[funzone36]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ORST-CASE SCENARIO
WORLD WAR III

Freeman: This could become the Islamic equivalent of the Thirty Years War between Protestants and Catholics in Europe in the 1600s -- a religious schism that blossoms into overt mayhem and murder and massacres and warfare. The various Iraqi factions will obtain the backing of other Middle Eastern states as they conduct their ideological and ethnic struggles. It will be a free-for-all that spreads beyond the anarchic zone of Iraq.

Scheuer: The Shiites in Iran will not tolerate the re-emergence of a Sunni government in Iraq. And the last thing the Saudis, Kuwaitis, Egyptians, Jordanians and the rest of the Sunni-dominated states will tolerate is letting the Shia control another oil-rich state in the Muslim heartland. So you're going to see those states running guns and money to Sunni fighters in Iraq. For Jordan and Egypt, this is a golden opportunity to send their young firebrands to fight in Iraq as they did in Afghanistan. It's kind of a pressure-release valve for Sunni dictatorships: People who would be out causing problems because their governments aren't Islamic enough will be out in Iraq fighting the ultimate heretics, the Shia.

So this could explode into a wider regional conflict?

Clarke: I find it difficult to walk through the scenario which creates the wider regional war. The Saudi, Jordanian and Syrian leaders are all rational. The Iranians, despite what we may think of them, are very rational actors, from their perspective. So the idea that any of these nations is going to want to have a multination war is hard to understand. These scenarios the administration talks about for wider regional war remind me of the "domino effect" in Vietnam. We were always told while in Vietnam that if we pulled out, it would result in the fall of Indonesia, the fall of Malaysia, the fall of Thailand, the fall of the Philippines. And, of course, it didn't.

Graham: I disagree. I believe the chance that the chaos in Iraq could bring countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia into the mix is in the forty to fifty percent range. The big danger is what I call the August 1914 Syndrome. The assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in Sarajevo -- what would have been in the scale of history a minor event -- set in motion activities that turned out to be beyond the ability of the Western powers to control. And they ended up in one of the most brutal wars in man's history by accident. If the Saudis come in heavily on the side of the Sunnis, as they have threatened to do, and the Iranians -- directly or through shadow groups like Hezbollah -- become active on behalf of the Shiites, and the Turks and the Kurds get into a border conflict, the flames could spread throughout the region. The real nightmare beyond the nightmare is if the large Islamic populations in Western Europe become inflamed. Then it could be a global situation.

Rosen: Iraq will be the battleground where the Sunni-Shia conflict will be fought, but it won't be limited to Iraq. It will spread. Pandora's box is open. We didn't just open it, we opened it and threw fuel into it and threw matches into it. You'll soon see Sunni militias destabilizing countries like Jordan and Syria -- where the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood is very strong. It took about ten years for the Palestinians to become politicized and militarized when they were first expelled from Palestine. You're likely to see something like that occurring in the huge Iraqi refugee populations in Syria and Jordan. King Abdullah of Jordan is resented for being an American stooge and an accomplice with Israel. I'm convinced that the monarchy in Jordan will fall as a result of this, and Israel will be confronted with a frontline state on its longest border with an Arab country.

Scheuer: I can't help but think we've signed Jordan's death warrant. The country is already on a simmering boil because of the king's oppression of Islamists. It could turn into a police state like Egypt, or an incoherent, revolving-door-type government like Lebanon is becoming now.

Rosen: You're going to see borders changing, governments falling. Lebanon is already on the precipice. Throughout the region, government officials are terrified. Nobody knows how to stop it. This is World War III. How far will it spread? Anywhere there are Islamic movements, like in Somalia, in Sudan, in Yemen. Pakistan has always had Sunni-Shia fighting. The flow of Iraqi refugees will at some point affect Europe.

McPeak: The worst case? Iraq's Sunnis begin to be backed into a corner, then the Sunni governments -- Jordan, Saudi Arabia -- jump in. Israel sees that it's threatened by these developments. Once the Israelis get involved, then everybody piles on. And you've got nuclear events going off in the Middle East. That would be about as bad as it could get.

Not to be crass, but what does that kind of conflict do to the global oil supply?

Cole: During the war between Iraq and Iran, Saddam and Khomeini didn't destroy each other's oil-producing capabilities, because they knew it would make each of them a Fourth World country. But if you get a big multicountry guerrilla war, guerrillas could do what they've been doing in northern Iraq: Hit the oil pipelines. Guerrillas aren't calculating it the way states are as far as mutually assured destruction. If you got pipeline sabotage in Iran and Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, you could take twelve percent of the world's petroleum production off the market. That looks like the second Great Depression.

McPeak: This is a dark chapter in our history. Whatever else happens, our country's international standing has been frittered away by people who don't have the foggiest understanding of how the hell the world works. America has been conducting an experiment for the past six years, trying to validate the proposition that it really doesn't make any difference who you elect president. Now we know the result of that experiment [laughs]. If a guy is stupid, it makes a big difference.

[wisconsin_cur]

The Rolling Stone = "almost guaranteed to happen"

And if they nuke each other... why would we get involved once we can't get to their oil anyway?

[Ainan]

I don't really see it happening.

Lets go back 20 years.

Back then Muslims were seen as very peaceful people, just watch old TV programs and films. Post 911 'they'(the rich elite) fired up the propaganda machine. Now every Muslim guy can't wait to blow himself up apparently. Yet millions seem to resist the temptation on a daily basis when living in western country's.

Of all the different people i have met in my short life, Muslims have been the nicest, friendliest and politest people. Far nicer than the many Christians i have befriended. If you ask me they are just being used as a scape goat.

A serious war will only break out if the USA continues to invade nations as resources diminish. Even then it is unlikely to be just Muslims against the USA, but south Americans/Arabs/Asians.

[Denny]

I think that is one unfortunate aspect of the Islamic worldview. The belief that one can lead others to salvation by imposing the"perfect" religious understanding, even by force. Christianity learned the hard way this is not in Christ's prescription. But even back then during the Catholic-Protestant wars emotions took over from the true leadership of the time. It was the middle level forces (dukes, lords, etc.) who in the name of their faith thought it the glorious thing to engage in warfare. Martin Luther himself was repelled by the excesses and the resort to violence, as was the pope.

Perhaps the brink of horrible conflict will lead some righteous Muslims to question their belief system, and perhaps, even embrace Christianity in the truest sense, along the lines of St. Francis of Assisi. What is to become of the Muslim world at the end times?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', 'I') think that is one unfortunate aspect of the Islamic worldview.

[dorlomin]

Jesus that is some bloody lineup to be so gloomy.

Incidently WWIII was probibly from the Berlin blockade to the Berlin wall (47-89)

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', 'W')hat is to become of the Muslim world at the end times?

[dukey]

we are already in world war 3
it's americas genocide in the middle east

[Homesteader]

[quote="Ainan"]Post 911 'they'(the rich elite) fired up the propaganda machine. Now every Muslim guy can't wait to blow himself up apparently. Yet millions seem to resist the temptation on a daily basis when living in western country's.

Of all the different people i have met in my short life, Muslims have been the nicest, friendliest and politest people. Far nicer than the many Christians i have befriended. If you ask me they are just being used as a scape goat.

/quote]

Excellent post. My experience with Muslims is the same. Huh, come to think of it my experience with so called christians is the same.

[Novus]

I have to agree that Muslims are being used as scape goats to justify resource wars.

The only way a true world war III would break out would be is if Russia tries to make some power plays and oust the US from central Asia. Then maybe we get a WW3.

[jasonraymondson]

Nothing to see here folks, move on. Our great and wonderful overlords will protect us all.

[Gandalf_the_White]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'I') have to agree that Muslims are being used as scape goats to justify resource wars.

The only way a true world war III would break out would be is if Russia tries to make some power plays and oust the US from central Asia. Then maybe we get a WW3.

[3aidlillahi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')The belief that one can lead others to salvation by imposing the"perfect" religious understanding, even by force

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ainan', ' ')Muslims were seen as very peaceful people, just watch old TV programs and films.

[janser]

I dont think muslims are so peacefull as anyone seems to think. For starters they are not very tolerant to christians living in their countrys. In many muslim country if a muslims becomes a christian he can get the dead penalty. Also no church in saudi-arabia are allowed to be build. But in many christian countries muslims have al the freedom to practice there religion. So to me that makes the christians more tolerant and friendlier towards other people and religions then muslims...

[manu]

Something will happen in May that will divide the Muslims from the West (Christians) even more. Yes, a wider war is right around the corner.

[careinke]

I can't generalize to ALL Muslims, but the Saudi's are a pretty messed up bunch.

Death penalty for: Homosexuality, practicing witchcraft, defacing a mosque, converting to another religion, and adultery.

On the bright side they ended slavery in the 1960's (Sort of, if you don't count the abuses to the Third Country Nationals working there).

Then again I might be a little slanted in my views since I worked with them for over nine years, and three months after I left, they blew up the villa I was living in. I do have a very good sense of timing.

Cliff (Start a revolution, grow a garden)

[Magus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('manu', 'S')omething will happen in May that will divide the Muslims from the West (Christians) even more. Yes, a wider war is right around the corner.

[AWPrime]

Sure I have met many nice moslims, however there are some characteristics that do concern me:
- Highly sexist
- Overly protective of (their) religion

[Ferretlover]

My DH and I watched "The Kingdom" last week.
For those who have been there, how real was the presentation of the Saudi lifestyle?