[JohnDenver]

At the moment, EIA stats indicate that peak oil is not a future event, and in fact occurred roughly 2.5 years ago in May 2005. The peak value was 74.3mbd, and the most recent value (for Aug. 2007) was 72.5mbd -- down by 1.8mbd or 2.5% from the peak:

Considering that this message board is called peakoil.com, and is inhabited by peakoilers, and we've all been told that peak oil will be TEOTWAWKI , it seems a little odd that nobody is talking about the actual event of "global peak oil".

Thus, this thread. Let's talk about how peak oil came and went, and was basically a non-event which hasn't even caused a recession.

[jbrovont]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'A')t the moment, EIA stats indicate that peak oil is not a future event, and in fact occurred roughly 2.5 years ago in May 2005. The peak value was 74.3mbd, and the most recent value (for Aug. 2007) was 72.5mbd -- down by 1.8mbd or 2.5% from the peak:

Considering that this message board is called peakoil.com, and is inhabited by peakoilers, and we've all been told that peak oil will be TEOTWAWKI , it seems a little odd that nobody is talking about the actual event of "global peak oil".

Thus, this thread. Let's talk about how peak oil came and went, and was basically a non-event which hasn't even caused a recession.

[TheDude]

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')Thus, this thread. Let's talk about how peak oil came and went, and was basically a non-event which hasn't even caused a recession.

[JohnDenver]

Bringing over the discussion from Pops' Pearl Harbor Thread:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'S')ignificant though that peak (in May 2005) was, you probably well know that all liquids production continued to grow and, according to the IEA, may have reached a new high in October 2007 (this year).

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '[')url=http://imageshack.us][/url]

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'W')e are still waiting for your techno fixes, space elevators and unlimited nano solar, cold fusion <insert favorite energy delusion>

[Micki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou could easily lop off 5mbd of U.S. oil consumption simply by people riding scooters/mopeds and carpooling. And that's with no loss of functionality whatsoever.

[kpeavey]

JohnDenver serves a particularly useful function here on Peakoil.com. His continued resistance to the notion of Peak Oil helps to prevent us from deluding ourselves.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', 'T')he reality is that oil consumption continues at maximum levels until people are forced to drop. So when you see people moving from cars to scooters is when they no longer can afford driving cars.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'W')ho cares? I don't drive.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'W')ho cares? I don't drive.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', 'T')he reality is that oil consumption continues at maximum levels until people are forced to drop. So when you see people moving from cars to scooters is when they no longer can afford driving cars.

[KillTheHumans]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'A')t the moment, EIA stats indicate that peak oil is not a future event, and in fact occurred roughly 2.5 years ago in May 2005. The peak value was 74.3mbd, and the most recent value (for Aug. 2007) was 72.5mbd -- down by 1.8mbd or 2.5% from the peak:

Considering that this message board is called peakoil.com, and is inhabited by peakoilers, and we've all been told that peak oil will be TEOTWAWKI , it seems a little odd that nobody is talking about the actual event of "global peak oil".

Thus, this thread. Let's talk about how peak oil came and went, and was basically a non-event which hasn't even caused a recession.

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', 'T')he reality is that oil consumption continues at maximum levels until people are forced to drop. So when you see people moving from cars to scooters is when they no longer can afford driving cars.

[PhebaAndThePilgrim]

Good day from Pheba, from the farm:
I usually don't get involved in these arguments. I don't even know what a troll is. I am assuming a troll is a s**t disturber on a forum or chat line.
But, I'm bored today. Ice storms have most folks here in mid-Mo cabin bound. I am fortunate that we heat with wood, and that our electric is not off. My daughter has 3 kids, no heat and no phone. She is staying with her in-laws who heat with wood. I am staying up on the 2nd floor near the computer to keep an eye on my husband. he is on the roof of the barn trying to scrape the ice off before the roof collapses from the weight. Yesterday he did the North roof, which is nearly flat. today he is doing the south side that slopes, and is facing the house, so I am watching him closely. I think the man is crazy sometimes. Okay JD, what makes you think the world is going to unfold on your time schedule? Peak Oil is not an immediate event. This society has become so used to events unfolding right now that thinking long term has become impossible.
I have completely shut up about peak oil. I don't mention it to anybody here in the buckle of the Bible belt, redneck, poor white trash, uneducated worker drone part of our wonderful state of Missouri. People I come in contact with are incapable of thinking past the end of the week. Nevermind thinking about events that unfold slowly. Global warming, peak oil; these are concepts that these poor fools can not wrap their minds around because the media's main goal is to condition our minds to think short term.
I have read the theory that our minds are not capable of thinking long term because of our fight/flight response, etc. that's just bulls**t . Many native American tribes were capable of such thought. Most indiginous people are capable of such thought.
We have just been brainwashed by mother culture from the time we are born to accept what we are told.
Peak Oil is unfolding. And if you don't think it is having an impact just go volunteer once a week at a food bank like I do. I have said it before and I will say it again. Peak oil will impact from the bottom up, not from the stock market down. I see it every day.
While it is true that you don't drive, I am going to assume that you do eat. You think we can all just go back to cute little Victory gardens and feed 300 million people, think again.
My husband and I are farmers. The impact of Peak Oil and the scam of ethanol has been disastrous on cattle farmers.
Listening to Traffic and Pink Floyd and feeling feisty today, so there JD. Just checked on hubby and he is not in a crumpled hump at the base of the barn so all is well here in mid-Mo.
Pheba, from the farm.

[Pops]

Actually, the effect of the slight rise in energy cost recently can be readily seen in each handful of advertisements of early Christmas sales at every trip to the mailbox should one care to consider (or argue) something less than Overnight Armageddon.

Petroleum-based energy costs increased at a 20.6 percent annual rate
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm


A 20.6% increase in energy cost over the last 12 months ending Oct ’07 hardly seems inconsequential, JD.

And of course the graph first posted hardly takes in the entire picture - but that is par for this particular brand of propaganda I suppose.

At some point when the graph of total liquids looks like the one posted, I’ll guess a 20.6%/year increase will seem like the good old days.


P.S. Pheobe, down here in SW MO we have ice too but thankfully not like in Jan.! Our daughter had big winds and the power was out for 4 days – she lives in Hawaii!!!

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ho cares? I don't drive.

[TonyPrep]

JD, many peak oil predictors are still looking at around 2010/2012 for a peak in all liquids. Tar sands production hasn't expanded much to fill in for declining crude, so you're wrong to say that it can scale to any significant degree; Canadian tar sands production is not expected to rise much above 3 mbpd, with optimists talking of 5 mbpd, tops. And that is in about a decade.

As I understand it, NGLs have increased as a byproduct of increasing gas caps in declining oil fields, rather than as some byproduct of natural gas production (which is gas, not liquid). So overall production from oil fields may be kept at a plateau for a little longer than convential crude production would suggest.

Electric vehicles are in their infancy and there certainly won't be enough to satisfy a worldwide demand of 800 million vehicles, and growing, for a very long time yet.

Although you're right that people can switch modes of transport, it can't and won't be done quickly because there aren't enough alternatives around and because people are reluctant to switch. In addition, fewer cars means fewer jobs, more efficient cars means fewer jobs, less miles means fewer jobs. The effects of a switch, if it is made, will still be bad.

Peak oil hasn't affected your country because it has been able to get the supplies it wants by outbidding others or drawing down stocks. The high prices have hit growth and inflation but not as much as they would have 30 years ago, because developed economies are much less energy intensive than they were then. As we're on a bumpy plateau, with, perhaps, a few higher peaks to come, I think it's way too early to say that peak oil is a non-event. Come back a couple of years after significant declines have set in and see where we're at.

By the way, yes I do put a lot of importance on liquid fuels because such fuels are 98% of our transport needs. Maybe alternatives can be found for some of those uses but there is no urgency, at the moment, and if declines accelerate to several percent per year, the alternatives won't be able to keep up. I also see no alternatives for air and sea travel (at least not on anywhere near the scale we have now).

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'J')D, many peak oil predictors are still looking at around 2010/2012 for a peak in all liquids. Tar sands production hasn't expanded much to fill in for declining crude, so you're wrong to say that it can scale to any significant degree; Canadian tar sands production is not expected to rise much above 3 mbpd, with optimists talking of 5 mbpd, tops. And that is in about a decade.