[Leanan]

Cool graphs. Did you make them?

[Armageddon]

Thanks Zahl, nice set of graphs.

[Zahl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'C')ool graphs. Did you make them?

[whereagles]

Is the government sleeping or something? If I were in charge and see those gasoline stocks losing 45% in 8 years, I'd be very worried.

[DantesPeak]

The problem with constantly declining inventories is that eventually we play a game of whack-a mole, which at least gives us a clue that shortages are about to occur somewhere.

For example, gasoline production has picked up over the last month (despite the onset of winter), so crude oil must be drawn down faster. So if we avoid hitting MOLs for gasoline, we may be closer to hitting the MOL for crude as its used up.

During 2007, gasoline was most frequently closest to MOLs nationwide, although diesel was also in short supply in some locations. Gasoline supplies were rushed around the US and Canada, in whack-a-mole style, to prevent any major city from having significant gasoline shortages. In 2008, if import trends do not change, it's possible that the MOL for crude will be hit before the MOL for gasoline. Still it is not yet clear if even gasoline imports in 2008 will be maintained at 2007 levels.

It's going to be an interesting year, maybe the last year where fuel supplies are fairly reliable across most of the country. I see much larger problems with supply looming in 2009, as the struggle to stay above MOLs will start to fail.

[Bas]

whack-a-MOL....how applicable

Thanks for the graphs, zahl and welcome

[Leanan]

Westexas thinks that drop in gasoline is due to the ramping up of ethanol. He suggests total gasoline stocks would be a better measure.

[Zahl]

A good measure of what? If we want to get a good strategic picture of potential gasoline shortages, then the Finished Motor Gasoline statistic is the one to watch. People don't drive with blending components and oxygenates. If the FMG statistic drops below critical levels, all cups and cans may be full of blending components and oxygenates, but a shortage of gasoline will occur. Here is the Days of Supply version of the previous Finished Motor Gasoline graph. It isn't surprising that there are gasoline shortages when the days of supply hovers just above 11 days. Before the ethanol craze started to take over, it was pretty stable at 17 to 19 days.

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eople don't drive with blending components and oxygenates.

[Zahl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eople don't drive with blending components and oxygenates.

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zahl', 'A') good measure of what? If we want to get a good strategic picture of potential gasoline shortages, then the Finished Motor Gasoline statistic is the one to watch. People don't drive with blending components and oxygenates. If the FMG statistic drops below critical levels, all cups and cans may be full of blending components and oxygenates, but a shortage of gasoline will occur. Here is the Days of Supply version of the previous Finished Motor Gasoline graph. It isn't surprising that there are gasoline shortages when the days of supply hovers just above 11 days. Before the ethanol craze started to take over, it was pretty stable at 17 to 19 days.

[SchroedingersCat]

The Congressional Research Service prepared a report to Congress in late 2005 that listed the MOL for gasoline at 170 and for oil at 270. The report did not source those figures.

I think days of supply above MOL is the best way to look at the inventories when they're this tight. If crude inventories are at 290 mbbls now, that is only two days worth of imports away from MOL.

[Zahl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zahl', 'A') good measure of what? If we want to get a good strategic picture of potential gasoline shortages, then the Finished Motor Gasoline statistic is the one to watch. People don't drive with blending components and oxygenates. If the FMG statistic drops below critical levels, all cups and cans may be full of blending components and oxygenates, but a shortage of gasoline will occur. Here is the Days of Supply version of the previous Finished Motor Gasoline graph. It isn't surprising that there are gasoline shortages when the days of supply hovers just above 11 days. Before the ethanol craze started to take over, it was pretty stable at 17 to 19 days.

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SchroedingersCat', 'T')he Congressional Research Service prepared a report to Congress in late 2005 that listed the MOL for gasoline at 170 and for oil at 270. The report did not source those figures.

I think days of supply above MOL is the best way to look at the inventories when they're this tight. If crude inventories are at 290 mbbls now, that is only two days worth of imports away from MOL.

[Zahl]

The last data point in that graph is actually Dec-28, 2007 at 19.0 days. In recent years stocks (and days of supply) have fallen until mid-January so we probably see two or three drops before going up again. As for MOLs, it mostly hinges on the skill of those who run the system, not any hard figure. Crappy logistics and there will be shortages even with reasonable stock levels.

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zahl', 'T')he last data point in that graph is actually Dec-28, 2007 at 19.0 days.

[Zahl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zahl', 'I')n recent years stocks (and days of supply) have fallen until mid-January so we probably see two or three drops before going up again.

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zahl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zahl', 'I')n recent years stocks (and days of supply) have fallen until mid-January so we probably see two or three drops before going up again.

[Zahl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zahl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zahl', 'I')n recent years stocks (and days of supply) have fallen until mid-January so we probably see two or three drops before going up again.

[sjn]

The author of this blog is tracking global net oil exports.

The difference in magnitude and direction of oil prices since net exports were down in 2000 is a clear sign to me that this time the change is export led as opposed to import led.