World Oil Forecasts Including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE - Update Feb 2008
Oh, my:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orld total liquids production (Fig 1) remains on a peak plateau since 2006 and is forecast to fall off this peak plateau in 2009. Increasing numbers of oil experts are forecasting impending peak production plateaus. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the current peak production of 87.2 mbd occurred on January 2008. As long as demand continues increasing then prices will continue increasing.
Although crude oil & lease condensate (C&C) production is forecast to continue declining, the total liquids supply remains on a plateau until 2009 (Fig 1), due to offsetting production increases from natural gas plant liquids (NGPLs), ethanol and XTL (BTL - biomass to liquids, CTL - coal to liquids and GTL - gas to liquids). The main causes for the end of the total liquids plateau in 2009 (Fig 1) are that the C&C production decline rate accelerates to 3%/yr in 2009 (Fig 3) and the production growth from natural gas plant liquids stalls (Fig 15).
Is future total liquids production likely to exceed the current peak of 87.2 mbd on January 2008? It might be possible but it appears unlikely. North Sea production continues to decline. Mexico's production is also in decline. Former USSR production might increase by a small amount. Canada's production should increase slowly but the oil sands are experiencing production constraints and despite claimed reserves of up to 315 Gb (billion barrels), the oil sands will probably produce, at best, a maximum of only 2.5 mbd (million barrels/day). Biofuels production should also continue increasing. Non OPEC total liquids production might increase slowly, assuming that no unexpected disruptions occur.
