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Return lines longer than checkout lines?

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Return lines longer than checkout lines?

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Fri 28 Dec 2007, 18:24:28

I'm going to forecast that the return lines at your local emporium, whether Wal-Mart or Nieman-Marcus, will be longer than the checkout lines, and that much of the supposed "boom" in Xmas shopping will turn out to have been gift cards that get spent on necessities, or items that get returned for cash.

Example: I buy my sister a set of brass candlesticks, putting them on the credit card because I somehow don't seem to have much cash on hand. Then my sister takes the candlesticks and returns them, for cash, which she needs to keep the water bill paid and get some dry milk for the kids.
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Re: Return lines longer than checkout lines?

Unread postby TWilliam » Fri 28 Dec 2007, 19:11:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('I_Like_Plants', 'I')'m going to forecast that the return lines at your local emporium, whether Wal-Mart or Nieman-Marcus, will be longer than the checkout lines, and that much of the supposed "boom" in Xmas shopping will turn out to have been gift cards that get spent on necessities, or items that get returned for cash.

Example: I buy my sister a set of brass candlesticks, putting them on the credit card because I somehow don't seem to have much cash on hand. Then my sister takes the candlesticks and returns them, for cash, which she needs to keep the water bill paid and get some dry milk for the kids.


You're in the habit of including the receipts when you give gifts ILP? Not many people I know are (none that I can think of in fact), and few retailers that I'm aware of will provide refunds without them. The gift card buy-and-return might work, altho I've noted the few times I've used one that there's usually some sort of notation on the receipt that it's a gift card purchase, so a return might be limited to 'store credit', but I don't know.

I suspect pawnshops might see an uptick in business tho'. That may not be unusual however for this time of year...
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Re: Return lines longer than checkout lines?

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Fri 28 Dec 2007, 21:48:20

You have a point about the reciepts .... a lot of Americans DO include the reciept tucked under the wrapping or whatever...

Right-o about the pawnshops, in fact the pawns were already being flooded with stuff.
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Re: Return lines longer than checkout lines?

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Fri 28 Dec 2007, 23:20:48

Of course the return lines are longer than the checkout lines. Lots of people get shit they don't want for Christmas and are exchanging it for something better. This isn't new.

I rarely hear about people giving the receipt along with the gift but I'm sure that some people do it (as tactless as it may be).

Everyone on this website predicted a complete collapse in consumer spending this holiday season and as it turns, they were wrong...again. Spending was up a disappointing but not apocalyptic 2.4%.
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Re: Return lines longer than checkout lines?

Unread postby frankthetank » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 00:41:54

Most gifts we give and receive have "gift receipts" with them. Must be a midwest thing, but i think its pretty common.
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Re: Return lines longer than checkout lines?

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 00:58:07

Considering that culturally, the Midwest covers most of the USA, I'd say it's a US thing :wink:
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Re: Return lines longer than checkout lines?

Unread postby TWilliam » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 15:32:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'S')pending was up a disappointing but not apocalyptic 2.4%.


I suspect that the 'increase' is a result of either a) 'creative interpretation' ( How To Lie With Statistics comes to mind), or b) simply a reflection of the still annually increasing consumer base.

A more telling indicator would be per capita spending. I've heard many people remark that they've spent less this year than Xmas' past...
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Re: Return lines longer than checkout lines?

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Sat 29 Dec 2007, 23:27:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'S')pending was up a disappointing but not apocalyptic 2.4%.


I suspect that the 'increase' is a result of either a) 'creative interpretation' ( How To Lie With Statistics comes to mind), or b) simply a reflection of the still annually increasing consumer base.

A more telling indicator would be per capita spending. I've heard many people remark that they've spent less this year than Xmas' past...


And the US population grows at around .8% a year so the per capita increase was 1.6%.

Again, not a great increase. But certainly not TEOTWAWKI.

The folks on this website were predicting a huge decline...hence why I generally gloss over the fortune tellers.
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Re: Return lines longer than checkout lines?

Unread postby Falconoffury » Sun 30 Dec 2007, 04:41:47

If the Fed didn't bail out the banks and lower interest rates this year, we could have seen a much worse Christmas shopping season. The day of reckoning has only been pushed back, not averted.
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Re: Return lines longer than checkout lines?

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Sun 30 Dec 2007, 15:26:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Falconoffury', 'I')f the Fed didn't bail out the banks and lower interest rates this year, we could have seen a much worse Christmas shopping season. The day of reckoning has only been pushed back, not averted.


And is there any evidence that lower interest rates lead to more HELOCs and more consumer spending?

Lower interest rates reduce the return on capital but savings rates were already so low that I doubt it was a major factor.

Overall, the economy is still limping along and consumer spending isn't crashing. As long as people have jobs, they will spend money.

We need to see a major increase in unemployment before spending drops.
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Re: Return lines longer than checkout lines?

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Sun 30 Dec 2007, 15:29:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')We need to see a major increase in unemployment before spending drops.


Give that ..... about 5 days.... :cry:
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Re: Return lines longer than checkout lines?

Unread postby TWilliam » Sun 30 Dec 2007, 21:18:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'A')nd the US population grows at around .8% a year so the per capita increase was 1.6%.


I'm not talking about population growth (tho' that too is a factor), I'm talking about the increase in the number of shoppers. For example, this was the first year that my wife's daughter actually had her own money to spend on gifts for others.

Also, while a recent NY Times article says that "[e]arlier this month, the government reported that personal spending surged in November", it adds "but the boost was mostly due to higher outlays for food and gasoline".

Mastercard says one third of spending increases from Thanksgiving to Xmas were gasoline. I don't know about you, but most people I know still spend considerably more on food than fuel, so I think it's safe to assume that at least another third (and I expect it's more than half actually) of that spending increase was for food and other necessities, which leaves you with 0.4% at best.
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Re: Return lines longer than checkout lines?

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Mon 31 Dec 2007, 04:56:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'A')nd the US population grows at around .8% a year so the per capita increase was 1.6%.
...

Also, while a recent NY Times article says that "[e]arlier this month, the government reported that personal spending surged in November", it adds "but the boost was mostly due to higher outlays for food and gasoline".

Mastercard says one third of spending increases from Thanksgiving to Xmas were gasoline. I don't know about you, but most people I know still spend considerably more on food than fuel, so I think it's safe to assume that at least another third (and I expect it's more than half actually) of that spending increase was for food and other necessities, which leaves you with 0.4% at best.


The Chinese exporters must be hurting.

How is China to keep its 10% annual growth if US consumers make a paltry 0.8% contribution?

And the US is only 6% the population of China.
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Re: Return lines longer than checkout lines?

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Mon 31 Dec 2007, 16:31:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'A')nd the US population grows at around .8% a year so the per capita increase was 1.6%.


I'm not talking about population growth (tho' that too is a factor), I'm talking about the increase in the number of shoppers. For example, this was the first year that my wife's daughter actually had her own money to spend on gifts for others.

Also, while a recent NY Times article says that "[e]arlier this month, the government reported that personal spending surged in November", it adds "but the boost was mostly due to higher outlays for food and gasoline".

Mastercard says one third of spending increases from Thanksgiving to Xmas were gasoline. I don't know about you, but most people I know still spend considerably more on food than fuel, so I think it's safe to assume that at least another third (and I expect it's more than half actually) of that spending increase was for food and other necessities, which leaves you with 0.4% at best.


I already factored that out of my numbers.

Source

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')SpendingPulse, a report released by MasterCard, had projected spending to rise 3.5 percent to 4.0 percent over last year's holiday season. Excluding gasoline, which cost about 30 percent more than last holiday season, spending rose 2.4 percent.
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