[emersonbiggins]

That's how this past week is being painted, and success is laid at Bernanke's feet. I have my doubts.

Emphasis mine below:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')March 21 (Bloomberg) -- The biggest commodity collapse in at least five decades may signal Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has revived confidence in U.S. financial firms.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index posted its first weekly gain in a month, and the dollar leapt from its lowest level since 1973 after the Fed stepped in March 16 to rescue Bear Stearns Cos., the fifth-largest U.S. securities firm, and expanded its role as lender of last resort to embrace the biggest dealers in Treasury notes.

Investors who had poured money into gold, oil and corn, seeking a hedge against inflation and a weak dollar, sold commodities to raise cash or buy stocks. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities tumbled 8.3 percent this week, the most since at least 1956, after touching a record on Feb. 29.

``Bernanke took care of the commodity bubble,'' said Ron Goodis, the retail trading director at Equidex Brokerage Group Inc. in Closter, New Jersey. ``Commodities are coming back to earth. The stock market looks OK, and Bernanke is starting to look a little better.''
...

[RonMN]

Yup, gold rose over 50% then came down 10% & all I hear from my brother is that the price of gold is CRASHING

[sjn]

Self-deception or deliberate misinformation? Good time to buy gold!

[dorlomin]

Gold, what about food and energy. The cost of both is rapidly going out of reach of a huge number of people around the world.

Comodity prices will blow back in our faces like a bloody bomb.

[AirlinePilot]

They have to spin it that way. Any other reality based reasoning just backs up that fundamentals are still supporting what is going down.

Namely a crashing dollar and peak Oil. I find it almost hilarious in some black way that this line is constantly pursued.

I see the moves lately simply as volatility in the markets and the world's economies that are in deep doo-doo.

[emersonbiggins]

And about the stock market, some of the biggest one-day gains were during the Great Depression. I'd expect no less now.

[shortonoil]

emersonbiggins quoted:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')arch 21 (Bloomberg) -- The biggest commodity collapse in at least five decades may signal Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has revived confidence in U.S. financial firms.

[DantesPeak]

Doesn't appear that anyone in the media has noticed that

1. treasury bills rates are about zero, as in nothing, which means the financial system is in a state of disintregration

2. the dollar is rapidly being modified from being backed by the full faith and credit of the US (indirectly through being backed by Treasury bills) to be backed by nebulous mortgage securities, some of which are second level derivatives that can only be understood by scientists - if at all.

The prognosis for inflation in the present condition is bleak, and the most unlikely time in history for commodities to 'bust'.

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', 'G')old, what about food and energy. The cost of both is rapidly going out of reach of a huge number of people around the world.

Comodity prices will blow back in our faces like a bloody bomb.

[shortonoil]

sjn said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think the risk of paper/electronic investments is too high. When things get really out of hand, I wouldn't expect them to be worth anything - including oil futures..

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', 'G')old, what about food and energy. The cost of both is rapidly going out of reach of a huge number of people around the world.

Comodity prices will blow back in our faces like a bloody bomb.

[Dreamtwister]

They can dress it up any way they like. All I see are a bunch of Wall Streeters selling everything they own in order to hold off bankruptcy.

[jlw61]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')I don't the present oil futures system in the US will survive intact beyond 2010. Therefore I am not investing in long term oil futures even though it seems a logicial investment here.

In the short run, to the end of 2008, the futures system may endure.

[evilgenius]

Here is where I get to say I told you so. Enough of that already, however.

The problem is that inflationary forces and deflationary forces are both at work in the US and global economies. Deflation is winning right now. It is my opinion that deflation will win outright and that precious metals are not a good place to be except as a percentage of your investment portfolio, enough to guard against the possibility of inflation being the winner. I am not a buyer of gold at $920. When it goes to the mid $500's I will get interested. I placed my gold stock and silver coin bets a while ago and am not interested in trying to pile on and risk more just for greed's sake.

We all know that oil is not going to follow the same path as gold. Oil's decline rate will guarantee that it will stay relatively high in cost. I will buy oil investments on any dip created by fear of what can't materialize given what we know.

Right here picking up a few really cheap financial stocks might be prudent, not too many shares, enough to take advantage of a brief rally will do.

You need to ask yourselves why the dollar is so weak in comparison to the euro and the pound. The expectation of solid return from those currencies is high. It won't be once TSHTF in the ECB regions and Britain. The only caveat here being that Jean Claude Trichet is probably the world's best central banker and will likely do well against the US attempt to sink the euro coming up. That being said, soon the US will be selling the debt that it is taking in exchange for treasuries. They are going to sell that crappy debt to the Arabs and the Chinese, as well as anyone else that has too many dollars. The Fed is going to make a lot of promises along with that crappy debt that they have no intention whatsoever of keeping. In as little as two years time the Arabs especially will be screaming mad at the US for having stolen their future by suckering them into trading their investment capital for the promise of limited sovereignty and vast return. They won't be happy being told they will have to accept their returns one month at a time.

What is happening now is going to set the stage for the other shoe's drop. The dropping of the other shoe is only going to be partially economic, mostly it will be about war.

Okay, crazy rant over. Shoot holes now. I'm sure that those of you that are certain of an inflationary future have been given plenty of ammunition.

[heroineworshipper]

The latest trades make no sense. Traders wrote off Lehman & Goldman as future bailouts and now they're buying the fiat money they know is going to be printed for the bailouts.

[RdSnt]

Keep in mind also that this is the traditional time during the year when commodities drop some. I was patiently waiting for this to buy in again. I prefer silver and I'm not expecting it to drop to the $12 range, which was my last purchasing round, but another dollar drop would be okay for me.

Part of the drop, particularly in gold, would have to do with some of the big players desperately needing to raise cash from the only thing worth selling.

[shortonoil]

evilgenius said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') placed my gold stock and silver coin bets a while ago and am not interested in trying to pile on and risk more just for greed's sake.

[smallpoxgirl]

Yeah. I sure wouldn't say commodities have collapsed. Gold is down about %10, but it's holding pretty steady at $920. Silver's down about %20, holding in the low $17s. Both of those are still up from three months ago. The base metals are all down this week, but are up from 2 months ago. Oil's still over $100. Doesn't it say something dramatic when the price drops back to where it was 1-2 months ago and people are talking about a bust?

[frankthetank]

Yeah, they talk like the prices are crashing on these commodities. Whatever.

BY FAR the best person a thing could hold would be gasoline and food. You'd never run out of customers, but you would get robbed, shot and assraped for hoarding. So nevermind

[Art_Vandelai]

The commodities "crash" of 10% has so far gotten far more press than the commodities boom that we've been in for the past 4 years ever did. This was a pre-meditated attack to incite fear in those who have hedged their bets against the dollar.

The Fed has maybe bought itself another 2-3, maybe even 4 months before the prices hit new all-time highs once again. The U.S. ever-increasing debt has not disappeared with the demise of Bear Stearns, nor does a 0.6% three-month T-bill rate inspire much confidence for future investment in the US dollar. Commodities will not continue falling in dollar terms for very long.