[MrBill]

Gold's retracement from $914

I think this break-out took place from $559 after a period of consolidation and made a top at $914. Now that the US dollar is stronger (under $1.4500 today) against the euro I would expect a retracement in gold to $778.40 (0.382R). The minimum retracement (0.236R) would be to $830.20. Alternatively you can measure the break-out from $640 in which case the 0.382R = $809.33. With the global economy catching the US' cold the slowdown will impact demand for gold. As well high food prices also cut into gold purchases in places like Chindia where food inflation is a larger portion of their household budget and CPI basket.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '[')url=http://s230.photobucket.com/albums/ee2/4s4ufun/?action=view&current=gold-1.jpg]Gold's retracement from $914[/url]

I think this break-out took place from $559 after a period of consolidation and made a top at $914. Now that the US dollar is stronger (under $1.4500 today) against the euro I would expect a retracement in gold to $778.40 (0.382R). The minimum retracement (0.236R) would be to $830.20. Alternatively you can measure the break-out from $640 in which case the 0.382R = $809.33. With the global economy catching the US' cold the slowdown will impact demand for gold. As well high food prices also cut into gold purchases in places like Chindia where food inflation is a larger portion of their household budget and CPI basket.

[macman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MC2', 'W')ell, I hate to say I told you so...

GLD - down 1.7 per cent

SLV - down 4.5 per cent

SDS and DXD up 3 per cent or so...

Does this mean the run-up in metals is over? I don't think so, they will probably go higher, as the Fed will cut rates, but this is the kind of thing that can and will happen along the way back to normal prices for these commodities. Gold will settle somewhere around 5 - 600 within a few months or so.

[patience]

Macman,
If I understand all this right, the hyper inflation would have to come from the US govt simply printing FRN's without even the present credit backing of bonds. If the US tried to float an outrageously big bond issue, they'd have a lot of trouble finding buyers for them.

So, I take it you mean totally unbacked fiat, as in Zimbabwe. If they do so, that looks like a long walk off a short pier, where oblivion waits, as we've seen in history.

I do believe that our govt has less morality than my tomcat, where its' citizenry's welfare is concerned. They may do it. I hope not.

[SD_Scott]

Listen to this at 44:00!!


http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/f ... 0126-1.mp3

[SD_Scott]

Sorry for not clarifying. Jim says he received an email from a guy in Saudi Arabia that claimed the saudi's are over reporting their production and that Ghawar is toast( My words) and that the CIA sent simmons over to have a look at things and it was bad. Etc.

[Revi]

Silver is going for 12 times face value now. In 1964 you could get a gallon of gas for a quarter. Now that quarter is worth around $3. Guess how much gas costs now?

Precious metals aren't going to outpace inflation, but they are a store of value in uncertain times.

[Leanan]

Interesting, but is it legit? Anyone can send an e-mail.

"The CIA sent Matt Simmons to the 100 largest oil fields, and he found 705 were in serious decline."

Huh? Did he mean the largest 1,000?

And how would Simmons find out if they were in decline or not?

[SD_Scott]

I doubt Jim would float that if it was crap. Simmons has been on FSN many times. If true this is a bombshell.

Fields probably have many wells.

[macman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'S')ilver is going for 12 times face value now. In 1964 you could get a gallon of gas for a quarter. Now that quarter is worth around $3. Guess how much gas costs now?

Precious metals aren't going to outpace inflation, but they are a store of value in uncertain times.

[sittinguy]

Bush and the boys,, are setting it up so that WHATEVER Hillary does, it will screw things up, and send us fully into the reccesion that we are skirting right now.
Inflation is the only outcome I can see.
How can deflation happen when we are on the top of the bell curve now. We may see some demand go down for a while to hold off the inevitable.

the world is starting to figure out that they will survive alot better than they thought if the US goes down.

[MC2]

Hyper-inflationists should be buying index funds on the Dow, S&P, etc., in lieu of PMs. For their scenario to work out, we have to be looking at Dow 25000, etc. Much more money to be made by pursuing that tack.

But, it won't happen, because THEY CANNOT INFLATE! There's no bubble to replace the last, final one. Even oil will be headed down a good bit, folks, hard as that may be to believe.

You don't have to wait very long now to see this for yourselves. Probably by the end of 2008, gold will be back down under 700. Maybe a lot sooner, and a lot farther, it just depends on how fast this unwinds. The only wild card is the fact it's an election year, and all efforts will be made to prevent the inevitable crash that's coming. My bet is that it'll crash anyway.

Place your bets, gentlemen. Hide and watch.
Thread is bookmarked.

[Armageddon]

I wonder how much longer they can keep hiding the truth about SA ?

[Tyler_JC]

From a guy in Saudi Arabia?

Can you get any more vague than that?

I can claim to have a cousin in the Pentagon and talk about an impending war with Portugal but unless I can provide specifics, my claim is just speculation.

As for Matt Simmons, he predicted $190 oil for 2005 and $300-$600 oil for the winter of 2006.

Matt Simmons has more credibility than most because of his background in the industry but his predictions aren't much better than anyone else's.

[macman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MC2', 'H')yper-inflationists should be buying index funds on the Dow, S&P, etc., in lieu of PMs. For their scenario to work out, we have to be looking at Dow 25000, etc. Much more money to be made by pursuing that tack.

But, it won't happen, because THEY CANNOT INFLATE! There's no bubble to replace the last, final one. Even oil will be headed down a good bit, folks, hard as that may be to believe.

You don't have to wait very long now to see this for yourselves. Probably by the end of 2008, gold will be back down under 700. Maybe a lot sooner, and a lot farther, it just depends on how fast this unwinds. The only wild card is the fact it's an election year, and all efforts will be made to prevent the inevitable crash that's coming. My bet is that it'll crash anyway.Forget about index funds that at best will keep up with inflation , junior resource stocks and warrant in the precious metals and energy sectors will make you rich in the next 3 years, THE NEXT BUBBLE WILL BE IN HARD ASSETS SUCH As gold silver and crude oil and natural gas.DREAM ON WITH YOUR $700 GOLD BY THE END OF 2008, I'm glad everyone isn't bullish on gold yet because by the time gold hits $2,000 people will be going crazy for the stuff,and the mania phase will just be getting started, the era of paper is ending, do you really think by the end of 2008 you will be able to buy 1 oz of Gold for 7 pieces of paper with words and ink on them, give your head a shake, TRUST in the worlds financial system has been damaged greatly, MC2 is a good example of the phase that we are in the skeptical followed by optimism, then the REALLY fun part EUPHORIA!!! I think part of the reason people like to bash gold is they have not taken a position thus they have not gained, watching from the sidelines always HOPING it goes down so they don't feel so bad for missing the move up, I have a feeling within 2 years a whole lot of people that should know enouph about economics because they are in the business will say to themselves "how did I not put the pieces together and profit from what should have been soooo obvious"at which point they will pile in, PAPER IS OVER, HARD ASSETTS ONLY PLEASE, oh you want oil ???sorry we no longer accept fiat money for something as important as oil, but we do accept GOLD and SILVER.

Place your bets, gentlemen. Hide and watch.
Thread is bookmarked.

[MC2]

It's always good to know who's on the other side of the trade, so I can be able to say "sold to you!"

[MrBill]

Yes, why don't we all waste our time making silly bets about what will happen in 2010 even though there is no way to collect? As opposed to say thinking about the economic consequences of resource depletion and sharing those insights? Nah, that would just be a waste of time! ; - )

macman wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')OLD WON'T COME OUT OF THE GROUND FOR UNDER $600, YOU DEFLATIONISTS ARE CLUELESS, HYPERINFLATION IS ALWAYS THE OUTCOME FOR DEBTOR NATIONS FOR WHICH THE USA IS THE LARGEST EVER, BULL MARKETS GO FROM PESSIMISM-SKEPTICISM-OPTIMISM -EUPHORIA, AND WE ARE STILL IN THE SECOND PHASE,YOU MIGHT CALL GOLD A COMMODITY BUT THE REST OF THE WORLD KNOWS GOLD IS REAL MONEY, VERY EXPENSIVE LESSON COMING TO THE ANTI GOLD CROWD.HIGHER ENERGY COSTS WILL ENSURE THAT THE GOLD PRICE GOES UP BECAUSE MINING IS VERY ENERGY INTENSIVE,IF YOU CAN WATCH THE CANDIDATES TALK ABOUT THEIR GRAND PLANS AND NOT SEE HYPERINFLATION YOU ARE NOT TOO BRIGHT.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
') In the coming deflation, real money (gold) will gain considerable value, so prices will therefore fall sharply in gold terms. Paper dollars however, which have no intrinsic value at all, will lose value, not only as the Fed increases their supply, but as global demand for the currency implode

[macman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'Y')es, why don't we all waste our time making silly bets about what will happen in 2010 even though there is no way to collect? As opposed to say thinking about the economic consequences of resource depletion and sharing those insights? Nah, that would just be a waste of time! ; - )

macman wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')OLD WON'T COME OUT OF THE GROUND FOR UNDER $600, YOU DEFLATIONISTS ARE CLUELESS, HYPERINFLATION IS ALWAYS THE OUTCOME FOR DEBTOR NATIONS FOR WHICH THE USA IS THE LARGEST EVER, BULL MARKETS GO FROM PESSIMISM-SKEPTICISM-OPTIMISM -EUPHORIA, AND WE ARE STILL IN THE SECOND PHASE,YOU MIGHT CALL GOLD A COMMODITY BUT THE REST OF THE WORLD KNOWS GOLD IS REAL MONEY, VERY EXPENSIVE LESSON COMING TO THE ANTI GOLD CROWD.HIGHER ENERGY COSTS WILL ENSURE THAT THE GOLD PRICE GOES UP BECAUSE MINING IS VERY ENERGY INTENSIVE,IF YOU CAN WATCH THE CANDIDATES TALK ABOUT THEIR GRAND PLANS AND NOT SEE HYPERINFLATION YOU ARE NOT TOO BRIGHT.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN JAPAN AN USA, JAPAN IS AND WAS A CREDITOR NATION AS OPPOSED TO THE USA BEING THE BIGGEST DEBTOR IN HISTORY , WE WILL INFLATE THE DEBT AWAY, KNOWING THAT WE WILL JOIN WITH CANADA AND MEXICO WITH THE NEW CURRENCY THE AMERO AFTER THE COLLAPSE OF THE DOLLAR, WE ARE REACHING THE END OF THE CREDIT SUPERCYLE AS THEY HAVE TO RAMP UP MONEY SUPPLY TO GET A DIMINISHED RETURN,THE US IS BECOMING A NANNY STATE WITH THE WORST BALANCE SHEET ON EARTH, YOU HOLD THOSE FEDERAL RESERVE NOTES, NOT ME!THE US HAS HAD ONE HECK OF A PARTY, NEXT THE HANGOVER, HYPERINFLATIONARY DEPPRESSION, DEFLATIONISTS HAVE BEEN WRONG FOR DECADES, GOT GOLD?JUNIOR RESOURCE STOCKS WILL BE IN A FULL BLOWN MANIA WITHIN 2-3 YEARS, PLACE YOUR BETS, BYE, BYE.