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THE US Trade Gap Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Sat 16 Feb 2008, 02:32:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')
US consumers will be worse off but the country as a whole will be more fiscally stable.


What a disconnection with reality. What is the country "as a whole" but the sum of the US citizens? (I refuse to use the dehumanizing term "consumer") This is so typical of economist's ivory tower thinking. Some people "worse off" is fine, as long as it's not them...


If you spend 105% of your income, you will accumulate lots of debt but in terms of day-to-day consumption, feel great.

Then if you cut down on the credit cards and spend only 95% of your income (allowing you to pay off the debt over time and build up savings), your day-to-day consumption suffers. However, your long term fiscal stability has improved.

The only way out of this whole is less spending and more saving. This cannot be accomplished without a decrease in consumer spending.

So yes, US consumers will be worse off but the country's long term economic health will be improved.
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby FloridaGirl » Sat 16 Feb 2008, 02:46:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')S consumers will be worse off but the country as a whole will be more fiscally stable.


How can the country as a whole be more stable if it just went $711.6 billion more in debt?
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby joewp » Sat 16 Feb 2008, 02:50:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')If you spend 105% of your income, you will accumulate lots of debt but in terms of day-to-day consumption, feel great.

Then if you cut down on the credit cards and spend only 95% of your income (allowing you to pay off the debt over time and build up savings), your day-to-day consumption suffers. However, your long term fiscal stability has improved.

The only way out of this whole is less spending and more saving. This cannot be accomplished without a decrease in consumer spending.

So yes, US consumers will be worse off but the country's long term economic health will be improved.


Like I said, ivory tower ramblings. When people are spending 105% of their income on necessary goods like food and heat, then cutting back will entail suffering and possible death. I guess that's easy to overlook when you refer to people as "consumers", like they're some kind of automatons not related to your species. Unfortunately, people do exist, and people are hurting now. Increased prices for basics like food and energy are going to hurt more and more people, and eventually you. Your hand waving and simplistic scenarios like you posit above don't change that fact.

Edit to add:
Here's an example of "less spending" with no savings at all.
Elderly struggle to pay their bills
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')With costs of health care, housing, energy, transportation and food on the rise, low- and moderate-income seniors find themselves in a bind.

Many haven't saved enough to enjoy their older years without financial worry, and they aren't poor enough to qualify for government assistance programs.

"The only thing I get for help is my Medicare," said Ashbrook, referring to the federal program that provides health coverage to those 65 and over and some others. "Other than that, they say my income is too much. I get a little over $800 a month [from Social Security]. That seems like a lot of money until you start paying it out."

Ashbrook's story is all too common, experts say.

"Those older Americans on fixed incomes, their incomes just aren't increasing to keep up with the skyrocketing costs of health care, utilities and, in some cases, gasoline," said Tiffany Lundquist, a spokeswoman for Maryland's chapter of AARP.

Social Security payments increase annually by about 2.3 percent to keep up with rising costs of living, Lundquist said. At the same time, however, Medicare premiums are going up an average of 3.1 percent.

Other rising costs
And seniors are being hit by other increased living costs: soaring prescription drug costs (only some of which are covered by Medicare's drug benefit, leaving many seniors to pay thousands of dollars out of pocket); gasoline prices hovering about $3 a gallon; and a 72 percent Baltimore Gas and Electric Co. rate increase last year.

"And then ... your utility bills are going up another 5 percent this year," Lundquist said. "So you can begin to see the problem."

Since 2002, the number of families with at least one person 60 or older that applied for help from the state with their home heating costs has gone up by 53.8 percent, said Ralph Markus, acting director of the state Department of Human Resources' Office of Home Energy Programs.

"We see a lot of people who are on Social Security, some of them who get only $600 or $700 a month," Markus said. "It's amazing how many we see at that level. If that's your only income, which it is for a lot of people, that's very, very tough to pay all your bills."


Why don't you tell Ms. Ashbrook about your theory on how she should suffer some for the country's long term economic health?
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby Euric » Sat 16 Feb 2008, 03:37:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')This likely means that the US will be able to sustain higher energy prices without risking a complete dollar collapse because its exports are growing faster than its non-oil imports.

US consumers will be worse off but the country as a whole will be more fiscally stable.


What exports are increasing? The resale of goods made in China? American unemployment is rising and the US economy is receding. Good paying jobs with good benefits are continuing to be exported.

The US consumer is worse off because he can't maintain his American dream in an 8~10 $/h job with no or little benefits. Since credit is now harder to obtain, the consumer has no choice but to cut back.

Only when the US economy runs a surplus and the American worker makes more then he needs will there be fiscal stability in the US and a danger to the dollar will be averted, not before.
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby LoneSnark » Sat 16 Feb 2008, 11:04:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')nly when the US economy runs a surplus and the American worker makes more then he needs

The American worker has earned more than he needs every year since the 19th century. Or is it your assertion that Americans need their TVs, big cars, and Playstation 3s?

Americans do not have trouble making ends meet because of the high cost of living, but the cost of living high.

That said, what is true for most Americans is not true for all. Some elderly and uneducated are truely suffering, and it is up to the rest of us to help them however we can. Contact your local charities to see how.
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sat 16 Feb 2008, 11:18:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')
US consumers will be worse off but the country as a whole will be more fiscally stable.


What a disconnection with reality. What is the country "as a whole" but the sum of the US citizens? (I refuse to use the dehumanizing term "consumer") This is so typical of economist's ivory tower thinking. Some people "worse off" is fine, as long as it's not them...


If you spend 105% of your income, you will accumulate lots of debt but in terms of day-to-day consumption, feel great.

Then if you cut down on the credit cards and spend only 95% of your income (allowing you to pay off the debt over time and build up savings), your day-to-day consumption suffers. However, your long term fiscal stability has improved.

The only way out of this whole is less spending and more saving. This cannot be accomplished without a decrease in consumer spending.

So yes, US consumers will be worse off but the country's long term economic health will be improved.


But the deficiet is decreasing, we are accumulating debt less fast, not paying it back neither are we saving for a rainy day. We are just spending 104% (to use your example) of our income instead of 105%.

I guess it is still good news but more akin to "Your cancer is not spreading as fast as it was" than "the cancer is in remission." In the former there is the hope of not dying as quickly (but maybe more painfuflly) in the latter there is hope to see your kids grow up and have children of their own.
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby Gerben » Sat 16 Feb 2008, 12:08:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I')f you spend 105% of your income, you will accumulate lots of debt but in terms of day-to-day consumption, feel great.

But the deficiet is decreasing, we are accumulating debt less fast, not paying it back neither are we saving for a rainy day. We are just spending 104% (to use your example) of our income instead of 105%.

I guess it is still good news but more akin to "Your cancer is not spreading as fast as it was" than "the cancer is in remission." In the former there is the hope of not dying as quickly (but maybe more painfuflly) in the latter there is hope to see your kids grow up and have children of their own.

If the deficit was 5% (I didn't bother to look up how much it is), then this mighty 6,2% decrease has reduced it to 4,69%. If they keep reducing it by the same amount, it would take 17 years before there is no more deficit. 6,2% decrease is a small step in the right direction, but it's way too early to be triomphant.
Last edited by Gerben on Sat 16 Feb 2008, 16:41:33, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby Euric » Sat 16 Feb 2008, 15:01:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')nly when the US economy runs a surplus and the American worker makes more then he needs

The American worker has earned more than he needs every year since the 19th century. Or is it your assertion that Americans need their TVs, big cars, and Playstation 3s?

Americans do not have trouble making ends meet because of the high cost of living, but the cost of living high.

That said, what is true for most Americans is not true for all. Some elderly and uneducated are truely suffering, and it is up to the rest of us to help them however we can. Contact your local charities to see how.


But living high is what the US is all about. It's the American dream to have what others in the world can only dream of having. Take the high living away and the US is just another 3-rd world country.
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby roccman » Sat 16 Feb 2008, 15:14:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')
US consumers will be worse off but the country as a whole will be more fiscally stable.


Huh?

The global economy is based soley on the spending habit of americans.

This statement makes ZERO sense to me.
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby ALBY » Sat 16 Feb 2008, 15:27:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joe wp', ' ')When people are spending 105% of their income on necessary goods like food and heat, then cutting back will entail suffering and possible death


LOL at the hyperbole.

before americans starve or die of exposure, maybe they they will have to cut their cable bill, turn off their cell phones, cancel their broadband, trade in their cadillac escalade, stop eating at mcbarfles, stop gambling at indian casinos, give up their $3 lattes and quit their health club.

:lol:
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby joewp » Sat 16 Feb 2008, 20:32:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ALBY', '
')before americans starve or die of exposure, maybe they they will have to cut their cable bill, turn off their cell phones, cancel their broadband, trade in their cadillac escalade, stop eating at mcbarfles, stop gambling at indian casinos, give up their $3 lattes and quit their health club.

:lol:


Your profile says you live in Baltimore, what a coincidence! The article I posted above is from the Baltimore Sun. You can go right down and tell Ms. Ashbrook to cut out the cable and cell phone.

You can tell her to turn the heat down to 40 and east Acme brand cat food too. That'll help the economy, huh?

Of course, if Americans in general took all your suggestions, that would crash the economy more certainly than the "sub-prime" crisis. Half the country would lose their jobs and end up dying of starvation or exposure anyway. Obviously you don't think through your comments.
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby ALBY » Sat 16 Feb 2008, 21:04:46

you make me laugh joe wp.

you display some decidely feminine forensic techniques.

[smilie=adios.gif]
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby Fiddlerdave » Sun 17 Feb 2008, 07:51:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ALBY', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joe wp', ' ')When people are spending 105% of their income on necessary goods like food and heat, then cutting back will entail suffering and possible death


LOL at the hyperbole.

before americans starve or die of exposure, maybe they they will have to cut their cable bill, turn off their cell phones, cancel their broadband, trade in their cadillac escalade, stop eating at mcbarfles, stop gambling at indian casinos, give up their $3 lattes and quit their health club.

:lol:
There are quite a few Americans who, even if they ever did any of things, have already given them up. Like the neatly dressed elderly in the nearby reasonably nice retiremnet condos who are now going though my apartment trash bin 3 times a day (different people each time). This phenomonon has started and grown in the last two years, and I consider it a very bad sign.
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby SteinarN » Sun 17 Feb 2008, 09:13:54

The US like the rest of the western industrialized world could easily cut their spending by a large percentage when looking at a country as a whole. However not every citizen could do that without suffering. But the 50% at the top of income could do that easily.

You can have a very good life without a house in excess of several thousand ft2, new suvs, expensive holidays, new x-boxes, and an incredible number of other innecesities.

The top 50% in the US is probably responsible for som 70-80% of the total consumtion. If they reduced their consumtion with 15% as they easily could do the consumtion in US as a whole would be reduced with 11%. (15% of 75) The lowest 50% wouldnt have to reduce their consumtion and no one would have to suffer more than they already do. Many people would loose their jobs, but they could instead get new jobs producing goods for export. And the trade deficit would be turned to a surplus.

This is what every nation have to do in the long run. No one can have a trade deficit for infinite time. Its no way around it. Better start doing it soner than later.
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby sjn » Sun 17 Feb 2008, 10:53:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SteinarN', 'T')he US like the rest of the western industrialized world could easily cut their spending by a large percentage when looking at a country as a whole. However not every citizen could do that without suffering. But the 50% at the top of income could do that easily.

You can have a very good life without a house in excess of several thousand ft2, new suvs, expensive holidays, new x-boxes, and an incredible number of other innecesities.

The top 50% in the US is probably responsible for som 70-80% of the total consumtion. If they reduced their consumtion with 15% as they easily could do the consumtion in US as a whole would be reduced with 11%. (15% of 75) The lowest 50% wouldnt have to reduce their consumtion and no one would have to suffer more than they already do. Many people would loose their jobs, but they could instead get new jobs producing goods for export. And the trade deficit would be turned to a surplus.

This is what every nation have to do in the long run. No one can have a trade deficit for infinite time. Its no way around it. Better start doing it soner than later.


Sure that's likely to happen... those most financially able to consume cut back while the vulnerable maintain their consumption on wishful thinking. :roll:
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby SteinarN » Sun 17 Feb 2008, 11:05:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', 'S')ure that's likely to happen... those most financially able to consume cut back while the vulnerable maintain their consumption on wishful thinking. :roll:


It has to do with the level on taxes, minimum vages and many other matters controlled by the government. But i agree with you that it probably wont happen, but that isnt because it is economically impossible, but because it is politically impossible to do such tings in the US like raise taxes considerably to the riches people and at least double the minimum vages.
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby Kingcoal » Sun 17 Feb 2008, 12:17:31

I'm not surprised by the figures; stagflation tends to do that. Consumers are spending more on living expenses and less on luxuries. Pretty soon, simply owning and operating an automobile will be a luxury. The world economy is headed for a brick wall because it is based on the many producing frivolous products for the few. Our current economy is based on exporting inflation. The problem is not just with the US, but in the exporters of the world who simply can't go on every year cutting prices. Asia's paradigm of growing market share by undercutting competitors is falling apart. Manufacturing requires a lot of hydrocarbons and as those increase (in cost), eventually it won't matter if they work for free, they still won't be able to cut costs because of rising oil bills. The inflation export machine requires that costs be cut yearly, otherwise it falls apart.

It looks to me as if it is falling apart. What’s next?
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sun 17 Feb 2008, 12:24:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'T')he result is a lower trade deficit DESPITE massively increased oil prices.


Actually accordinig to the Department of Commerce, oil prices only rose 10% last year. In addition, oil imports dropped last year - a trend which can't continue unless the US stays in a permenant recession.

Check out page 27 of the latest trade report and see the prices for yourself:
US Trade in Goods and Services

The US in increasing imports of low quality tar sands goo from Canada, which costs much less than light sweet due to the complex process needed to make it usable.

Also low quality/low price stuff comes from Mexico and Venezuela. Dropping imports from those two in 2008 may have to be made up by higher priced oil.

I expect the real impact of higher oil prices will start to hit the trade deficit very soon and very hard in 2008.
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 18 Feb 2008, 08:02:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')
US consumers will be worse off but the country as a whole will be more fiscally stable.


What a disconnection with reality. What is the country "as a whole" but the sum of the US citizens? (I refuse to use the dehumanizing term "consumer") This is so typical of economist's ivory tower thinking. Some people "worse off" is fine, as long as it's not them...


Joe, Ivory Tower rambling aside, please give us your man in the street view of how to stretch $600-700 per month to cover higher prices for everything we need, when the economy is stagnating, and consumer spending is tapped out while government deficit spending is still increasing, putting further pressure on inflation and taxing the next generation's ability to service that debt. Just give us the answers straight. No sugar coating it. Thanks.
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby LoneSnark » Wed 20 Feb 2008, 13:27:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ure that's likely to happen... those most financially able to consume cut back while the vulnerable maintain their consumption on wishful thinking.

No, they will maintain their basic consumption through the same mechanism they have always used: government handouts and charity.

If you know someone struggling to keep their heat on you are morally obligated to help. In extreme cases resulting in death, failure to assist the obviously in need is a crime, punishable with prison.
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