[oilluber]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ell April crude oil at 9970 - stop 10130.
We're short March heating oil from apprx 270 - stop 280. If you're not stopped, roll to April MOC with a 300 point stop.
Buy April RBOB at 258 - stop 256.
Buy April natural gas at 850 - stop 840.

[pup55]

Phil rolled out of his March HO position at 2.77, so his net loss is $3124. His total for those four trades is -$8124.
I actually kind of like the crude oil trade. The plan is to get stopped in at just below 100, have the market top out at about 101, like it has been, then ride it down.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')illingness to go short over a weekend when we have developing turmoil in Iraq and Nigeria.

[oilluber]

These guys are basically doing a coin toss and are trying make it appear that they have a scientific method of predicting the outcome.
Anyone reading more into the short term volatility of oil is dumb. There is no statistical significance no matter how you explain yourself after the fact.

[pup55]

Phil's April Crude Oil short sale was filled this evening at 9970 with a stop at 10130.

short April HO at 274 stop at 304

Natural gas is up another 19 cents, but phil's trade did not get filled.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e're short April crude oil from apprx 9870 - stop 10130.
We're short April heating oil from apprx 27472 - stop 27750.
Buy April RBOB at 25900 - stop 25700.
Buy April natural gas at 870 - stop 860.

[pup55]

Update: Phil is now stopped out on his crude oil trade for a loss of 2.60 per barrel, net of -$2600 on the trade.
His new total: -$11,891
Unless there is news otherwise, what we are now seeing is a short squeeze, which happens from time to time to punish the short sellers like Phil.

[oilluber]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'U')pdate: Phil is now stopped out on his crude oil trade for a loss of 2.60 per barrel, net of -$2600 on the trade.
His new total: -$11,891
Unless there is news otherwise, what we are now seeing is a short squeeze, which happens from time to time to punish the short sellers like Phil.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oilluber', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'U')pdate: Phil is now stopped out on his crude oil trade for a loss of 2.60 per barrel, net of -$2600 on the trade.
His new total: -$11,891
Unless there is news otherwise, what we are now seeing is a short squeeze, which happens from time to time to punish the short sellers like Phil.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')hort April Crude at 9870 stopped 10130
Buy April Crude 10000 stop 9900
Short April heating oil at 27472 stopped 27750
Buy April heating oil 27200 stop 27000
Buy April RBOB at 25800 stop 25700
Buy April Natural gas at 900stop 870!

[oilluber]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')hort April Crude at 9870 stopped 10130
Buy April Crude 10000 stop 9900
Short April heating oil at 27472 stopped 27750
Buy April heating oil 27200 stop 27000
Buy April RBOB at 25800 stop 25700
Buy April Natural gas at 900stop 870!

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'April 2008 100.00 n/a 99.63 100.18 98.91 99.64 +0.36')
Bad news for Phil. His $100 April crude trade was stopped out last night at 99.00 This is what you get when you put your stop too close to the fill price in a crazy market like this. What Phil is forgetting is that when oil is at $25, a $1 stop is a 4% change. When oil is at $100, a $1 stop is a 1% change, and is going to happen all the time. This caused another $1000 loss.
Current total: -$12,891

We are having fun at Phil's expense, but it illustrates a point, which is, you better know what you are doing and have deep pockets if you are going to play this game. Phil is one of the media's talking heads, and is getting his butt kicked, having lost $12K in his last five trades, with an excellent chance to lose even more if and when the HO and NG trades are filled.

I have not gone through is archives, but I would venture that he made a little money after thanksgiving when crude went down into the 80's but for the most part, he has been torched since the moment he went bearish last fall.

Furthermore, the higher this stuff gets, the more chance he is going to have to lose a lot of money even being conservative, for no other reason than that the unpredictable random fluctuations will be stopping him out all the time even if he has the correct trade, because he has to set his stops so close to the market.
This is the very reason I stick to mutual funds and let the "experts" handle this.

[pup55]

Update: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')topped on long April crude oil from apprx 10000 at apprx 9900. Buy April crude oil at 10000 - stop 9800.
Buy April heating oil at 27200 - stop 26900.
Buy April RBOB at 25700 - stop 25600.
We're long April natural gas from apprx 900 - stop 870.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')emand for oil is weak and it is obvious that we are seeing at least some form of demand destruction but as we have seen, rising supply and lower demand does not necessarily translate into lower price. We have gotten beaten up lately by correctly predicting rising supply and weakening demand. What we failed to realize is that rising supply and lower demand does not always translate in to lower price. Larger market forces have rewritten the laws of gravity as commodity price inflationary pressures have over ruled the basic laws of supply in demand. Even with clear signs of demand destruction in the US and some worrying signs of slowing in Japan and even Europe, oil prices have surged along with inventories.

[AlCzervik]

I heard a clip of the this douchenozzle on the radio this morning, and in my sleepy haze, I'm pretty sure he flip-flopped and acknowledged that $100 oil is going to be relatively standard from here on out.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e're long April crude oil from apprx 10000 - stop 9800

[pup55]

Update: Phil took some profits today, raising his crude oil stop to 10130, so a $1300 gain.
His natural gas trade is also still alive, and he is going to make some money on that one.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e're long April crude from apprx 10000 - raise stop to 10130!
Buy April RBOB at 25900 - stop 25600.
Buy April heating oil at 27500 - stop 27200.
We're long April natural gas from apprx 900 - raise stop to 950!

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')topped on long April crude from apprx 10000 at apprx 10130! Buy April crude at 9700 - stop 9600.
Stopped on long April RBOB from apprx 25900 at apprx 25600. Buy April RBOB at 24200 - stop 24000.
Buy April heating oil at 27500 - stop 27200.
Stopped on long April natural gas from apprx 900 at apprx 950!! Buy April natural gas at 907 - stop 890.

[oilluber]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')topped on long April crude from apprx 10000 at apprx 10130! Buy April crude at 9700 - stop 9600.
Stopped on long April RBOB from apprx 25900 at apprx 25600. Buy April RBOB at 24200 - stop 24000.
Buy April heating oil at 27500 - stop 27200.
Stopped on long April natural gas from apprx 900 at apprx 950!! Buy April natural gas at 907 - stop 890.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')uy April crude oil at 9870 - stop 9700.
Sell April RBOB at 27480 - stop 27620.
Buy April heating oil at 28600 - stop 28400.
Buy April Natural gas at 927 - stop 907.

[oilluber]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')uy April crude oil at 9870 - stop 9700.
Sell April RBOB at 27480 - stop 27620.
Buy April heating oil at 28600 - stop 28400.
Buy April Natural gas at 927 - stop 907.