigTex]

Don't mistake the normal seven year cycle of people feeling crappy for a while for the beginning of the end.

I get a doomer boner about every seven years. I had it in 1994, 2001 and I'm pretty worked up right now.

But the economic boom/bust thing is a CYCLE, and we are in the bust phase right now.

The question is whether there are actually two things happening right now--(1) a normal recession following 6-7 years of growth and a spike in the price of oil, PLUS (2) the beginning of some fundamental changes in our way of life that will continue for decades and gradually deteriorate.

We can say "hell yeah both things are happening right now", but we don't really know.

The thing that will tell us A LOT will be the peak of the economic recovery (assuming a recovery occurs, and I think it will). The peak of the expansion following this downturn is, I suspect, going to be a little less robust, and THAT will give us a good sense of where we are on any long term peak oil-driven economic decline.

Going forward, I am picturing something similar to past economic cycles, except inverted--seven years or so of decline, followed by one to two years of expansion.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', ' ')Gonna go...

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')I get a doomer boner about every seven years.

[RedStateGreen]

I've been feeling the same way too, alokin. It's not just you.

I got to meet Shanny a few weeks ago and it was nice to meet someone else who I could actually talk to in RL about this stuff.

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')I get a doomer boner about every seven years.

[CarlinsDarlin]

My mood has certainly changed. I've been ramping up (read, spending more money and time) on preps than I have in a while. Of course we've been prepping for a long time, but I'll never be satisfied that it's enough. And, happily, Carlin isn't griping about all the stuff I'm doing and buying. He finally has accepted the seriousness of the situation. Besides the 1500 gallon water tank I'm buying, I have a shopping list for Sam's tomorrow, and I've ordered a ton of alfalfa pellets for my goats - should last almost a year. I want them to be prepared, too .

My brother, finally, is getting it. Has gotten it, I should say. For years I've been trying to convince him about peak oil, and he's finally gotten it. He's going shopping with me tomorrow to stock up. He's investigating solar and wind for his house. He's ordered food grade barrels for storing what he calls his "doomer food." He's looking at installing a large storm shelter/bunker/root cellar in the yard. And right now my sister-in-law is going crazy lol. I told her he's still in the O...M...G phase. He'll settle down soon enough. But I am SO glad he's finally on board, no matter why.

Many people I've talked to recently are far more open to the kind of talk we've had here for years. Instead of just smiling and ignoring me, or trying to convince me how wrong I am, they have actually listened. I don't know how many are actually doing yet, but they are moving in that direction.

Yes, something has changed.

Kathy

[JoeW]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')
Joe, Do you mind if I inquire as to your location and the preps that you have managed up to this point?

[catbox]

Yesterday, while commuting to work, a guy stops his car and motions me to stop....people tend to ask cyclists for directions....my street smarts told me this guy was ok....so I stopped. The fella just had his MacBook ripped off and was handing out flyers to anyone that would takem. Big reward
and all, and he wanted directions to the Mission to hand out more flyers.
Before we parted ways, he looked me square in the eye and said, "It's getting bad! Are you ready for the depression"? In my mind, I was like WOW...this guy gets it...another human who is on the same wave as myself! We talked for what was a brief moment but made a connection.
His parting words kind of took me back for a moment...he mentioned again how it's getting bad enough for him to buy a gun. I could see where he was coming from, things had changed for this guy.
Overall, it was an interesting exchange.
Off to work I went.........
I have tried to slow down my PO and economy talk at work. Where I thought some folks were jumping on board...they are continuing to amaze me with a great sleep walking act, and one thing that has been driving me nuts....how everyone complains about being so broke, but continues to shop and drink up what money they do have. Working for an online retailer, I am getting sick of product and consumption!
But...it's 15 minutes from my home and they allow me to work as little or as much as I want...4 hours a day is fine!

Things are changing...but oh how they remain the same!

catbox

[Pretorian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I')'ve been waiting for the demise of capitalism, hoping I suppose that I might outlive it.

As a Marxist, it is self evident that a system based around the wasteful use of common resources is doomed to regress us back to a brutal age in due course due to depletion.

However, given the current corporate acculturated climate, I suspect that the slide out of civilisation will be protracted but the drop into barbarism will be swift and brutal.

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I')'ve been waiting for the demise of capitalism, hoping I suppose that I might outlive it.

As a Marxist, it is self evident that a system based around the wasteful use of common resources is doomed to regress us back to a brutal age in due course due to depletion.

However, given the current corporate acculturated climate, I suspect that the slide out of civilisation will be protracted but the drop into barbarism will be swift and brutal.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')I get a doomer boner about every seven years.

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')I get a doomer boner about every seven years.

[rdberg1957]

Yes, something has changed. I met for dinner last Sunday with my mother and my older cousin. He is a public utilities regulatory consultant. My cousin and I had a not so optimistic conversation about the future of humanity. He was not so peak oil savvy, but knew about energy issues in general. Population, water, climate change were enough to keep us in a doomer mode, which my 83 year old mother found somewhat uncomfortable, although she is distributing copies of Lester Brown's book.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I')'ve been waiting for the demise of capitalism, hoping I suppose that I might outlive it.

As a Marxist, it is self evident that a system based around the wasteful use of common resources is doomed to regress us back to a brutal age in due course due to depletion.

However, given the current corporate acculturated climate, I suspect that the slide out of civilisation will be protracted but the drop into barbarism will be swift and brutal.

[Judgie]

In early 2007 I went with my parents when they picked up their brand new V8 Holden SS, and made the comment that they were likely getting into what was a member of the last generation of V8 cars to be produced. They told me I was being pessimistic and idiotic, and drove the thing everywhere for the next year. In the last few months, that car has only left the driveway perhaps twice a week max, while the 1.5 liter buzz-box goes everywhere.....

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I')'ve been waiting for the demise of capitalism, hoping I suppose that I might outlive it.

As a Marxist, it is self evident that a system based around the wasteful use of common resources is doomed to regress us back to a brutal age in due course due to depletion.

However, given the current corporate acculturated climate, I suspect that the slide out of civilisation will be protracted but the drop into barbarism will be swift and brutal.

[jlw61]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I')'ve been waiting for the demise of capitalism, hoping I suppose that I might outlive it.

As a Marxist, it is self evident that a system based around the wasteful use of common resources is doomed to regress us back to a brutal age in due course due to depletion.

However, given the current corporate acculturated climate, I suspect that the slide out of civilisation will be protracted but the drop into barbarism will be swift and brutal.

[vision-master]

One thing about Libertarianism, there is no tolerance for differences of opinion. Libertarianism talks about freedom, but in reality is another political philosophy (smoke and mirrors) for a fascist state.

[jlw61]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'O')ne thing about Libertarianism, there is no tolerance for differences of opinion. Libertarianism talks about freedom, but in reality is another political philosophy (smoke and mirrors) for a fascist state.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jlw61', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'O')ne thing about Libertarianism, there is no tolerance for differences of opinion. Libertarianism talks about freedom, but in reality is another political philosophy (smoke and mirrors) for a fascist state.