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TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good...

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good...

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 15 Feb 2008, 23:55:32

LastViking said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es, we know. Someone has reminded us almost every day since the Spring 2001. But, thank you anyway...


Unfortunately it doesn’t appear that Congress, the Executive Branch or the Treasury Department has taken much notice. Why don’t you pop over there and clue them in?
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Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good...

Unread postby eastbay » Sat 16 Feb 2008, 00:23:36

We really don't know where destruction will show up or at what price threshold. But, your POV that it will be american drivers has very poor foundations based on the recent quadrupling of oil prices.

LV,

I don't recall mentioning anything about 'American roads.' I mentioned, 'cars parked in driveways and along roads', to mean 'everywhere.' I could have been clearer (as usual), but certainly didn't mean to suggest less car use would only occur in the USA or solely in any other country which, of course, is ridiculous.

Less car use will be happening everywhere... AKA: demand destruction... or 'theoretical demand unmet', if you prefer to get fancy.
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Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good...

Unread postby eastbay » Sat 16 Feb 2008, 00:28:22

Actually it was more than a 'quadrupling... it was more like a nine fold increase... but regardless, it reminds me of the camel whose load was increased by a factor of four yet he continued walking as if no weight had been added.

Some might therefore that since there was no ill effect from a quadrupling, therefore more weight can be added onto the camel indefinitely.

We'll soon find out how much our camel can hold.
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Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good...

Unread postby dinopello » Sat 16 Feb 2008, 01:56:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'O')il demand is very inelastic in the short term, but rather elastic in the longer term.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'T')here is no such thing as demand, only demand at a certain price. This is fundamental.


They don't know about demand elasticity in Sweden?

Of course we do. Your point being?


Being is the point. Or, at least one of them. The ultimate demand destruction. But, that's what makes the 'long term' elastic :wink: Or, at least we hope it is the long term 8O

Less beings, less demand.
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Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good...

Unread postby yesplease » Sat 16 Feb 2008, 03:49:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'H')ere's how I envision theoretical demand exceeding actual supply from a simple non-economist and lay perspective:

10 cars; gas for 8.

Is that helpful?
It's certainly simple! Whether it's helpful or not depends on how people behave. If nobody changes anything in the next half decade, be it driving habits/vehicle use/miles driven/economic activity/etc, and TOD's depletion figures are correct, it may very well be...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1')0 cars; gas for 8.

That being said, since people and circumstances tend to change, I doubt it'll pan out like that. :P
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good...

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 16 Feb 2008, 12:42:07

LastViking said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')nergy is about 4% of the CPI.


You may have been drinking too much of the government issued Kool Aid. Energy is $1.2 trillion of our GDP, and coal, oil and NG almost doubled last year and they are 83% of that $1.2 trillion. 4% goes into the fantasy number category.
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Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good...

Unread postby LastViking » Sat 16 Feb 2008, 19:01:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]LastViking said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')nergy is about 4% of the CPI.


You may have been drinking too much of the government issued Kool Aid. Energy is $1.2 trillion of our GDP, and coal, oil and NG almost doubled last year and they are 83% of that $1.2 trillion. 4% goes into the fantasy number category.


Sorry, but CPI has no correlation with GDP.
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Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good...

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 17 Feb 2008, 12:54:21

LastViking said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')orry, but CPI has no correlation with GDP.


CPI is an index of inflation. Its true measure is the velocity of money. VM has a great deal to do with the GDP. Increase the money supply for a fixed level of goods and services and you have increased the velocity of money.

We have a fixed level of energy and an increasing supply of money. Thus the GDP increases through inflation. To say that GDP is disconnected from the money supply is absurd. To say that CPI is disconnected from GDP is absurd.
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Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good...

Unread postby eastbay » Sun 17 Feb 2008, 13:00:07

Air has no correlation with breathing.
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Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good...

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 17 Feb 2008, 13:34:33

eastbay said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ir has no correlation with breathing.


Nicely put! LOL
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Re: TOD's oil production forecast: Not so good...

Unread postby LastViking » Sun 17 Feb 2008, 19:19:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]LastViking said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')orry, but CPI has no correlation with GDP.


CPI is an index of inflation. Its true measure is the velocity of money. VM has a great deal to do with the GDP. Increase the money supply for a fixed level of goods and services and you have increased the velocity of money.

We have a fixed level of energy and an increasing supply of money. Thus the GDP increases through inflation. To say that GDP is disconnected from the money supply is absurd. To say that CPI is disconnected from GDP is absurd.


Simply put, your logic is warped and ludicrous. Nobody has cared about nominal GDP for three decades. Real GDP, the common metric, is already adjusted for inflation.

For the last five years, we have monitored MZM data for money supply and as such, M3 has been discontinued as a weekly release but remains available for study via the quarterlies. You have no idea of what you are babbling on about. But then, neither does Ron Paul...
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