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Re: Another Oil price Record

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Re: Another Record

Postby LastViking » Tue 19 Feb 2008, 19:56:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LastViking', 'T')hey only have to be right "more often" than the Peaksters.


If that's the standard that analysts are held to, then they're clearly failing, and quite miserably, I might add.


Of course, you jest! The first call of the Peak was in 1989. Colin Campbell declared that the All Liquids peak was occurring "now" and would never exceed this year's 65.8 mb/d production.

Someone in the Peakster "community" (code for cult) has repeated this declaration annually since 1989:

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Y2k 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

And in January, Matt Simmons took his turn and declared 2007 as THE Peak :lol:

Back when, it took about 5 minutes for the MSM to click the ignore button.
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Re: Another Record

Postby DantesPeak » Tue 19 Feb 2008, 20:03:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LastViking', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LastViking', 'T')hey only have to be right "more often" than the Peaksters.


If that's the standard that analysts are held to, then they're clearly failing, and quite miserably, I might add.


Of course, you jest! The first call of the Peak was in 1989. Colin Campbell declared that the All Liquids peak was occurring "now" and would never exceed this year's 65.8 mb/d production.

Someone in the Peakster "community" (code for cult) has repeated this declaration annually since 1989:

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Y2k 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

And in January, Matt Simmons took his turn and declared 2007 as THE Peak :lol:

Back when, it took about 5 minutes for the MSM to click the ignore button.



So what's your prediction as to prices and supply? A simple one sentence answer will suffice.
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Re: Another Record

Postby LastViking » Tue 19 Feb 2008, 20:04:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LastViking', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', '[')url=http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_leuffer/leuffer200411300840.asp]Where oil will go[/url] as told in 2004.


2004. A good year. Do you also remember:

Peak Oil: 80 mb/d in 2006
ASPO Newsletter #43 July/2004
Depletion Model Tables


What price did ASPO predict in that report?


Ah, but that comment underscores the Peaksters' lack of perspective on this (PO) issue. Peak Oil implies decreasing supply in future years and all the ramifications surrounding that; and I don't mean the dire MadMax environment that also taints the Peakster image. The consequences of Peak Oil will require policy makers to ration supply and declare priority sectors. Not crisis stuff, but important none the less.

And on this subject, the Peaksters have made 19 errors. Next year will be the 20 anniversary of rotten calls.

In context, your issue of "price calls" is laughable. Energy is 4% of the CPI. Who cares about price. Nobody is hurting yet. Therefore, your pointing to bad price calls is a insignigicant to say the least.
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Re: Another Record

Postby emersonbiggins » Tue 19 Feb 2008, 20:11:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LastViking', '
')Back when, it took about 5 minutes for the MSM to click the ignore button.


Nice red herring, but it still doesn't explain why Yergin's failed string of optimistic predictions are taken seriously by the MSM. In fact, the only thing that makes sense is that the MSM always likes a sunshine pumper, and Yergin is the biggest of them all.
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Re: Another Record

Postby LastViking » Tue 19 Feb 2008, 20:12:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'S')o what's your prediction as to prices and supply? A simple one sentence answer will suffice.


Fortunately, I am semi-retired from that game.
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Re: Another Record

Postby Valdemar » Tue 19 Feb 2008, 20:22:05

The whole argument is a red herring. "But look, you peak oilers failed in predicting too!" never mind that the trend is more inclined to our model, than the cornucopian one.

It's sad that analysts whose salary depends on predicting this sort of thing are no better than people on the Internet who consider oil collapse a bit of a hobby.
"Nothing survives. Not your parents. Not your children. Not even stars."
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Re: Another Record

Postby LastViking » Tue 19 Feb 2008, 20:53:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'y')ou were in the 'game,' are retired and have all the time in the world etc. and yet you do not the wherewithal to respond to this simple question and make a casual prediction?


My interest is presently in climate change related economics. We recently left Valdez after witnessing what is the world's fastest growing glacier past the Canadian border.

One gem that you can take to the bank is that in 2008, Saudi crude production will smash its annual, quarter and Feb-2006 record(s) established after Katrina hit the Gulf coast.
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Re: Another Record

Postby something_awfull » Tue 19 Feb 2008, 20:53:59

Crude collapses below $100 to $99.73. :twisted:
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Re: Another Record

Postby DantesPeak » Tue 19 Feb 2008, 21:30:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LastViking', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'y')ou were in the 'game,' are retired and have all the time in the world etc. and yet you do not the wherewithal to respond to this simple question and make a casual prediction?


My interest is presently in climate change related economics. We recently left Valdez after witnessing what is the world's fastest growing glacier past the Canadian border.

One gem that you can take to the bank is that in 2008, Saudi crude production will smash its annual, quarter and Feb-2006 record(s) established after Katrina hit the Gulf coast.


According to the EIA, the Saudis peaked out at 9.6 mbpd in the second and third quarters of 2005 - before Katrina.

However the Saudis do have unused capacity to produce some heavy crude contaminated with heavy metals if desired, although there are not many refineries that could presently use that type of oil.

My guess is that at best they will go up to 9.2 mbpd for any one month in 2008, 9.1 for one quarter, but will average less than 9.0 mbpd for the year. They may do better than 2007, but not by much. Those are my optimistic estimates.

My December 31, 2007 price predictions for 2008 are:
High $146 Low $78 Close $122
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Re: Another Record

Postby AirlinePilot » Tue 19 Feb 2008, 21:57:57

I think I predicted that this sort of thing was going to happen. As we stumble along with very high oil prices (which by the way is zero surprise to us here at PO) there will be more and more folks who start googling about oil, price, and production. Especially as we pass 100$/bbl

It takes a while for folks who are willing to see whats going on. The denial factor I've talked about for over a year now will rear itself regularly and vehemently right here in these forums.

I detect an upward trend in cornies already. LastViking is a prime example.

Cult? heh, heh, silly person. Everyone just try and be gentle with the newbs. ;)
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Re: Another Record

Postby Zardoz » Tue 19 Feb 2008, 22:35:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'H')eh, heh, silly person. Everyone just try and be gentle with the newbs.

Nope. Anybody who can't grasp the concept of finite resources is fair game. Anybody who thinks we're going to get away with having seven or eight or nine billion people on this planet deserves our scorn. Anybody who thinks our wholesale destruction of the biosphere is acceptable should be treated like the cretin they must be.
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: Another Record

Postby shortonoil » Tue 19 Feb 2008, 22:45:42

AirlinePilot said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Cult? heh, heh, silly person. Everyone just try and be gentle with the newbs.


Airplane, that’s really hard to do sometimes. After listening to a pile of uninformed, driveling, misleading garbage that they picked up from some bought and paid for, brain dead talking head on the boob tube, all you want to do is scream and stake them out on a hill of fire ants.

I’ll try........ I really will........... I promise!
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Re: Another Record

Postby AirlinePilot » Tue 19 Feb 2008, 23:45:02

Well, to be truthful for a good while I thought this place and a few others were typical internet whacko sites. I was wrong. Some will never see it. Others will want to scream and shout and try desperately to hold on to what they wish will happen.

How we treat them in here makes a difference I think. We can choose to educate or berate. There's more cred with the educational route I think. Ultimately it means more folks aware of the problem which cant be a bad thing.
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Re: Another Record

Postby frankthetank » Wed 20 Feb 2008, 01:06:25

Sure looks like $90 is the new bottom.

I think if you step back and look at the entire picture, its pretty obvious we are heading for uncharted waters. There will always be people who deny it while the world is falling apart in front of their eyes, I'm related to one or two of them! I have no idea where we'll be 5 years ago, but i do have a feeling my wallet will be a lot lighter.

Lets hope the upcoming hurricane season is quiet.
lawns should be outlawed.
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Re: Another Record

Postby emersonbiggins » Wed 20 Feb 2008, 01:21:40

I agree re: the $90/floor. The current runup may well be a bubble, considering that liquid positions are frantically trying to find a safe haven, and that might as well be commodities right now (certainly not SIVs, bonds, real estate, ha!).
Last edited by emersonbiggins on Wed 20 Feb 2008, 01:23:08, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Another Record

Postby Revi » Wed 20 Feb 2008, 01:21:55

Heating oil is back up again too. And the heating season is going to be ending pretty soon (except here in Maine). We are entering uncharted waters, and there are icebergs.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Another Record

Postby joewp » Wed 20 Feb 2008, 02:24:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'H')eating oil is back up again too. And the heating season is going to be ending pretty soon (except here in Maine). We are entering uncharted waters, and there are icebergs.


Heating oil is also diesel fuel. Planting season is coming up for the farmers. The use lots of diesel. Just another push for higher and higher food prices.
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Re: Another Record

Postby Dan1195 » Wed 20 Feb 2008, 14:12:33

It's back over $100 again into record territory, just saw $100.28 on CNBC.
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Re: Another Record

Postby emersonbiggins » Wed 20 Feb 2008, 14:14:22

$100.30, per Bloomberg Radio.
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

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