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Re: Another Oil price Record

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: $107

Postby Chuckmak » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 22:06:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'A')s usual, most of us are being proven right, and most of the rest of the world proven wrong.

That's what scares me.

It scares me that we are right, and are likely to go on being right, not just about oil costs but all the rest of it.


and ironically i HATE being right about it :cry:
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Re: $107

Postby SILENTTODD » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 22:09:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fishman', 'N')ah just leave it to the "feee market" to sort out. Which often ends with things far nastier than closed gas stations you know oh those nasty type things with people on the street wanting to chop heads off.

No bailouts for the banks either. In fact "let them eat cake" or rather their bogus fractional dollars :twisted:


I personally don’t believe the current run up of the price of oil in dollars has much to do with the current availability of oil so much as it has to do with the collapse of the dollar. This has been set up to happen since the reinstitution by W of the Reagan insanity of “borrow and spend” to finance further tax cuts for the wealthy and foreign wars.

Good side: who ever is elected President will soon have to withdraw from Iraq and every base on non-American soil. We (America) are very quickly going to be losing the ability to afford financially foreign troop postings and bases.

Down side: Expect a steep drop in the American standard of living, perhaps greater than what the citizens of the old Soviet Union experienced.

Recommendations: Buy only Gold and Silver as investment. Stock up on Alcohol, not to drink! (But possibly use as barter). Get a least one good Bicycle! With as many tires and tubes as you can afford right now.
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Re: $107

Postby Heineken » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 22:26:50

Agree with everything you said, Todd, except I do think there are supply constraints relative to demand, and that the friction between the two is inevitably contributing to the runup.

Never forget, the easy half of the oil is gone; what's left is the harder half, much of which the producers will want to keep for themselves and their "booming" economies.

Think what that means for the price of an imported commodity on which the US depends so utterly!

The doo-doo has never been so deep.
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Re: $107

Postby Niagara » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 22:27:02

$5.30/gal predicted in Canada in a few months ($1.40/litre) according to CTV, a major news network

Link

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')as could go up to $1.40 a litre within months

The Canadian Press

CALGARY — Gasoline prices in Canada could rise to about $1.40 a litre in a few months if oil prices stay at current record levels and demand picks up for the summer driving season, oil industry observers say.
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Re: $107

Postby Zardoz » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 22:29:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'A')s usual, most of us are being proven right, and most of the rest of the world proven wrong.

That's what scares me.

It scares me that we are right, and are likely to go on being right, not just about oil costs but all the rest of it.

Oh, yeah. We're frighteningly correct. This is a really scary place to browse around. I guess it's because we disseminate so much information, and don't filter it through some sort of spin machine. We just post it and dissect it, and democratically come to a general consensus. We're usually on the right path. This place is like going back to school or something.
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Re: $107

Postby Heineken » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 22:47:10

It has been very much a school for me, Zardoz. A sprawling, octopus-like, electronic mentor, even.

The great thing about a place like PO.com is that you can be teacher and student at the same time.

There is a cross to bear in being so peculiarly well-informed about what's really happening, though. It's the antonym of "ignorance is bliss."
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Re: $107

Postby Revi » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 23:04:38

I think Peak Oil is a lens to see the truth about what is happening in the world. I have to say that it is a lot less frightening to me to know what's going on then to be in the dark about something.

$107 is a price that allows oil to keep flowing out of the ground. It allows a certain class of people to continue their lifestyle, while others are priced out.

This is the end of the car culture for a lot of people, and the end of a lot of things we took for granted. We are used to hopping in our cars and going wherever we want.

We never used to think about the price of heating oil. It just showed up, and we paid the bill out of our paychecks. Now we have to budget it every year.

Next year will be tough. This year we are paying $2.33 a gallon and I don't think we'll get it for much less than $4 a gallon when it comes time to pre-buy.

I'm cutting a lot of wood for next winter.

I have a feeling that the next class that is priced out of the market is us, the working class.
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Re: $107

Postby Heineken » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 23:34:08

$4+ heating oil is one thing, but $4+ gasoline (and $5+ diesel)?

How does the US continue business as usual?

It doesn't. It can't. It won't.
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Re: $107

Postby yesplease » Mon 10 Mar 2008, 23:48:48

The dollar can only drop so far. :razz:
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Re: Another Record

Postby emersonbiggins » Tue 11 Mar 2008, 00:10:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')No doubt the falling value of the dollar and the growing desire of oil exporters to price in other than dollars has also contriuted to the current price surge.


...not to mention the surging cost in steel to make the barrels the oil is shipped in.


(j/k)



(really)
:oops: remember that thread?
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Re: Another Record

Postby DantesPeak » Tue 11 Mar 2008, 00:14:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')No doubt the falling value of the dollar and the growing desire of oil exporters to price in other than dollars has also contriuted to the current price surge.


...not to mention the surging cost in steel to make the barrels the oil is shipped in.


(j/k)



(really)
:oops: remember that thread?


Seems oil infrastructure costs are rising at an exponential rate all over the world.

The Gulf Cooperation Council has called an emergency meeting to discuss inflation, which I don't really think they can do much about - even if they totally drop the US dollar.
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Re: $107

Postby dissident » Tue 11 Mar 2008, 00:47:59

Given the previous pattern there will be some silly announcement about US oil stocks being above normal and the price will drop by $20. Of course, reality will drive it back up.

I find it hard to believe that Bernanke's decision to drop the interest rate would devalue the dollar so much in such a short period of time. The exchange rate between the dollar and the euro went up from 1.40 to 1.53 in the last 120 days. That's just over a 9% increase while oil has gone up by twice as much.
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Re: $107

Postby jdmartin » Tue 11 Mar 2008, 01:00:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', 'G')iven the previous pattern there will be some silly announcement about US oil stocks being above normal and the price will drop by $20. Of course, reality will drive it back up.

I find it hard to believe that Bernanke's decision to drop the interest rate would devalue the dollar so much in such a short period of time. The exchange rate between the dollar and the euro went up from 1.40 to 1.53 in the last 120 days. That's just over a 9% increase while oil has gone up by twice as much.


I don't - I think the US is increasingly looked at as unstable around the world, economically, and as such other currencies are looking far more attractive, especially when US interest yields are pathetic. We've got a couple of income-producing bond issues at work that have gone from providing 5.5% yield to under 3% in the span of 4 months. That's the kind of stuff that will send anyone with money scurrying for the exits...
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Re: $107

Postby yesplease » Tue 11 Mar 2008, 01:30:43

Gold and other commodities have also gone up more than proportionally to the drop in the dollar compared to the rest for the world as perceived safe harbors. Whether they will be safe or not has yet to be seen.
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Re: $107

Postby aflurry » Tue 11 Mar 2008, 02:18:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', 'W')e now have speculation and hedge-fund managers.


sorry, this is different from when? how?
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Re: $107

Postby Last_Laff » Tue 11 Mar 2008, 02:41:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'A')s usual, most of us are being proven right, and most of the rest of the world proven wrong.

That's what scares me.

It scares me that we are right, and are likely to go on being right, not just about oil costs but all the rest of it.


Nothing is wrong to be right. It's ok to be scared that you're right. But you should be appreciated that we're right, however.

But the rest of us herd (the sheeples) are wrong and they'll be smacked in the face with a brick wall, you reckon?
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Re: Another Record

Postby Schadenfreude » Tue 11 Mar 2008, 05:30:42

Isn't this a case of the dollar dropping like a stone, people dumping dollars and much of that money finding its way to commodities? That, in conjunction with liquidation or avoidance of the RE market?

Pretty soon traders will realize that commodity markets markets have been overbought and there will be a sell-off. They've been acting as a very bumpy store of value so far.
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Re: $107

Postby NeoLotus » Tue 11 Mar 2008, 05:31:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'A')s usual, most of us are being proven right, and most of the rest of the world proven wrong.

That's what scares me.

It scares me that we are right, and are likely to go on being right, not just about oil costs but all the rest of it.


I'm waiting for the grocery shelves in my little town in rural MN (prime farmland America) to start having blank spaces on the shelves or price increases that amount to sticker shock. Then maybe, just maybe, the town might consider its own roots as a farm town instead of a big city wannabe.

But then, we'll have to contend with the Farm Bill that limits what people grow on their farms if they are getting any supports for growing monoculture crops. There's a heavy penalty to be paid for switching to fruits and veggies. And before anyone spouts off about farmers and farm subsidies, there's a huge difference between the family farmers I know personally who need those supports and the mega-corp farms that don't.

Even so, given the current economic situation and increase in oil/gasoline prices and its impact on food prices, I'm inclined to start thinking about "guerrilla" vegetable growing and really pushing on installing a permanent, year-round, with meat coolers, farmer's market. Hm. This makes my nerves tingle. Gotta find courage.
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Re: $107

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 11 Mar 2008, 05:42:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'A')s usual, most of us are being proven right, and most of the rest of the world proven wrong.

That's what scares me.

It scares me that we are right, and are likely to go on being right, not just about oil costs but all the rest of it.

So you should allow long beard to grow, wear shabby clothes, take a stick to your hands and carry on telling peoples the same things, what you are telling now.

After several years you will be recognized as a prophet.
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Re: $107

Postby Cid_Yama » Tue 11 Mar 2008, 05:44:09

<i>I'm inclined to start thinking about "guerrilla" vegetable growing and really pushing on installing a permanent, year-round, with meat coolers, farmer's market.</i>

Dang, I've been thinking along the same lines. Across from the hospital is a graveled lot where local farmers sell produce out of the back of their trucks. Across the side street is a gas station/ convenience store that I've been thinking would make a great meat market to sell the local ranchers wares from.
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