[funzone36]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')rojected global oil product demand in 2008 is little changed at
87.5 mb/d, with downward pressures from weaker economic growth
in the OECD mostly offset by stronger FSU projections. Historical
baseline revisions lift 2006 demand, but in 2007 are more than offset
by a weaker-than-expected 4Q07 in the OECD and data revisions to
several non-OECD countries.
• Global oil supply increased by 185 kb/d in February to 87.5 mb/d with
higher January OPEC crude supplies lifting the base. Output recovery in
Canada, Mexico and the Caspian republics offset reductions for Norway
and OPEC in February. Seasonal limits on OECD production and steady
OPEC output may flatten global supply over the next two months.

[Ainan]

I still think there is a chance we could see another peak in the next few years with all the mega projects coming online. Of course this could be offset by declines in other fields by then. Either way it does not matter, production will not go up significantly and we are on a plateau. Lets hope it lasts several more years, enough time to bring in real efficiency improvements and get myself out of hot water...

[funzone36]

Most megaprojects are unconventional oil fields as we haven't discovered a huge conventional oil field since the 1960s. The wikipedia page has all those numbers in thousands of barrels a day. Only Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan has any significant spare capacity left with a 1108 thousand and 1010 thousands barrels a day megaproject respectively, though even that's not big enough as it's smaller than the output of the tar sands. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Megapr ... ct_summary

They're just projected oil supply growth. No guarantees. But if history proves anything, they're mostly overstated.

[Kingcoal]

I think that light sweet has definitely peaked. The double wammy is that lower grades are selling at historical prices and those grades are more expensive to refine. At the same time, there is a popular movement to stick it to the oil companies. A perfect storm and it should get worse.

[funzone36]

Exactly. EIA statistics:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o how much crude + condensate has the world been producing lately? According to the EIA, In 2005, crude + condensate production maxed out at 74.3 million barrels per day. Since then, according to EIA figures through October of 2007, crude + condensate production has never again reached such a high number. Many in the Peak Oil camp, including Matthew Simmons and Boone Pickens, state that we may well have seen the peak in world oil production in 2005 and they point to the crude + condensate production level as evidence.

[hornofhubris]

If this is not it, then it is for sure the little wooden spoon taste
you get before the big double dipper of rocky road is put into
your cone and you pay up.

[skyemoor]

A current peak is possible, but I'll hedge my bets with some of the heavyweight oil experts (Simmons, Campbell, Skrebowskie, etc) who tend to fall in the 2010-2012 timeframe.

[The_Virginian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ainan', 'I') still think there is a chance we could see another peak in the next few years with all the mega projects coming online. Of course this could be offset by declines in other fields by then. Either way it does not matter, production will not go up significantly and we are on a plateau. Lets hope it lasts several more years, enough time to bring in real efficiency improvements and get myself out of hot water...

[funzone36]

A more detailed research can indicate why the peak of all liquids isn't too significant at all in terms of gasoline production.

We're relying increasingly on heavy, sour crude oil.

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/200 ... _sour.html

More details:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ew sources of oil supply are heavier varieties, which make up about 70 percent of global oil output, according to data compiled by Eni in June 2004.

[dohboi]

Yeah, and that sour, sulfery, acidic, low grade stuff is wreaking havoc on the equipment in refineries and on pipelines. Just visit the refinery closings thread sometime to see.

Of course leaks and explosions only further increase the price and decrease the reliability of supply.

[funzone36]

Just like I predicted, the new IEA report that came out just today has this to say:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')rude futures set new records above $110/bbl in early April, driven by
tight distillate markets, strong non-OECD imports and a weaker dollar.
Refining margins remain extremely volatile, reverting into positive
territory in recent weeks following a large US gasoline stock draw,
which has tightened regional supplies.
• Global oil product demand has been revised down by 310 kb/d in 2008
to 87.2 mb/d following the downgrading of global GDP prospects by the
IMF, coupled with a change in FSU methodology and baseline data
revisions. By the same token, 2007 demand is up by 140 kb/d over last
month’s report to 86.0 mb/d. As a result of these divergent shifts, demand
growth in 2008 is now expected at almost 1.3 mb/d or 1.5% over 2007.
• Global oil supply fell by 100 kb/d in March to 87.3 mb/d, led by lower
supplies last month from OPEC, the North Sea and non-OPEC Africa.
Non-OPEC supply growth in 2008 is trimmed to 815 kb/d on a broad
swathe of adjustments in the Americas, Africa and Europe.
• OPEC crude supply fell by 265 kb/d in March to 32.1 mb/d, on field
maintenance in UAE, Nigeria and Venezuela. Pipeline/power outages
highlighted ongoing risks to production in Iraq and Nigeria amid
effective spare capacity of just 2.3 mb/d. Weaker economic growth cuts
the 2008 call on OPEC by 0.3 mb/d to 31.6 mb/d.
• OECD total industry stocks fell by 48.9 mb in February, to 2,579 mb,
offsetting a similar rise in January. The February draw leaves inventories
At 53.3 days of forward demand. With preliminary data indicating a
build of just 6.3 mb in March, OECD end-1Q08 stocks remain close to
end-December levels.
• Global refinery throughput weakened in March, as poor margins
curbed crude runs in all OECD regions. Estimated 1Q08 global
throughput is unchanged at 74.0 mb/d. However, 2Q08 estimates have
been cut by 0.2 mb/d to 73.7 mb/d, in line with weaker demand.

[Gandalf_the_White]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('funzone36', 'A') more detailed research can indicate why the peak of all liquids isn't too significant at all in terms of gasoline production.

We're relying increasingly on heavy, sour crude oil.

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/200 ... _sour.html

More details:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ew sources of oil supply are heavier varieties, which make up about 70 percent of global oil output, according to data compiled by Eni in June 2004.