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THE Carlyle Group Thread (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 14 Mar 2008, 11:12:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', ' ')Is there a good chance of the dollar losing 20-50% of its value in 2 months?

It's quite possible and a certainty if we have a major event occur in the US.


I am almost thinking it is inevitable at the moment? Once we break $1.6000 against the euro as I doubt even concerted central bank intervention would be successful at the moment given the negative sentiment surrounding the US dollar and favorable interest rate differentials for the euro? Scary stuff! ; - ))
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Unread postby benzoil » Fri 14 Mar 2008, 12:21:24

Maybe we should have been worried about Bear Stearns. They're taking a pounding today after the announcement that the Fed and JPMorgan Chase were bailing them out for 28 days.

More of these to come, I suspect.

Now...if the dollar would stop it's plummet for a bit, oil prices might dip briefly due to the obviously tanking economy.
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 14 Mar 2008, 16:41:32

It seems Bear Sterns is a dead man walking? Anyone remember Banker's Trust? ; - )
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Unread postby dinopello » Fri 14 Mar 2008, 16:48:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I')t seems Bear Sterns is a dead man walking?


Seriously, let that Bear die already. What's the point of heroic efforts to drag it out ? Are the foreclosed houses in the desert suddenly going to appreciate? Are they going to pawn them off to some unsuspecting Chinese or Middle Eastern bank ? Not gonna happen, stick a fork in it.

edit: Just saw this, though

Bush says:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')I'm coming to you as an optimistic fellow," he told the elite crowd of investors, economists and corporate titans. "I've seen what happens when America deals with difficulty. I believe that we're a resilient economy. And I believe that the ingenuity and resolve of the American people is what helps us deal with these issues and it's going to happen again."



So, you see - it's gonna be alright.

He's saying a lot of stuff about keeping the gov't out of it but obviously the fed is in it up to their eyebrows.
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Unread postby Ferretlover » Fri 14 Mar 2008, 19:00:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'S')eriously, let that Bear die already.


See? It is not Really a BEAR market!! :-D
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 14 Mar 2008, 20:59:08

<i>The speech was part of a broader effort by the president to strike a balance between staying positive in the face of economic turmoil without appearing out of touch with [reality].</i>

Question: How much money can the Fed create out of thin air and funnel to Prime Dealers to purchase Toxic Mortgage derivitives, before the rest of the global financial market kicks down the door and closes down the operation. Those standing to be ripped off by this scam are large sovereign nations with huge military budgets. They are not just fleecing the poor and stupid anymore.
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Unread postby patience » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 07:56:47

Mike Whitney brings us up to date on the seriousness of our situation:

A Vicious Circle

So, Nouriel Roubini has been right so far, and probably is for the future. How much time do we have to prepare for this? How far will the dollar crash? THEN WHAT?
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Unread postby Gerben » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 16:35:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'H')ow far will the dollar crash?

I think the answer depends on where we are in the oil peak and on how the US government will handle this crisis.
If you believe that we are in a temporary crisis where oil will be available (altough a bit more expensive) then things could turn back to normal. This credit crisis will be temporary. US export will grow and overtake imports. A normal J-curve. It then depends on how long it will take for exports to pick up on how much further the dollar will slide, but I expect no lower than somewhere around US$ 1,70/€. This also asumes that Bernanke will change his policies to fight inflation at the first signs of economic recovery.

We are on a doomer website though. Although I do not believe that oil will get a lot more expensive than it already is, I do believe that this crisis may be hard to solve. Hardly any measures have been taken to solve this crisis, only to delay it. Unless real measures are taken the dollar may continue to fall, accellerating inflation. It can continue to fall until measures are taken. A recession is not bad if you let it weed out companies that are unsuccessfull. The current policy seems aimed at not letting that happen.

Furthermore the US government will need to work towards a balanced budget. Measures will have to be taken to stimulate a more sustainable economic development. That does not include food for fuel. Since they have no money for subsidies, the government will have to tax the use of fossil fuels or the emission of greenhouse gasses.
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