[Zechs]

Here's my two cents:

In an intense survival situtation, your own survival will depend on the people you are with, as one single person cannot possibly embody the library of skills required to sustain long-term survival conditions. Of course, there are always those that choose to retreat to the wilderness until the situation normalizes after a crisis, however in this particular scenario such a normalization may take a decade or more! One person, alone in the wilderness, has only a very remote chance of long-term survival on that time-scale, simply because one-person can easily perish when wounded or sick if not cared for by at least another. A small, mixed group of men and women retreating into the wilderness will stand a substantially better chance of long-term survival, however it must be stated that thier chances are still not all that exceptional.

The establishment of a post-collapse community gives the best odds, but brings it's own additional problems of sanitation, defense, and leadership. A community may well be easier to establish around the dictates of one individual, but for long-term survival purposes it becomes clear that some form of town-hall elder-caste leadership must be constructed prior to the leader's death to prevent a social collapse of the community.

Some form of preparation for this event is mandatory for survival. Since we know that a community is the best chance for survival, your first step towards preparation is to make steps towards being accepted in a small-rural community. Preferably, said community should be located at least 50 miles from any major city, and preferably well away of any major highway. You must also consider how you may retreat to said community without drawing to much attention towards yourself. Perhaps moving to the community and commuting, despite increasing expense, is the best solution. Also consider mapping out a route to the community from your current dwelling using only secondary roads off of the highway.

Secondly, aquisition of skills that would be valuable to such a community is the next great leap in survival probability. Almost all skills, save fashion and high-technology trades are scalable in some way to a small community operating off-grid. For instance, even a lowly janitor's knowledge of proper sanitation will become indispensable for prevention of dysentry and other forms of sanitory diseases.

The next logical step is to determine what material possessions you will need to individually aquire in order to ply your trade within the community. A carpenter would do well to quietly set aside a good set of hand-powered tools and several thousand nails into storage. Likewise, a dentist would do well to quietly create a stockpile of cheap toothbrushes.

Overall, the individual must aquire extra skills and knowledge to further bolster the skill set of the community. In addition, the procurement of basic supplies should be set about with common sense and patience. A large supply of MRE's, though desirable, would promote the thought that one should remain inside a city post-collapse, which screams against common-sense.

[jato]

Zechs, welcome, great post. I agree with it.

[Zechs]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', 'Z')echs, welcome, great post. I agree with it.

[holmes]

1 in 400 understand basic ecology.
supposedly 1/3 of the US population "FEELS" that evolution is not valid and not enough has been done to prove it. its so innate. OMFG.
that 1 is the "fringe" of society.

The illegal alien population is truthfully at 30 million in the US. lets have a highly conservative guess of 5 children per family (catholic). Prison system. check that overpopulated mess and welfare system. then go to the overpopulation and consumption of the corporate and social welfare state. Promotes and provides an environment for easy breeding and low genetic variability. rich and poor. We are not even close to a free market system in the US. Im starting to think its due to low IQ's helped being created with cheap energy.
there is way more. Mismanagement and incompetency greed of the highest order.
personal experience employed with several US governemnts and the waste is unbelievable.
4 years observing the waste and pollution by the US military. Years and years of this compounded.

We in the US have Mega-landfills. Cool.

[holmes]

U in europe are on big landfills. Years and years compounded. Millennia. t

The fertility pounded out of the soils.

[holmes]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('retiredguy', 'I')'ll second what PhilBiker said about the Amish. I was in an Amish general store in December. Almost all of the goods in the store came from somewhere else. They were even selling toys made in China. And the canned goods were all factory-canned.

You can bet stuff didn't arrive via horse and wagon, either.

[Pfish]

One of the issues I have with PO is that somehow we go from a lot of oil to no oil in such a short period of time. We are all going to die over night?

One of the things I have not seen is a timeline for all of the above. Do we die as soon as oil hits $70 a barrel? $200 a barrel? Come on. People go through hardships all the time: divorce, loss of a job, loss of a loved one and yet they still make it through.

Maybe the reason PO has not made it into the mainstream is because one minute we have some accurate and highly scientific figures from some insightful individuals and the next minute we conjure die-offs and the end of civilization.

[Zechs]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pfish', 'O')ne of the issues I have with PO is that somehow we go from a lot of oil to no oil in such a short period of time. We are all going to die over night?

One of the things I have not seen is a timeline for all of the above. Do we die as soon as oil hits $70 a barrel? $200 a barrel? Come on. People go through hardships all the time: divorce, loss of a job, loss of a loved one and yet they still make it through.

Maybe the reason PO has not made it into the mainstream is because one minute we have some accurate and highly scientific figures from some insightful individuals and the next minute we conjure die-offs and the end of civilization.

[Pfish]

Zechs:

People die every day. It is a fact of life. I don't think they are dying any faster today than the were 30 years ago.

I would argue that we are keeping people alive too long. I just lost my mom and day this past year. My mom had been in a hospital for the last 19 months of her life. It drained her, us and the healthcare system.

The states and federal government are going to "reform" Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid right out of existence. The easiset way would be to raise the age of elgibility for the two. Did you listen to Bush's speech? It is in play.

[Creach]

Imagine this.

Suppose supply has fallen to the point we're paying $200 a barrell. We're still using 80 million barrels a day, so at $200 it costs us $16 billion a day.

The US cannot afford to import enough oil to keep the economy running. The government subsidizes the domestic oil industry in hopes of jump starting production here at home. We've already peaked here, and thus this effort fails eventually. Oil has to be rationed to keep the food supply going. Martial law is imposed after a while to protect this system from utter collapse.

Riots break out in the cities as people go without food or too little food. The military will no doubt weaken as people leave, and are eventually forced to stay. All while the government uselessly throws money at oil production here and buys what it can abroad.

Productivity and economic output drops rapidly as martial law, civil unrest, and fear rise. A great deal of people will die, most of them likely in the riots rather than from starvation or lack of medical treatment.

Eventually...the system will go completely broke and collapse. A new America and world will rise from the ashes, no doubt.

It will be slow getting to that point, but once the decline starts it is likely to be rapid. The fact is our country is just too big and designed around the idea that we'll be able to use cars and planes to transport vital goods long distances.

If in say...40 years, when I'm 59, if I were to still live where I presently do...I'd only be able to eat bread and drink beer, and that's as long as the two factories I'm near have supplies. What happens when the workers quit and they shut down, as everyone clogs the highways, rushing to the big cities to get the government handouts?

Imagine the lines of empty cars. Imagine the people walking towards the cities.

People will not simply devolve into an agrarian society. At least most people won't. So it will be as rough as some say, I do believe.

[Zechs]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pfish', 'Z')echs:

People die every day. It is a fact of life. I don't think they are dying any faster today than the were 30 years ago.

I would argue that we are keeping people alive too long. I just lost my mom and day this past year. My mom had been in a hospital for the last 19 months of her life. It drained her, us and the healthcare system.

The states and federal government are going to "reform" Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid right out of existence. The easiset way would be to raise the age of elgibility for the two. Did you listen to Bush's speech? It is in play.

[maverickdoc]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Creach', 'I')magine this.

Suppose supply has fallen to the point we're paying $200 a barrell. We're still using 80 million barrels a day, so at $200 it costs us $16 billion a day.

The US cannot afford to import enough oil to keep the economy running. The government subsidizes the domestic oil industry in hopes of jump starting production here at home. We've already peaked here, and thus this effort fails eventually. Oil has to be rationed to keep the food supply going. Martial law is imposed after a while to protect this system from utter collapse.

Riots break out in the cities as people go without food or too little food. The military will no doubt weaken as people leave, and are eventually forced to stay. All while the government uselessly throws money at oil production here and buys what it can abroad.

Productivity and economic output drops rapidly as martial law, civil unrest, and fear rise. A great deal of people will die, most of them likely in the riots rather than from starvation or lack of medical treatment.

Eventually...the system will go completely broke and collapse. A new America and world will rise from the ashes, no doubt.

It will be slow getting to that point, but once the decline starts it is likely to be rapid. The fact is our country is just too big and designed around the idea that we'll be able to use cars and planes to transport vital goods long distances.

If in say...40 years, when I'm 59, if I were to still live where I presently do...I'd only be able to eat bread and drink beer, and that's as long as the two factories I'm near have supplies. What happens when the workers quit and they shut down, as everyone clogs the highways, rushing to the big cities to get the government handouts?

Imagine the lines of empty cars. Imagine the people walking towards the cities.

People will not simply devolve into an agrarian society. At least most people won't. So it will be as rough as some say, I do believe.

[TrueKaiser]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('maverickdoc', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Creach', 'I')magine this.

Suppose supply has fallen to the point we're paying $200 a barrell. We're still using 80 million barrels a day, so at $200 it costs us $16 billion a day.

The US cannot afford to import enough oil to keep the economy running. The government subsidizes the domestic oil industry in hopes of jump starting production here at home. We've already peaked here, and thus this effort fails eventually. Oil has to be rationed to keep the food supply going. Martial law is imposed after a while to protect this system from utter collapse.

Riots break out in the cities as people go without food or too little food. The military will no doubt weaken as people leave, and are eventually forced to stay. All while the government uselessly throws money at oil production here and buys what it can abroad.

Productivity and economic output drops rapidly as martial law, civil unrest, and fear rise. A great deal of people will die, most of them likely in the riots rather than from starvation or lack of medical treatment.

Eventually...the system will go completely broke and collapse. A new America and world will rise from the ashes, no doubt.

It will be slow getting to that point, but once the decline starts it is likely to be rapid. The fact is our country is just too big and designed around the idea that we'll be able to use cars and planes to transport vital goods long distances.

If in say...40 years, when I'm 59, if I were to still live where I presently do...I'd only be able to eat bread and drink beer, and that's as long as the two factories I'm near have supplies. What happens when the workers quit and they shut down, as everyone clogs the highways, rushing to the big cities to get the government handouts?

Imagine the lines of empty cars. Imagine the people walking towards the cities.

People will not simply devolve into an agrarian society. At least most people won't. So it will be as rough as some say, I do believe.

[maverickdoc]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TrueKaiser', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('maverickdoc', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Creach', 'I')magine this.

Suppose supply has fallen to the point we're paying $200 a barrell. We're still using 80 million barrels a day, so at $200 it costs us $16 billion a day.

The US cannot afford to import enough oil to keep the economy running. The government subsidizes the domestic oil industry in hopes of jump starting production here at home. We've already peaked here, and thus this effort fails eventually. Oil has to be rationed to keep the food supply going. Martial law is imposed after a while to protect this system from utter collapse.

Riots break out in the cities as people go without food or too little food. The military will no doubt weaken as people leave, and are eventually forced to stay. All while the government uselessly throws money at oil production here and buys what it can abroad.

Productivity and economic output drops rapidly as martial law, civil unrest, and fear rise. A great deal of people will die, most of them likely in the riots rather than from starvation or lack of medical treatment.

Eventually...the system will go completely broke and collapse. A new America and world will rise from the ashes, no doubt.

It will be slow getting to that point, but once the decline starts it is likely to be rapid. The fact is our country is just too big and designed around the idea that we'll be able to use cars and planes to transport vital goods long distances.

If in say...40 years, when I'm 59, if I were to still live where I presently do...I'd only be able to eat bread and drink beer, and that's as long as the two factories I'm near have supplies. What happens when the workers quit and they shut down, as everyone clogs the highways, rushing to the big cities to get the government handouts?

Imagine the lines of empty cars. Imagine the people walking towards the cities.

People will not simply devolve into an agrarian society. At least most people won't. So it will be as rough as some say, I do believe.

[Creach]

I don't think I could be any calmer. I'm quite at peace.

The price will indeed be gradual. None of this will take place over night. I can only really assume, and that's not good.

But I'm not optimistic enough about humanity to believe for a minute people would adapt like that. It seems to me that when we have a good thing going, we tend to ride it until it stops, even if it means hitting a brick wall.

And people will riot over just about anything, just like governments of any form don't mind declaring martial law.

We've stalled as far as major energy advances go. People are afraid of nuclear power, plain and simple. They've been that way for decades. It will takes at least 20 years before we even seriously begin thinking about it, I'd say. That basically gives China time to build a lot of reactors and get good, long term results.

I wrote that to give Pfish some food for thought. It's not necessarily just doom and gloom and oh my God the world is gonna end!! but rather conclusions based on logical speculation.

[maverickdoc]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Creach', ' ') People are afraid of nuclear power, plain and simple. They've been that way for decades. It will takes at least 20 years before we even seriously begin thinking about it, I'd say. That basically gives China time to build a lot of reactors and get good, long term results.

[Creach]

We'll worry about Peak Uranium when it gets closer .

The comeback of coal will suck for the environment, but that's a sacrifice that will have to be made in the short term.

I don't know what all new tech will be available in a decade, but I haven't heard anything too optimistic.

Bottom line is this...supposing things do not change, and there is a peak oil decline, it will likely be worse than some say and better than others.

[Golgo13]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PhilBiker', '
')Not for 6.3 BILLION people.

[holmes]

fuck u and your nuclear energy ya bloated hogs. No clue and no care about sustainablility or sacrifice.

yep ill be sitting back in my earth ship living FREE watching the glutons and lunatics "getting their rightful energy nuclear". Then i will watch their demise as they develop cancers and disease frm all their wack experiments trying to sustain their energy fixes.

stop being a lazy ahole and ditch the nuclear. start building something sustainable. ya dopes.

and they will take every one down with them.

fuc u. selfish jerks.

[mindfarkk]

for the OP... give it time. keep talking about it, about your feelings. be honest but keep it simple. and give it time. acceptance takes a while, redefining your world view takes a while. try to avoid extremes. yes, it's heartbreaking. try reading "desiderata", it helps me. also "beyond good and evil" is a good philosophy (shameless plug for my own POV). remember the world has always been full of this kind of madness. it doesn't mean people are all bad. try not to project out too much. sure, it *could* eventually mean the end of the world as we know it (believe me, the world will go on, with or without us), but extreme thinking usually comes straight out of extreme fear and anger - it has no perspective, it's a primal response. try to let it go. you don't actually know what the outcome will be, and it's as easy to try to envision the best case as the worst. yes, it's very frightening and it's very enraging, it's a bitter pill, it's incredibly disappointing to realize with all we know and have accomplished and learned, this is where we are as a species. we are very perverse!!! i have totally been there these last few months. but some of that is my internal alarm system, not just the information itself. get some emotional support. i have talked very plainly with my therapist about PO, which was difficult because i was afraid she would just write me off as a nutcase. but then again if she did, i'd know something about her, and find someone else. fortunately i presented the information first and as plainly as i could, my emotional and intellectual reaction to it, and we have been able to talk - not just about the logic, or the information, but how much of my reaction is just my stuff, and is counterproductive, and how much is (for lack of a better word) "legitimate" and effective response to *how things are now* as well as how they could get. i dunno, it helped me get some balance back. i don't feel as overwhelmed. i feel like i need to keep an eye on things, but like i can wait also, and take care of first things first.

to wit, there is simply too much that has to happen right now financially, materially, physically, intellectually, for me to be in a big rush. it's going to be about 3 years before i can be financially solvent, period - before i can even begin digging myself out of debt. after that, with good fortune, i can dig myself out of my student loans in ten or fifteen years. i might be able to assume a mortgage in that time, but leaving the state would be difficult to say the least. so i'm tied to a very expensive area. i've decided to deal with it all this way;

1) to learn and practice as many skills as i can, which i like to do anyway. that's everything from post-PO type trades to survival skills.

2) water purifiers. that and ultra-cold-weather sleeping bags i consider essential in an emergency. anything else we can make or do for ourselves.

3) pay off my student loan debts, work on my relationship til we get to a point where i'm confident we can work together in a crisis as a team, and to a point where we can co-invest in some property. property will probably be a house with enough square footage for me to start a garden and not in the city.

i honestly see that PO *could* have horrific consequences in my immediate neighborhood (i recognize it already has for many people). and, in fact, i can't see anything that's going to stand in the way of same. at the same time, because i can't see them all, doesn't mean there's not a lot of mitigating factors in how this plays out (quickly, slowly, etc.); maybe it will not be instant disaster, easilly rampant unemployment et al, yes, social unrest but not necessarily a state of martial law and complete breakdown of society.

it appears to me that to react too strongly, too fast, due to my material situation, health, etc., will in my situation weaken my position in almost any scenario. i'm going still going to hope for the best and prepare for the worst, but right now my plan by necessity has to be long term (meaning 10-15 years out). so i'm hoping life in the U.S. will hold together at least that long. i think it's certainly possible, maybe even more likely.

today i want to simply wait, learn, and observe. and i just have to be patient with the fact that i'm not in a position to get off the grid just yet. but i can feed my brain, practice skills, and strengthen the underpinning of my life, which is my network of friends and most of all, my life partner. if anyone can fight elbow to elbow with me, who i would trust with my life, it would be him.

it's a gift to have some heads-up on what's coming. i feel grateful for that. i'm not going to be ambushed by this. that will have to be my main asset for now.