[oilluber]

he is bearish on oil, it seems that these so called experts on the oil industry are futures traders with about as much knowledge than the avg joe.
Phil is expecting a big increase in supply soon. I've been following this guy for the past few years, and he has been correct, but does he really have the credentials to be a TV expert ??

I get a big laugh that the price of oil is determined by these speculators/traders and I hope they burn their arse someday.

The oil companies that I own and others that I have followed are having a tough time replacing diminishing reserves. Where is all this extra supply going to come from ??
What about USD devaluation ??? OIl demand growth from emerging markets and oil exporting countries ??

When BOONE PICKENS , matt simmons, Henry Groppe( also the locals here PUPP and DANTES) make a comment , I listen.
But all the others are just crap.
Why they put these guys on TV is mind boggling, as they do not have expertese in the field.

[pup55]

Phil Flynn Quotes from Thinkexist

Sounds like it is time to start recording some public statements for future reference.

[DantesPeak]

Flynn said almost a month ago that oil would never pass $100 without a major political crisis. Despite oil ringing the register at $100 without any extremely huge political events occurring today, Flynn is still negative on oil:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')lynn: Oil prices should move down from $100 peak
"If you look at the numbers today, the summer driving season looks really scary," says Alaron Trading's Phil Flynn of oil's peak at $100. "But the good news for the drivers is the summer driving season is a few months away." Flynn thinks oil will step back from these levels to the $80 per barrel range by then. "I think the big determining factor will be the weather over the next few weeks," he says. Flynn also thinks the geopolitical concerns that drove oil prices to this level, "as bad as they are, they haven't really cost us a drop of oil."

[oilluber]

this guys just a trader, has no macro-economic background on oil, has no expertese in the petro industry, the less you know, the more bold and cocky you get.
Here on the board, the real experts Pupp and Dantes always remain wary of their own assumptions and predictions........ as they scientifically deduce all free,available data on the oil market. This is as close to unpaid, free, hard analysis as you are going to get on the internet.
Why subscribe to Flynn ??

[DantesPeak]

Granted Flynn may be quite a short term oil trader, and probably could make a better prediction than I over how oil will move over the next trading day.
But after bashing peak oil for some time, Flynn has suddenly come close to embarcing peak oil - as if he knew all along what we've been saying here was correct.

I don't expect an apology from him now about how he ridiculed PO before, nor one about the three or more times he plagerized my posts here, but it would be nice if he said he was wrong before.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he larger issue of course, is the big picture peak oil stuff. Does a recession really matter if we are running out of oil? With all the bullish fundamentals that have driven oil for the last 5 years, we only added roughly 10 dollars to the highs for oil a year. That was in the backdrop of a growing and expanding economy. Now we add 30 into a slowing economy! The only thing that can explain it is either we are seeing the peak oil production along with the sudden realization by the masses that we are running out of oil or more likely; it’s the bulls on steroids! Or maybe, just maybe, this is a last desperate attempt to take out a $100 a barrel before we crash into the sixties!

[pup55]

Phil turned bearish in December and all of his predictions for the year were for a decline. As of the 14th he was still short the entire complex.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')We're short March crude oil from apprx 9350 - stop 9450!
We're short March RBOB from apprx 24000 - stop 24500.
Sell March heating oil at 270 - stop 280.
Sell March natural gas at 880 - stop 903.

[oilluber]

thanks pupp for your post.
As I've mentioned before, even if Flynn is majestic as Errol Flynn the great actor..... it is a tough job trying to trade the daily volatility as the stops get hit. Even a God like Flynn cannot stop from his ass getting spanked
here and there.

[BigTex]

Maybe after Flynn goes broke Steve Forbes will give him a job writing articles about how $40 a barrel oil is just around the corner.

[pup55]

Note: I believe Phil was stopped out on three of the four of the trades he recommended above. He is still alive on HO.
This has cost his followers the following amount of money:
Crude oil: $1000
RBOB $2400
HO still alive for now, but going to be $4800 when it finally is stopped out in a day or so.
NG :$2300

$5400 total

[DantesPeak]

Well Flynn seems to have conveniently forgotten that he said oil will never pass a $100 without a major political crisis. There is no major crisis now with oil over $100, at least none greatly more significant than skirmishes with Iran, for example, over the last few months.
While flirting with the concept of PO, he seems to have backed off embracing it - and attributes price gains to emotional forces.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Energy Report Ode to $100 a barrel
Wed, Feb 20 2008, 14:45 GMT by Phil Flynn
Alaron
Ode to $100 barrel oil: Why did oil go to one hundred dollar barrel? Well let me count the ways. There was no single event that accounted for yesterday historic move and yet it was a beautiful illustration of and lesson in market dynamics. In other words when the bull is raging you do not want to stand in front of it. Price is no object when it comes to a raging bull. This is especially true in the oil market where the fine line between over supply and under supply is getting finer every day.
The run-up in oil is not about current supply but about the perceived threat to future supply. Whether it's OPEC greedily talking about cutting production or empty threats of Venezuela cutting off supply it is obvious that this market is paranoid about less oil even in a slowing economy.

[oilluber]

he shorted oil back few months ago, he considers himself an astute short term and long term trader.
He has been wrong on the short term . wrong as in betting short and getting stopped.... the truth is simple.

No need for elaborate explanation. There is a simple explanation, its in the english dictionary.
So is he now going to bet the farm and short oil at 100 again? He has less chips to play with this time.

[BigTex]

Wait a second, I do know who that guy is.......

[joeltrout]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oilluber', 't')his guys just a trader, has no macro-economic background on oil, has no expertese inthe petro industry, the less you know, the more bold and cocky you get.

[oilluber]

NOW, even Pickens is short oil.(even Groppe is bearish)
Who do I believe ??
The billionaires with all the data available that money can buy or the humble Pupp and Dantes, with their scientific assessment of the future for crude based on free, cheap data ??
I am puzzled. If someone put a gun to my head, I have to go with Pupp and Dantes.
So I ain't selling one share of my oil stocks.

[oilluber]

``Oil is going to back off here in the second quarter,'' billionaire hedge-fund manager Boone Pickens said in an interview on CNBC. ``It'll be back above $100 in the second half.''

Pickens, the founder and chairman of Dallas-based BP Capital LLC, told CNBC that he was short on both crude oil and natural gas. He didn't provide additional information on his positions. A short is a bet that prices will decline.

[joeltrout]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oilluber', 'N')OW, even Pickens is short oil.(even Groppe is bearish)

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oilluber', '"')Oil is going to back off here in the second quarter,'' billionaire hedge-fund manager Boone Pickens said in an interview on CNBC. "It'll be back above $100 in the second half.''
Pickens, the founder and chairman of Dallas-based BP Capital LLC, told CNBC that he was short on both crude oil and natural gas. He didn't provide additional information on his positions. A short is a bet that prices will decline.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ell April crude oil at 9970 - stop 10130.
We're short March heating oil from apprx 270 - stop 280. If you're not stopped, roll to April MOC with a 300 point stop.
Buy April RBOB at 258 - stop 256.
Buy April natural gas at 850 - stop 840.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')hil ... Still hanging in there on his HO trade, but short crude.

[evilgenius]

I think Pickens is short on oil because of recession fears. I don't believe he sees supply picking up. I don't think he believes that demand will hold off long enough for new projects to catch up with demand and make the imbalance right itself after the recession is over either. I listened to him and what he said didn't sound too pleasing. Mostly he wanted to warn people that they had better get ready for the wind and solar power game. I am keen to watch stocks like the plummetting Zoltech (zolt) that are tied to the wind energy future. I am not ready to consider buying just yet but I am ready to believe that a company like that could soon be in a position to quit losing money. It would be nice to see some of the alt energy plays with at least a P/E to show for themselves.