[rockdoc123]

Seahorse, just an interesting piece of information I came across yesterday is that in WoodMackenzie's analysis of BG's worldwide holdings they are suggesting that first production from Tupi won't be reached until 2015 and peak not until 2017. So my guesstimate for this new one wasn't too much out to lunch.

[seahorse2]

Yes Rockdoc, I meant to thank you for that info. The time and expense in getting oil in the ground is always a dose of realism that people have to take into consideration when these new "finds" are made. There is an interesting article on the Bakken posted today at Energy Bulletin saying essentially the same thing you have said about the time required to bring the Brazil find online. It will take at least another five years to get to maximum production out of the Bakken and will probably produce around 100kbpd as a best guestimate. It compared the Bakken to Thunderhorse, which is expected to produce about 250k per day, when and if it gets up running. Thunderhorse is just another dose of production realism, that getting oil out of the ground is never easy and nothing is guaranteed. It shows that with Brazil and Bakken, 5 years to first oil production has a lot of built in assumptions and may be too optimistic.

In the end, peak oil for me has become an issue of production. The world doesn't need oil reserves, it needs oil produced. Getting oil out of the ground is becoming more and more difficult not only with the increasing difficulty of the geology involved, but with the increasing difficulty of politics and now, peak finances.

It seems clear the end of cheap energy is over. Its just very expensive and lots of risk getting oil out of the ground these days. What I don't know is what is the financial breaking point for society? It seems that at some point, energy may become more expensive than society can bear. I'm not sure, but its a consideration.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'S')o your whole case is based upon some possible interpretation of one comment?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'O')ilfinder,

When do you believe oil production will start in this new area?

What do you believe the recoverable reserves will be in this area?

What do you believe will be the maximum rate of production and when?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 'S')eahorse, just an interesting piece of information I came across yesterday is that in WoodMackenzie's analysis of BG's worldwide holdings they are suggesting that first production from Tupi won't be reached until 2015 and peak not until 2017. So my guesstimate for this new one wasn't too much out to lunch.

[seahorse2]

OF,

Thanks for the info. However, I would question the assumptions in the article you linked:

(1) It says they will be able to find enough oil to transition "us" to other forms of energy. I question this for several reasons. First, it doesn't specify what these other forms of energy will be, and every forecast I have read from any source says that oil will continue to provide most of the world's energy needs for the forseeable future, even out to 2030, that nothing is on the horizon that can substitute for oil. So, it will be more than a 1-2 year transition period off of oil.

Second, to believe they may be able to start pumping in 2009 may be too optimistic. Again, Thunderhorse delays should provide some realism into these estimates. Its been delayed now for 3 years.

Third, assuming they can eventually pump 1 mbpd is a lot, but will not even make up for the loss of Cantarell during the same time period.

Fourth, Rockdoc has lots of experience in the oil industry and I have learned to respect his opinion. As he says:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o my guess it is one of those things that will extend the peak but not actually affect it.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'W')ith this find, when do you believe the world will hit "peak oil"?

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'T')he production of oil will peak when demand for oil peaks.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')his is just another pedantic trick by OF1&2. He can say such things knowing that demand is not measured. What a tricky little turkey

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat's just full production, they will actually be starting up earlier than that:

[seahorse]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o, I am saying that demand will determine production levels. You peakers believe that production levels will dictate consumption levels.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o, I am saying that demand will determine production levels. You peakers believe that production levels will dictate consumption levels.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I') am saying:
-- 1) There is plenty of oil to satisfy human wants for a very long time.
-- 2) At some point, human wants for oil will diminish, not because the earth is running out of oil, but because we've found a better substitute for it, or because we've learned to use it so efficiently that demand starts to decrease, and/or because human population starts to decrease (which is projected to happen around 2070 anyway). Or some combination of the above. It is impossible for me to say when all these factors might come together. As I said before, it could be 15 years, it could be 50 years, or maybe longer, I don't really know.

[mattduke]

Oil companies that can increase their production while the world is on the downslope will make their owners very wealthy.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7549485

[mattduke]

Here's an article on Petrobras production increases over the last year.

http://www.anba.com.br/ingles/noticia.php?id=18340

[DantesPeak]

Petrobras is quite serious about getting to the oil. The complete article (below) mentioned they will be spending $25 billion just to get going - by 2017. We're really going to need the oil then, so I hope they are successful, but getting oil from that deep will be a great challenge.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')razil Petrobras Board Approves Tender For 12 Drilling Rigs

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
May 30, 2008 5:27 p.m.

RIO DE JANEIRO (Dow Jones)--Brazilian state-owned energy giant Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR), or Petrobras, said late Friday that its board approved a tender for 12 deepwater drilling rigs.

In a regulatory filing, Petrobras said that the rigs are expected to be delivered by the middle of 2012. However, the lack of local production capacity will force the company to look outside of Brazil for construction of the rigs.

The 12 platforms were the first phase of a plan to contract 40 drilling rigs by 2017. The total cost of the program is expected to top $20 billion.

Petrobras urgently needs more drilling equipment to explore and produce from its promising new pre-salt oil province off the coast of southeast Brazil.

In November, Petrobras estimated recoverable reserves at its Tupi field in the pre-salt layer of the Santos Basin off the coast of Rio de Janeiro state at up to 8 billion barrels of oil equivalent. The company has also said that test wells in other Santos Basin blocks have confirmed the presence of oil.

But drilling in the pre-salt layer is risky and expensive, according to analysts. Oil found in Brazil's pre-salt area lies at a water depth of more than 2,000 meters, as well as under an additional 5,000 meters of sand, rock and salt.

[copious.abundance]

There's already a whole ongoing thread with lots of information about these Brazilian finds and related info.
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic34662-90.html

[Spanktron9]

This is from an internal corporate newsletter at my employer:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nother Petrobras Rig At Risk

On, November 27, Scorpion Offshore said it has been unable to secure the needed financing needed to complete theDSS-38 class semi-submersible slated for delivery in December 2011 and under contract to PBR.

We believe this is one of several of the initial rigs contracted by PBR for deepwater work that could be at risk due to the turmoil in capital markets