[mos6507]

There are a lot of older liberal women in new england who were bra burners back in the day who are latching onto the Hillary candidacy just for the glee of pulling the lever for a woman.

[Flowerr]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', 'A')ctually more of a comment on several recent posts on PeakOil.com
when threads critical of the Bush Administration or TPTB are suddenly magnets for anti-semetic, racial or other unsavory comments with the appearance of being intentionally done to kill the thread.

[billg]

"The Diebold Effect": Hillary's Votes Higher From Diebold Machines
Even Controlling for Demographics (education, income, population, etc)

Posted on: January 15, 2008 5:42 PM, by Chris Chatham
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')In contrast to exit polls, the final vote tally from the NH democratic primary shows a surprise victory for Hillary Clinton. People quickly noticed an anomaly in the voting tallies which seemed to show an advantage to Hillary conferred by the use of Diebold machines.

However, there was an easy explanation: towns with Diebold machines are more urban on average, and Hillary was always thought to have more support in urban areas. So, like many others, I was supremely irritated by the lack of analyses which statistically controlled for this obvious factor.

So I got a copy of the vote counts, and thanks to Brian London at BlackBoxVoting, the demographic information from each town (most notably, the % holding bachelor's degrees, the median household income, and the total town population). Now, Mark LaBonte at BlackBoxVoting has provided estimates of the mileage for each district, allowing for the calculation of population density.

To my complete (and continuing) amazement, the "diebold effect" on Hillary's votes remains after controlling for any and all of those demographic variables, with a p-value of <.001: that is, there are less than 1:1000 odds for this difference occurring through chance alone, and that's after adjusting for variability in Hillary's votes due to education, income, total population, and population density.

While this "diebold effect" varies in magnitude depending on the exact covariates used, it seems to center around an additional 5.2% of votes going for Clinton from Diebold machines. The same analysis shows a Diebold disadvantage for Obama of about -4.2%, significant with a p<.001, using the same covariates.

Due to the cooperative grassroots nature of this effort, I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the data file - the information has come from a variety of sources and I won't claim to have verified it all. Furthermore, I'm not a statistician - I'm waiting on the Social Science Statistics Blog (Harvard) and the Statistical Modeling Blog (Columbia) to weigh in. However, my analysis seems in line with this paper about the 2004 NH democratic primary.

[psyop101]

Someones blog
?

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('psyop101', '[')img]http://www.nogw.com/images/nhresults3.jpg[/img]
Someones blog
?

[Benzin]

Choice is an illusion. Those who count the votes have all the power.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Benzin', 'C')hoice is an illusion. Those who count the votes have all the power.

[billg]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', '
')Hillary has always done well with minority voters. Her husband is an "honorary black," after all. Moreover, she did well with voters whose main concern was economic issues. People with less money might be more concerned about that.

[azreal60]

Yes, but your missing the point Billg. The reason for those increasingly bad numbers with African Americans is because of comments Hillary made that sounded just mildly like she was saying Dr King didn't have as much to do with the Civil rights act as everyone said he did. It didn't sit well with the black community, and you have the results you have.

Remember, campaigns are a fluid thing. Winning once doesn't mean you will again. That is as much true for Hillary as it is for Obama.

[Iaato]

Yes, Fleur, putting racists on the ignore list is wonderful. They simply just go away. I wish I could do that in real life.

Youtube on NH ballots--watch the expressions on their faces--priceless

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Iaato', 'Y')es, Fleur, putting racists on the ignore list is wonderful. They simply just go away. I wish I could do that in real life.

Youtube on NH ballots--watch the expressions on their faces--priceless

[threadbear]

Ummm, what on earth are you talking about when referring to racists? Aipac lies at the very heart of the disease that is rotting the body politic of the U.S. It's not the only factor but it's huge. Are you, Flower, Iatto, going to deny this? Are people who are aware of this, racist? Some, but likely not that many, if they understand how it actually works.

Israel has been hijacked, politically, by the same bunch of crazies that have subverted the masses and the democratic process in the U.S. Everyone is going to suffer, because of this, regardless of race, creed, or colour. It's not a race issue, it's a war profiteering organized CRIME issue.

Here, have a look.

http://www.aipac.org/1680.asp#8072

[mmasters]

I bet Obama is going to go VP under Hillary, who could argue with that ticket winning? (even though it is obviously another fake election)

[virgincrude]

That video is awsome. Just jawdropping.

Perhaps more amazing is the utter indifference and complacency towards this topic shown by many forum posters.

bradblog and BlackBox voting show seriously criminal behaviour and practices in the self proclaimed world's foremost democracy- The YooEsofAy.

If you care a damn about the future (post P.O- of course) you should all be mad as hell about what's happening to your country. The truley dreadfull thing, is that you really don't.

[skeptik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')here is no evidence the NH election was rigged.

[Polemic]

[Tyler_JC]

OK, so why did Obama just kick ass in South Carolina?

If vote rigging was supposed to hurt Obama and help Hillary...did they drop the ball in the Palmetto State?

[J-Rod]

Bev Harris is my hero, you all need to check this out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKQEQ7qHvgM

Are we mad yet?

[Plantagenet]

I'll bet when they counted up the votes in South Carolina, Obama got more votes then Hillary.

[Tyler_JC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'I')'ll bet when they counted up the votes in South Carolina, Obama got more votes then Hillary.