[Barbara]

When I stumbled into peakoil.com back in 2004, oil was around $30. We were a few dozens here, and everybody was guessing "when" TSHTF.
At $50? At $70? At, God forbid, $100?

Nobody really believed we would be still here, sitting in front of a PC, with oil at $107. We were pretty sure everybody would be scavenging for food, shooting potato thieves, rescueing grandmas from rapers, eating honey, burning furniture and so on.
I'd never believe life would have been still "normal" at 107. And you? Are you surprised of your 2004 ingenuity? Or... are you surpirsed life is still "normal"?

[holmes]

I never worried about it. Talk to me when 6 bucks a gallon is firmly entrenched at the gas pump. Our economic system is not designed for that. Do the math. I know the folks who do.

[Barbara]

(LOL holmes, 6 bucks per gallon would be a bargain here... we are at $8... but we just give them euros so no problem! )

[Schadenfreude]

Back in 2004, I really thought that $65 oil would be an economy wrecker. I was wrong. And I think most everybody else was too.

One would think that $120 oil would really be frightening but I'm not so sure even about that amount now. Also, the whole thing is complicated by the decline of the dollar.

I wonder how long it will be before the talking heads on CNN are commenting about the price of oil as it ominously cuts out new highs on a regular basis. They seem mostly oblivious to it.

[holmes]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barbara', '(')LOL holmes, 6 bucks per gallon would be a bargain here... we are at $8... but we just give them euros so no problem! )

[Tyler_JC]

I figured that $100 oil would make the US trade deficit explode, would decrease the value of the dollar, would hurt the stock market, and increase the price of gold. I also figured that consumption would decline and that people would become more interested in alternative energy and efficiency.

All of that stuff is happening right now.

If only I'd put more money into it...

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Schadenfreude', '
')
I wonder how long it will be before the talking heads on CNN are commenting about the price of oil as it ominously cuts out new highs on a regular basis. They seem mostly oblivious to it.

[MacG]

I've never worried very much over a HIGH oil price. As long as prices rise, at least we will HAVE gasoline and diesel.

I used to worry over manipulation keeping the price artificially low, thus causing shortages, and shortages would really freak us out.

As the price rise, I relax more and more.

[mekrob]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat plans do Obama and Billary have to cope with this problem?

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Schadenfreude', 'B')ack in 2004, I really thought that $65 oil would be an economy wrecker. I was wrong. And I think most everybody else was too.

[jato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')re you surprised of your 2004 ingenuity? Or... are you surprised life is still "normal"?

[Olaf]

I thought $100 oil would be an economy breaker.

We're teetering now it seems. People keep tightening, which makes the economy worse, a reinforcing problem, creating more inflation, making prices go higher as the rich need to make more to off that barrel to get the same real value out of it.

I know my budget continues to keep getting tighter. The salary keeps buying less. My work situation right now has me commuting far more than I would like (closing on some land at the end of the month so hopefully that will change sooner rather than later). I spend about $400 a month on gas and I drive one of the most fuel efficeint non-hybrids, non-diesel vehicles out there (Hyundai Elantra), in the U.S. anyway.


Olaf

[RonMN]

Barbara Wrote:
are you surpirsed life is still "normal"?

You haven't been following the housing collapse have you? Or the credit crisis? Bond insurers? Municipal bond auction failures? Writedowns? Ratings Downgrades? Bailouts?

If the price of oil stays right where it is...we're still royally screwed!

The new great depression is set to begin september/october...got popcorn?

[Chuckmak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', 'W')ho the hell shoots potato thieves? That's just another person who can be your slave on your farm.

[lawnchair]

You know the WB cartoons where Wile E Coyote is running so fast that he flies over the cliff and he's hanging in the air for 4 or 5 seconds with a big question mark over his head.

It's kinda like that.

[mekrob]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he new great depression is set to begin september/october...got popcorn?

[seahorse2]

Even back in 2004, Andrew Mckillop was writing and telling people that higher oil prices, even up to $100, would in fact increase global GDP not set it back. If you haven't read his articles, google him and read them, and it will make sense. So, no, I'm not surprised that the economy can continue with $100+oil. Like Jato, it is production which matters. If you can't increase, the economy can't grow. If production decreases, then the economy has to recede as well. So, not surprisingly, with plateau oil we see the largest gas guzzling oil nation in the world now in a recession. In the Colin Campbell's 1999 book "The Coming Oil Crisis" he opined the world would see several such recessions which would decrease demand for oil until finally, global oil decline sets in. We haven't seen production declines yet. When and if declines set in, that's how I define the old doomer SHTF.

[MikeB]

[quote]Or... are you surpirsed life is still "normal"? [/quote]

this is "killJOY," logged in under my 2004 name!

I'm surprised things are happening as fast as they are.

My guess is that life is NOT "normal"; people are suffering, privately. I no longer have ANY money for discretionary spending.

But I have lots of firewood.

I dreaded 2007. But it came and went.

Apparently, I was only a year late. things are happening very fast right now. This is going to be an awful year.

[skiwi]

Apart from the immediate effect on pump prices I thought the
general consensus was that it took 12-18 months for oil prices
to filter through to the rest of the economy.

[Gandalf_the_White]

The real price of gas we ought to be seeing in America for $100 is not here yet. I am not sure how exactly they are keeping it down, but if it is any sort of price control at all we are going to see shortages this summer. Gas should already be over $4 per gallon on average around here. And believe me $4 per gallon is enough to keep most of the lower middle class from taking their summer camping trip (and btw that demographic out numbers the upper middle class by about 4 to 1, and the upper class by about 100 to 1) Add to that the housing crunch and we are in for it. The real canary here though is why oil has been able to be maintained above $90 for so long this winter. Peak happened in 05/06, we are now starting the painful march down the other side and people on the inside know it. Nobody would bet on $90 oil for six months in a row if millions of extra barrels per day could just be tossed out like another log on the flame. We are being kept in the dark about how bad things really are.