[kpeavey]

back then I figured $5/gallon would start shutting down traffic. $3 is doing the job. I can get by with gas at $15/gallon, although it will surely suck.

The boaters on the river slowed down and thinned out at $2.50/gallon, this year will be nice and quiet out there. I see people I work with sharing rides. People are taking in roommates. Houses are not selling. Take a look overseas, the situation is getting grim indeed.

I did not expect ethanol to take on such a role as fast as it did. I had not done all my research. This is taking the food situation where I expected it to go.

I think back to 2004, if I knew then what I know now, I'd be in a fine position.

Thinking back to 2000, if I knew now what I knew then, I'd be much more at ease.

[auscanman]

Back in 2004/05 I wasn't fully aware of how well TPTB were able to look after themselves, and keep the masses deluded, so back then I would have thought that $100 oil would indeed have been something along the lines of the straw that broke the camel's back.

As I've learned of and witnessed the immense power of the TPTB, I've come to think that thing may still be kept pretty much together all the way until $200 oil. The masses have shown that they'd much prefer to be deluded than face the music, so TPTB don't have to do too much to keep people placated. Also, I think that it's important to bear in mind that TPTB have shown themselves fully capable of looking after their own interests. Most important of all, they still have a bubble left that they can turn to their advantage... ie. the 'green bubble'. Some very creative financing will obviously be necessary seeing as the majority of the population are tapped out, but government bailouts can always come in handy there.

[bodigami]

Shortages of oil, blackouts, riots, that's when I define TSHTF. Oil at $x is not doom, it's just "old good" inflation.

[Pops]

I like the Willey Coyote analogy.

And like Mike (KJ) and KP I am surprised at the pace of change all around the edges.

I don't think I focused on Overnight Armageddon except for a few times.

I kinda think our current situation has more to do with the US$ and investors running away from real estate than straight geology.

Having said that, it is pretty obvious energy prices are impacting the economy but I am not convinced that a little demand destruction won't scare off some of the managers investing in commodities.

As far as my ingenuity I am more than pleased with our move, way back I thought at this time we would be in a price dip due to increased supplies.

[static66]

It's Wile E. Coyote with a charge card in his hand, the reason the "economy" is still moving is because of all the credit cards and
buy now don't pay till next year shit is pushing it up this steep hill, very, very slowly now and when the inertia of this bloated credit driven piece of shit economy comes rolling backwards it will devastate the US just like you thought it would.... Citi goes down and all the other banks are gonna go right down with them.... FDIC is a f-in joke when you talk about the level of debt that is out there right now.... not everybody is planting beans and tomatoes and using push-mowers you know!!!

[jasonraymondson]

until the cost of gas catches up with the rise in the cost of crude will we begin to see the cracks widen in the infrastructure.

Oil could hit 200.00 and it doesn't mean much. What matters, is the income available vs income spent on transportation. Not until the cost become truely prohibitive or people no longer make enough money at their jobs to offset the cost will we see anything of any real mentionability.

Think of a graph with an outward bent curve on the y cordinate you have the cost of fuel and the x cordinate you have the unemployment rate. As the cost of fuel rises you will see a steady increase in the unemployment rate and people trying to gather welfare checks to cover their day to day expenses.

As the more and more people turn to the government to subsidize their life due to the increased cost of gas. The government in turn will post higher and higher losses of gdp, both due to the payouts being made to the unemployed resources and to the governments own energy related expenses i.e. military

We are looking long term people, not tomorrow. Sadly before a real societal collapse gets her, most of us will be to old to fight the man.

Short term and towards the next 10 years we are looking at a steady erosion of buying power and increasing unemployment. Crime will increase dramatically over the next few years.

[jlw61]

What is the breaking point? THERE IS NO BREAKING POINT BASED ON PRICE. Availabilty plays a large key as does the fantastical trust in paper money that holds no real value.

The non-econimists view (ie, real life)

I've run several businesses in my life time and the growing business is an amazing thing. As you get more customers coming through the door, you sell more, buy more and occassionally earn more. However, the real test of how well you've been running your business comes when the number of customers levels out or even drops. A well run business can handle plateuas and contractions. A really well run business can continue on even through a difficult, but limited, recession.

Most businesses can typically run at a deficit as long as they keep growing their business. This allows them the ability to play shell games and occassionally get caught up with the bills. Further, a creditor is likely to cut a growing business some real slack.

This is how the US has been running since the Depression. Growing (even during most recessions) and getting everyone to buy into the "dollar is king" idea. During this time we've suckered just about everyone into holding huge amounts of our debt and they are now believe they are absolutely dependent upon our way of doing business.

Now the entire world is in a bind and a lot of people are trying to figure out what to do. There have a few choices:

1) Try to work through it and continue on with business as usual (possible, just getting more difficult).

2) Start cutting their losses while trying not to set off an avelanche that will bust things up (less likely because of the danger).

3) Cut and run and hope to weather the storm (yeah, right).

4) Play the "big lie" shell game. Blame some one or some situation as the real reason, convince everyone you've fixed the problem. Continue on as before (most likely scenario). Possiblities include sub-prime mortgages, financial houses, "other badguys" who were playing by the rules set by governments.

If the US can sucker the general public to pay for the sins of the government while keeping most of the foreign creditors in line, there is a chance for everyone to continue for a while. However, the debt is piling up and the resources outlook is dimming (thus curbing growth avenues).

Ultimately:

Price of oil means NOTHING. If wages begin to go up due along with inflation, things can still work for a while. Growth, even inflationary growth, can keep things going a little longer. All TPTB have to do is do something unexpected and untried and everyone will buy in believing they will be saved (and it usually works out that way, for a while).

However, if the oiil plateua turns to a depletion curve or the belief in fiat moneies, as a whole, is shaken, we will have a global depression. If the oil curve drops off quickly or the trust in the paper money system is destroyed then get out your leathers, motorcycles and double barreled shotguns because it's Mad Max time.

[TT]

It's going pretty much as I thought it would. We made our move back to our rural town and have worked to set it up for an oil crash. I didn't expect anything much to happen for a few years, except that people would start to move closer into cities and be forced to tighten their belts as energy started to take more out of their wallets.

It's pretty much playing out like that. There's more homelessness than I anticipated and I think things are starting to move a little faster than I initially thought.

This year is shaping up to be a tough one for many and I think we may see things speeding up a little from here on.

I have no regrets for making the move to our rural haven. Life is good here.

[smiley]

Hi Barbara, nice to see you making it back here.

I am not really surprised with the oil prices. I was expecting the dollar to fall and oil to rise. $107 is as much a result of the one as the other. What I am surprised with is the absolute lack of reaction from the public.

At this point in the seventies you had countless initialives, both from the government, the municipalies and the public. I was still pretty young back then but I do remember the carless sudays. And I know my parents like everyone then replaced their car by a more economic model.

Now SUV sales are slumping a bit, but they are still sold in large numbers. Every year people are driving more, not less. I would think that paying >100 Euro to fill up your tank would wake a lot of people up.

The same with the house prices. Late seventies everyone was concerned about the interest rates and the prices. Now it is like people don't care or don't want to care. They keep committing themselves to extremely risky debts, deaf and blind to the economic reality around them.

I can't wrap my head around it. Maybe people think it will blow over, lulled by the politicians smooth talk. But then again they didn't buy it in the seventies. Maybe they are just numbed by the constant price increases that have resulted from abandoning the gold standard, and have lost perspective on the value of things. Or maybe society has just changed since the 70's.

In any way, I never been a proponend for a hard crash. But the longer people are trying to pretend business as usual, the chances of society hitting a brick wall increase greatly.

[Pops]

Over here smiley there are many laws being floated and passed regarding Green and Foreign. Not quite too the point however.

I have a client (I do some design for ad agencies) who is about to go broke because vehicle sales are waay down - don't believe the current numbers in the media.

As for housing, it is becoming a bigger problem and will continue to as Boomers retire and want their money.


I'm thinking none of us had our ball in correct focus.

[dissimulo]

Increasing oil prices haven't had as serious an impact as I would have guessed, but things are looking increasingly grim. I am glad I had a few years to start preparing before prices really started to go through the roof. Knowing about PO has been good for both my preps and my investments.

And, hopefully I'll keep being wrong on the large scale - that really wouldn't disappoint me at all.

[Tanada]

I ver imagined that gasoline would still be availible at well under $4.00 with Crude Oil at over $100.00

I don't know what to make of it, for months now the price of Gasoline has seems as if it is very artificially low compared to what I would expect it to be.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'I') ver imagined that gasoline would still be availible at well under $4.00 with Crude Oil at over $100.00

I don't know what to make of it, for months now the price of Gasoline has seems as if it is very artificially low compared to what I would expect it to be.

[Revi]

I told everyone about 3 or 4 years ago, but they didn't want to hear me. They basically shouted me down whenever I brought the subject up. They still don't want to hear about it, so I say nothing about it any more.

This weekend I filled my little truck up at the local gas station. There was a guy filling his gigantic pickup when I pulled up. He joked that he'd pay mine if I paid his. I went into the store and paid my $33, and came back out and he was still filling. His bill must have been over $150. We talked about the price of gas. He didn't have any idea why it was so expensive.

There are a lot of people like that. They will go under if they maintain their present course. They don't want to hear any other ways of staying afloat. What can we do?

I just prepare nowadays. Every afternoon. Today I picked up some shelves for food, and then I got some water containers for hauling sap up in the maple sugarbush.

Gotta do something every day. It's coming. I told them it was coming...