by Micki » Thu 13 Mar 2008, 02:32:49
And Jim Sinclair who also stuck with his predictions of USD .52 and GOLD at minimum $1650 for quite some time now:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he only chart that might be worse than Enron coming off its high is the US dollar. .5200 USDX is in the bag.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')have assured you there is absolutely no practical way to cure the credit and default derivatives problem.
Since this is a meltdown of $20 trillion in credit and default derivatives, do not for a moment think holders of the remaining $550 trillion plus in OTC derivatives are not shaking in their boots as they continue to try and value this worthless garbage via computer models.
As the article in the Wall Street Journal properly suggests, only a miracle tomorrow that takes home prices back to the high and makes all in-arrears mortgages pay up, there is no hope of a reversal of today’s critical problems.
As we discussed yesterday the Fed’s $200 billion plan (not new) of accepting collateral at full value that has no value is seen as useless unless you are a bank falling off a cliff. Even then it is nothing compared to the entire size of the problem.
The Formula is coming into its own and is the major means by which the US dollar will find .5200 on the USDX.
$1000itus does not have long legs. It will assuredly be taken out, after which $1024 to $1050 becomes another temporary challenge.
Gold is going to $1650.
Gold will not come down as it did in 1980 but this time trade around a fulcrum price because of the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio, modernized and revitalized.
This is not convertibility. This is not an automatic control of interest rates. This is not a gold backed dollar. It is connected to a measure of liquidity.
Precious metals shares of all kinds and varieties will perform in this generational bull market in excess of gold regardless of naked short sales, hedge funds and over trading by the gold community. The latter is the major reason why holders are frustrated.
I am intrigued by he's suggestions about some quasi gold certificate standard that is supposed to fix up the US balance sheet issue.
According to Jim it would cap the gold price but at a min level of $1650, possibly higher and stop it from dropping like a rock.
Funny thing was that this type of certificate has been mentioned in a couple of blogs unrelated to Jim and I heard that it was in an article from/via Dow Jones(!?).
Let's throw in this one as well from the other day.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ear Friends,
The Federal Reserve action today formalizes what has been the policy of the Fed from almost day one of the visibility of the credit and default derivative meltdown and credit market lockup.
What is occurring is THE MONETIZATION OF BANKRUPTCY.
The predictable result of monetizing bankruptcy is a significant increase in inflation and a sharply lower dollar.
The result of a sharply lower dollar is sharply higher gold regardless of the dress up process being applied to the US dollar and gold today. The dress up is to prevent a stinging rebuff for the Federal Reserve paying a FARCE price for bankrupt derivative packages purely to keep the banks that are almost all on the edge solvent.
This action speaks negatively for 30 year US Treasury bonds.
What needs to be understood is that there are more than $20 trillion dollars worth of credit and default derivatives out there.
The next key point is that nominal value of this over $20 trillion of credit and default derivatives becomes full value when the derivative fails to perform.
This comes on a modest capital injection into a bond guarantee company that facilitates pinning a tin AAA debt rating heart on them; something that is a total fallacy.
The problem at the heart of the deteriorating credit lockup situation is OTC credit and default derivatives that have failed to perform.
The inviting conclusion then is that $200 billion is as pimple on the ass of an elephant.
Nobody in his or her right mind wishes to see what is coming in 2011. It approaches the “Day After” and “Mad Max” in a financial sense.
The only protection is hard assets of any type, shares or kind (preferably not US companies), and the Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio, modernized and revitalized.
This time gold is not going to crater after achieving its max market valuation. That nullifies every top caller from $248 to middle-late 2011 without exception as well as those now so inclined. This will make mining companies very attractive businesses.
Respectfully yours,
Jim