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Food vs. Fuel (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Group: Ethanol Pushing Up Food Prices

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 31 Jan 2008, 11:22:56

dorlomin wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')any of the third world producers also do not have a level playing field on which to compete. They have faced many years of having surplus stocks of subsidised western foods dumped on them, which cuts profit for reinvestment, now cannot access the most lucerative markets due to trade barriers or recieve the production subsidies to create profit to reinvest.


Sorry, I am not buying it! This is a typical argument that does not hold water on closer inspection. Either they do not have enough food locally - and rely on exports of US corn to make up the food deficit - or not? If so, then they are not producing to access the most lucrative markets, but to feed themselves - trade barriers or not!

How is that foreign food gets imported into western Europe or the USA/Canada in any case? Is this not one of the standard arguments used in these forums that we are eating food drenched in oil due to the amount of energy needed to transport it around the globe? That imported food must be arriving from somewhere, so they must be skirting those trade barriers?

I would accept the re-investment argument if there were not already umpteem development banks and supranational agencies tramping around the developing world giving out a mountain of aid to anyone who can use the funds for investment without wasting it.

The fact is that since Zimbabwe nationalized farms and through out the white farmers they have since moved to Zambia, and agriculture output and farm labor have soared in that country, while back in Zimbabwe they are re-visiting the Stone Age.

One very interesting fact about agriculture and trade in Africa is that trade barriers between African countries are higher than trade barriers between African countries and their non-African trading partners. Why do you suppose that is? Why does it cost more to ship nitrogen fertilizer from one African port to a farm inland than it costs to ship that same fertilizer half-way around the globe?

Of what use is the AU if it will not politically isolate or censure corrupt African leaders, and if it is not a vehicle to pry open domestic markets for inter-African trade. Seems pretty foolish to me to demand access to foreign markets; to ship food abroad; while it is needed to feed the masses at home; and then to ignore liberalising the markets closest to home. But then again I always was quite dense! ; - )

If the geniuses at The World Bank decide that Vietnam should be a low-cost producer of coffee beans, is it then my fault when they put S. American coffee bean producers out of business with their inferior quality coffee beans?

But basically what you're saying is that countries like N. Korea, Pakistan and Sudan just needs access to foreign markets and that would solve their food security issues, right? Got it! ; - )

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey have faced many years of having surplus stocks of subsidised western foods dumped on them


So I guess the good news is that the era of cheap food is over, and we (collectively) are no longer dumping subsidized western food into their markets. Remind OXFAM and CARE to pack their bags. Somalia can now go back to growing their own food.
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High food prices - "just dessert" for high oil?

Unread postby jdmartin » Mon 03 Mar 2008, 21:27:52

The thought occurred to me today. With oil at $103 and counting, it's creating a lot of pain in the US. It's also stimulating a huge (albeit subsidized) switch to biofuel crops. Further, Chinese/Indian growth is eating up greater levels of grains. The price of most all foodstuffs now is through the roof.

Of course, a lot of the Middle East grows nothing of substance, certainly nothing that would support the levels of population growth they've experience since oil struck it rich.

So is high food prices a kind of way to have money flowing in reverse back out of oil countries in the Middle East? Kind of a "oh yeah, take that!" back at 'em?
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Re: High food prices - "just dessert" for high oil

Unread postby anarky321 » Mon 03 Mar 2008, 23:02:40

hard to say without seeing the numbers for each country

their oil revenue could very well be going up faster than their importing costs
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Re: High food prices - "just dessert" for high oil

Unread postby Revi » Mon 03 Mar 2008, 23:09:12

Saudi Arabia just quit growing wheat, so I don't think that they are too concerned with the cost of food. Food is not a huge part of their budget, and we keep making the price of oil go up, so they are probably making more money that they can use to buy wheat. As Lester Brown says, when you import wheat you are importing water, because it takes so much to grow it.

http://xrdarabia.org/2008/02/24/saudis- ... t-growing/
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Food Depletion and Peak Oil

Unread postby Utopia » Tue 18 Mar 2008, 11:36:37

Well, it's good to see article where people are talking about this, but skip the stocks, you cannot eat them, just buy food.

Though food depletion and peak oil is mentioned in the same article, I'm very surprised.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/In ... fFood.aspx
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Re: Food Depletion and Peak Oil

Unread postby Ainan » Tue 18 Mar 2008, 11:59:15

Peak oil and peak food on msn? The end is really nigh. Anyone who can buy stores of non-perishable food should do so now. We live in a golden age where a weeks wages can buy a years worth of food which can be preserved for several years.
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Re: Food Depletion and Peak Oil

Unread postby dinopello » Tue 18 Mar 2008, 12:06:28

The article asks

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ould we really run out of food?


and

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he very idea that the modern world could run out of food seems ludicrous, but that is the flip side, or cause, of the tremendous recent increase in the cost of raw wheat, corn, rice, oats and soybeans.


I would just quote Lynch or Yergin or one of those fine fellows and say that the stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones. and so the human race will not end due to lack of food. It will end because.. oh, wait... that doesn't work :?
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Re: Food Depletion and Peak Oil

Unread postby steam_cannon » Tue 18 Mar 2008, 12:50:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ainan', 'P')eak oil and peak food on msn? The end is really nigh.
I love this stuff! If I said a few years ago that mainstream news
would be talking about peak oil and even use the word famine, just a
few years ago that would have been crazy talk! Oh how the times
are changing...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Empty global cupboards

Shortages are real. The Financial Times reports that rice stocks
have fallen this year to about 70 million tons, the lowest level in 25
years and less than half the total held in global inventories in 2000.
Wheat inventories, called "carry-overs" in the trade, are at 30-year
lows even though world wheat production was actually up 1% last
year. In the past year, reports show, wheat inventories in the
European Union have plunged to 1 million tons from 14 million tons.

A leading Canadian fertilizer executive told analysts recently that
according to his company's calculations, global grain reserves are
"precarious," at just 1.7 months of consumption, down from 3.5
months of reserves as recently as 2000.
I've been talking about this one for a while, it's interesting other people are noticing this too.

They save the [s]worst[/s] best stuff for page 2 :twisted:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Could we really run out of food? Page 2

Now the really bad news is that we might actually have been lucky
in the past few years
, as global warming has lengthened growing
seasons in the American Plains, sometimes called the Saudi Arabia
of corn. BMO's Coxe notes that the U.S. Midwest has enjoyed 17
straight years without significant crop failure, the longest winning
streak on record. If this fortunate run ends soon, we'll likely face a
worldwide crisis.

Some researchers, including climatologist Elwyn Taylor of Iowa
State University, believe it could happen this year, as La Nina
conditions are emerging at a time when the Midwest has become
vulnerable due to a drought creeping up from the South.


Food prices are already way up in America but not as much as feed
prices because manufacturers, processors and retailers such as
Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, news, msgs) have found ways to hold the
line by cutting expenses. But they can dam up the flood of food
inflation for only so long. Just this week, Procter & Gamble (PG,
news, msgs) announced it was raising prices on many of its foods
products, including Folgers coffee. J&J Snack Foods said it would lift
prices by as much as 12% in April to offset costs, and local
newspapers have been rife with stories about pizzerias both raising
prices and cutting back on crust thickness and cheese quantities.

...If global famine is one bad crop away, then surely there is
an investment angle.

...Coxe's solution: As a first step, shut down all ethanol plants
immediately. "It's criminal to burn corn for fuel when we are out of
food
," he said. In a particularly pernicious development, he noted
that a big boost in demand for soybeans for use as biodiesel in
Europe has driven up the price of palm oil in Southeast Asia, where
it is the main source of protein for the poor.

http://tinyurl.com/3297yy
Ethanol and biodiesel are dead ends or end in death, that shouldn't
come to a surprise to anyone here. Pretty heavy stuff for a mainstream
news article. Good find Utopia.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

And the article doesn't mention it, but besides drought in the midwest:
Megadrought - Southwest to Sizzle for 90 Years
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=3352465

And so much more...

No bread on the shelves
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic35034.html
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Re: Food Depletion and Peak Oil

Unread postby billp » Tue 18 Mar 2008, 20:20:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak oil overthrows green revolution


cheers

From us in the trench.

:-)
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Re: Food Depletion and Peak Oil

Unread postby timmac » Thu 17 Apr 2008, 23:45:00

I just heard on the public radio station that China might stop exporting fertilizers because supplys are running low and cost is way up and they need it all for there farmers,, heard that Europe is there biggest buyer and they will be in a big hurt if they stop selling to them,, it also went on to say that crop production with out fertilizers can drop 1/3 yield,, This just cant happen this fast all of a sudden,, Whats Happening,, Did we peak a couple years ago or what...
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Re: Food Depletion and Peak Oil

Unread postby bodigami » Fri 18 Apr 2008, 02:18:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '(')...) the stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones. and so the human race will not end due to lack of food. It will end because.. oh, wait... that doesn't work :?


Can I add that lines to my signature? :lol:
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Re: Food Depletion and Peak Oil

Unread postby hironegro » Fri 18 Apr 2008, 18:21:09

I think this has to do more with consequences neo-liberal globalism than peak oil at the moment.
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TOLD YOU SO fuel from food

Unread postby grabby » Fri 25 Apr 2008, 12:13:36

I just wanted to come back, a year after I told everyone that ethanol and biofuels would send the world into starvation mode and cause famines. I was told I was incorrect then. I just want to come back and say
Told you so.

And Mr. Palm oil biofuel man isn't here anymore I see.

Now I just want to say
NAFTA will destroy the economy.

If we are still here next year I will try and say told you so.

see you.
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Re: TOLD YOU SO fuel from food

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Fri 25 Apr 2008, 12:33:50

Huh?

NAFTA has been around for well over a decade and has been pretty successful.

Why will the effects of NAFTA suddenly cause economic hardship in the United States, Canada or Mexico?
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Re: TOLD YOU SO fuel from food

Unread postby gnm » Fri 25 Apr 2008, 12:36:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'W')hy will the effects of NAFTA suddenly cause economic hardship in the United States, Canada or Mexico?


Not suddenly - it already has - tell it to an unemployed GM worker whose job is now in Juarez.

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Re: TOLD YOU SO fuel from food

Unread postby mlit » Fri 25 Apr 2008, 12:42:44

The only reason NAFTA didn't cause as much damage earlier is that bubbles propped up other areas of the economy. Bubbles that saw wages drop for a lot of us while bubble surfers got rich.

Those bubbles are gone now.
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Re: TOLD YOU SO fuel from food

Unread postby FoxV » Fri 25 Apr 2008, 16:43:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', 'I') just wanted to come back, a year after I told everyone that ethanol and biofuels would send the world into starvation mode and cause famines. I was told I was incorrect then. I just want to come back and say
Told you so.


Really? somebody actually disagreed with you on that point. And it was actually somebody worth saying "I told you so" to.

I thought the futility of biofuels was pretty well accepted around here
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Re: TOLD YOU SO fuel from food

Unread postby cube » Fri 25 Apr 2008, 16:53:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', '
')And Mr. Palm oil biofuel man isn't here anymore I see.
Are you talking about "Lorenzo"?

Wasn't he the one with the avatar pic of a strategically placed avocado? :oops:

yeah I haven't heard from him in awhile.....and some other folks too!
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Re: TOLD YOU SO fuel from food

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Fri 25 Apr 2008, 16:55:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'W')hy will the effects of NAFTA suddenly cause economic hardship in the United States, Canada or Mexico?


Not suddenly - it already has - tell it to an unemployed GM worker whose job is now in Juarez.

-G


Exactly!

Predicting that NAFTA will destroy the economy is like predicting that oil will hit $50 a barrel.

It already has and it's not a useful prediction at this point.
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Re: TOLD YOU SO fuel from food

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 25 Apr 2008, 18:49:01

I actually found myself pondering a question I could not find an answer for the other day. If you take a handy chunk of California desert not too far inland from the Pacific and plant 1000 acre's of oil palms on it how much sea water would you have to desalinate to keep them properly watered? How much energy would it take to desalinate and move that much water to the plantation? Migfht be worth it if it means they will stop cutting down all the tropical rain forests to plant oil palms!
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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