[GreyGhost]

well no, I meant each of the bullet points has happened
Unless you count that thing I saw in ocean's 11

[patience]

I voted 2009, expecting the powers that be to try their best to hold it together until after elections in '08, then a major credit/banking collapse to follow when it can no longer be prevented. Kontratieff Winter. Decline of oil production will surely occur, making any recovery that much harder.

[evilgenius]

I voted this year because I think this is when the economic implications are going to become undeniable. This year we will see the supply demand equation rocked by the peak and not rumors of the peak or manipulation that can be attributed to localized disruption. Who knows if this will cause a full on market blow out. I suspect it will, however.

As for the inevitable wars both small and large, well that will probably be after Hillary gets in and they try her out on Iraq in order to attempt to seal the deal regarding control of the Iraqi fields. I don't know if Hillary will flounder for a year or two before the other side in the post Cold War world pushes back, but the Russians will at some point. They won't be able to help it what with having been boxed in by Western policy until then and then to be presented will that same policy's patent failure. It could shake out as a war avoided by intense negotiations but somehow given the Machiavellian nature of the Western approach I doubt that.

[Newfie]

I vote 2009 for similar reasons. Both parties have invested heavily in the campaigns and want something predictable to happen. Also there is a very large amount of denial and that will tend to keep things going on for a while.

What will really happen is not that some physical/economical factor will kick in but that all of a sudden public opinion will be convinced of some change and the average public attitude will make a dramatic shift. Could be oil price, could be economy, could be another WMD, who knows.

I just hope it holds out until 2010 so I can cash out my 401K and then run like hell.

[jboogy]

Also believe they are delaying economic crash by any and all means until after Shrillary/Obama takes office. I'm not sure TPTB will be able to put it off that long, it's really starting to look as if things are unraveling at a pretty good clip right now. I see Shrillary being on board with the whole military , imperial resource grab but not Obama. But since Obama has achieved mainstream acceptance he may have been vetted and OK'd by the PTB and once in office we'll see business as usual out of the oval office.

[Plantagenet]

I voted 2011. About 2-3 years of a democratic-controlled House and Senate combined with a Hillary presidency should be enough to turn the upcoming recession into a full-blown depression.

[Ayoob]

1965 is when TSHTF. That was the best of times. Barely 200 million Africans were starving to death.

[efarmer]

All right, all right. I agree TSHTF. Could you tell me where to stand so I am on the input side of the fan instead of the splattering output side?
I don't mind the smell so much, but I would like to skip all the little polka dots if I can.

[abelardlindsay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', 'T')he uneven distribution won't be noticed until a neighbor, such as Mexico, bites the dust. Then TSHTF effectively for us. The psychology of it can probably best be described as the first time you see a house on your road with a foreclosure sign on it, and realize you're basically a hop, skip and jump away from that yourself.

[Schneider]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('abelardlindsay', ' ')Lately Haliburton and KBR have been contracted to build a lot of detention centers near the border in Texas. Oil is 40% of Mexican government revenues and production is in decline.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('abelardlindsay', '
')When TSHTF in Mexico they are all going to migrate north -- not for economic opportunity but because they are starving. Lately Haliburton and KBR have been contracted to build a lot of detention centers near the border in Texas. Oil is 40% of Mexican government revenues and production is in decline.

[qwanta]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('abelardlindsay', '
')When TSHTF in Mexico they are all going to migrate north -- not for economic opportunity but because they are starving. Lately Haliburton and KBR have been contracted to build a lot of detention centers near the border in Texas. Oil is 40% of Mexican government revenues and production is in decline.

[pup55]

Mexico:

Population 108 million, minus about 20 million that are up here.

Arable land: 243,000 sq km. That's about 450 people per square km, twice as much as the US, but nowhere near the problem that Pakistan or Tanzania has.

Life expectancy: about 75. Live births per mother, only about 2.39.

30% of the population is under 14, and there are 20 births per 1000 population, in the US it's 20% and 14, so they are having a few too many babies.

Per capita income: over $10K.

only .3% admit to having AIDS.

So I have to say, in the grand scheme of things, if you have to pick a place to live to ride out Oilmageddon, I would rather do it in Mexico than in Tanzania or Pakistan.

I think Mexico's problems are about 98% political. Their economy is run by a corrupt drug- or oil-fueled oligarchy, who are more interested in consolidating their own power and making themselves richer than in making their country more habitable. This has caused 25% "underemployment" and 20 million of their most productive citizens have chosen to chuck it and head north.

Having all of those young people up here keeps them from having the revolution that they need to straighten up the society down there.

CIA world factbook

[RedStateGreen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('qwanta', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('abelardlindsay', '
')When TSHTF in Mexico they are all going to migrate north -- not for economic opportunity but because they are starving. Lately Haliburton and KBR have been contracted to build a lot of detention centers near the border in Texas. Oil is 40% of Mexican government revenues and production is in decline.

[strider3700]

the profit is in putting the land back into use after you claim it since everyone that used to live there has left/died.

[Pops]

I’ve posted recently on several threads that corn was over $5.30/bu for March delivery, up from 2.50 last years and $1.20 the year before.

Beans (soy, like corn, is a main input to your Big Mac, Sausage Biscuit and Buffalo Wings) are somewhere north of $13/bu and wheat around $5.x.


Interestingly nobody here seems to get too excited – at least not yet.

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'B')eans (soy, like corn, is a main input to your Big Mac, Sausage Biscuit and Buffalo Wings) are somewhere north of $13/bu and wheat around $5.x.


Interestingly nobody here seems to get too excited – at least not yet.

[Pops]

I was being facetious talking about Big Macs. Corn and its byproducts especially, are used in just about everything we eat form cereal to soda pop to eggs to beef and pork, and as corn is increasingly sold to make ethanol, the price of other feeds for the meat we eat are going to rise because of that ethanol demand.

So a 400% increase in corn prices in three years (which has not impacted the supermarket as yet – and remember these are May delivery prices and even chickens take a few months to transition to Nuggets) will affect every aspect of the food economy.

For a board seeking to devine the future this seems a little bit of a blind spot I'm thinking.


I guess this is the last time I'll post this chart...

[patience]

Yeah, Pops, some of us do watch the grain futures. That could mean that my farmer customers could actually afford to bring me business next year. I was kinda hoping for a slower year, to get some prep work done. Oh, well, as they say, make hay when the sun shines. I make money when the farmers do.

That doesn't mean "even distribution" here, however. The other half of the economy, the factories in the Rust Belt, are in sad shape,and getting worse.

The the lag time you pointed out, from farm prices to end users, is a market I play for grocery savings. Time to buy that efficient freezer and stuff it with meat, before the grain prices and this year's beef slaughter due to hay shortage in the midwest, finally show up in the freezer case at the gracery.

[bodigami]

will you stop buying _? I was inspired to post this by the "crazy" topic, but had the idea some time ago (without plans to post it because it may be a bit random).

bonus digital cookie or pie points for posters that explain the rationale that went for this questions or add other questions.